RADIO
We are at the point where many fantasy football GMs/coaches have to make their crucial keeper league decisions. This edition of the King’s Keeper Corner is an essential guide to making your best choices and having the ideal plan heading into the upcoming draft.
Nothing in fantasy football is absolute and every keeper decision is unique. Yet we have laid out many key approaches to making challenging decisions here.
For specific answers to any of your keeper questions, ask them @scottetheking on Twitter and I will answer them in upcoming articles.
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- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
Winning This Season, Not Just Beyond
Top 12 WR Decline Chart via FantasyPros.com
Depending on your league structure, you can often keep one to three players, although some leagues will vary on such requirements. While you lose a round for keeping certain players in many leagues, others will not penalize in that manner at all. Some leagues use contract structures. In any sort of format, fantasy GMs/coaches are always emphasizing youth and how long a player can potentially impact a team. That’s the default first step of keeper evaluation.
Many fantasy players, by default, use age 30 as a marker to start believing a player is “getting old.” That is an old RB-related tale and does not apply to all positions, or even all players. Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros does a great series every year on when players decline at key fantasy positions.
According to his latest research, running backs have a very good chance of slipping in production after the age of 28, not 30. Wide receivers, however, can still be highly productive in their age 31 and 32 seasons. So you cannot apply the same axioms to all positions. You cannot make keeper decisions based solely on youth, either. You have to strongly consider keeping top-notch players who can still deliver one or two more strong seasons.
Julio Jones is a prime example here. He has just turned 31 years old, but that is not truly “old” for a WR yet. He’s getting there, however, you can still get one or two more excellent seasons out of him. Jones finished as WR3 last year and was second in the NFL in receiving yards. He finished No. 11 on the NFL Top 100 for 2020. There is no apparent reason to expect a significant drop-off in production this season based on an age marker of 30 that is a myth. He gives you a great chance to contend in 2020.
It's understandable to lean to youth over older veterans for the most part, yet in the end, you should be keeping the better player, period, if there are no round penalties. Obviously, when there are round penalties the call comes down to who incurs the lower round designation. If the decision is close, though, you should take the better player, period. Jones should win a lot of close keeper decisions. DeAndre Hopkins is 28, and I cannot quite recommend keeping DK Metcalf over him yet in any tight decision.
Also, when you are drafting, do not steer clear of players who can still produce at high levels for 2020. Youth should be your basis and core focus, yet should not completely govern all decisions. Keep both the upcoming season and the future in mind.
Making The Tough Calls
When a keeper league does not require you to sacrifice rounds for players kept, decisions are obviously a bit easier, but still challenging. Certain players may be “no brainers” to retain, yet there are still tight calls to be made as in any keeper format.
For instance, if you keep three players and the first is Michael Thomas, and you can only keep two, the second choice is a very difficult one if it is between Chris Godwin and Miles Sanders. Keeping Godwin would give you the ultimate WR combo in your league. But if you throw Sanders back into the player pool, you may lose out on a possible RB1 and that is more valuable. Running backs are the most highly coveted players in any format and you already have a WR1. Retaining a RB1 is more important than having a luxury at the WR2 spot. You should lean to keeping an “anchor” player at a key position over a “luxury” choice at another. You should keep Sanders in such a situation.
Obviously such close decisions become more complicated when you lose a round for the player you keep. But it’s not always about retaining the better value in terms of rounds lost. If you have a choice between keeping Allen Robinson with a fourth-rounder or Diontae Johnson with a much later pick, you keep the more proven and established high-level player despite the higher penalty.
When you incur round penalties for superstars that are worth it, you should pay the price. If you have to sacrifice a first-rounder to keep Joe Mixon or a second-rounder to keep Dalvin Cook you should not overthink it. If you throw either one back into the player pool they will likely be picked at the value you were not willing to keep them for. Don’t risk losing them in favor of a lesser player with a later round penalty. Keep the best players when they are top-shelf choices, not just the perceived best values.
Positional Depth Considerations
Running back is obviously the position of highest demand in any league. If you have two Top 20 RBs you may have to keep both of them. WR is much deeper and you can utilize high-end WR2s as your No. 1 if you must. If you are able to keep Mixon and Josh Jacobs you should do it, and having a duo of Tyler Lockett and D.J. Moore is very acceptable if it works out that way. Unless you have a very elite WR such as Tyreek Hill or Chris Godwin you should lean to RBs with your top choices. Only Travis Kelce should get consideration as a prime TE keeper. He puts up WR1 numbers at the weakest position in the game. Other TEs such as George Kittle are good keepers but not pure prime choices. You won’t be keeping TEs over RBs in most cases and only a handful may be worth keeping at all.
Lamar Jackson is so unique as a rusher I would personally consider him as the one QB keeper to challenge any other superstar you may consider retaining. I would strongly consider keeping Jackson over many others because he gives you RB type production at QB, and will still have an unmatchable floor in that regard even if he regresses. In yearly leagues he is a back-half of the first round pick to me, so I would strongly consider retaining him over a second-round type player in keeper formats, and you may not have to give up a high pick to do so. In many leagues you can keep a superstar worth a first rounder and Jackson because you likely drafted him much later in previous situations. If there are no round penalties Jackson is a Top 10 overall keeper choice to me.
For the most part, as we all know, QB is deep unless you play in a two QB/superflex league, and only Patrick Mahomes may get strong keeper consideration in standard leagues. In two QB/superflex leagues the quarterbacks get nearly equal keeper consideration with the running backs and the WRs become clear lesser options.
Preparing for the Draft
Most keeper league owners try to guess who other teams will retain once they have pretty much settled on their decisions. It’s a fun exercise, but you can never fully guess what others are thinking, and even if they tell you what they may be considering, they may not be fully forthcoming and could change their minds. Just wait for the other teams’ decisions to roll in first, and then let the draft come to you.
Be wary of pre-draft offers. If your league requires three keepers, getting first-round picks back is not as exciting as it seems. It becomes the equivalent of a fourth-rounder. If you are also getting a lot of offers for a player, such as DK Metcalf, then you know you have someone that all the other people in your league value highly. You should hold onto that player unless you get an offer you simply cannot refuse.
Once the draft starts, it simply is a matter of building around your core. As we advised earlier, focus on “anchor” players at each position. If you kept two RBs, WR has to be a top priority. If you kept one WR and one RB, you should lean to taking an RB and WR with your first two choices. Of course, having a shot at a Lamar Jackson or Kelce could alter such plans. Have a loose plan in mind and go with the flow.
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