Kansas City Chiefs 2020 Fantasy Football Outlook

May 16, 2020

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl victory and looking to repeat in 2020 after a dominant season. Rishi Patel evaluates the fantasy football value of each relevant position (QB, RB, WR, TE) on the team to prepare fantasy owners for draft season.

The Super Bowl champs, the Kansas City Chiefs, return a very potent offense with only one new notable addition. This is one of the most fantasy-friendly offenses in the league, because of their tendency to create fireworks on the field. Therefore, owners have a multitude of options to draft from this team.

All preseason long, I'll be covering each NFL team to forecast their fantasy fortunes in 2020. You can read about the Pittsburgh Steelers here.

Now, let’s dive into the Kansas City Chiefs.

Quarterback

QB Patrick Mahomes is only 24 years old (25 in September) and already has a regular-season MVP and Super Bowl MVP in only two seasons as a starter. He finished 2018 first among fantasy QBs and 2019 eighth among fantasy QBs. Keep in mind that a knee injury hampered Mahomes during mid-season in 2019, which led him to play 14 games. Still, his potential is among the highest in the game. With 4,031 pass yards, 26 touchdowns, five picks, 287.9 passing yards per game, 218 rush yards, and two touchdowns, Mahomes can do anything with his powerful arm and always-churning legs.

The Texas native had a 77.2% on-target throws per pass attempt rate in 2019 and was only sacked 17 times, which was among the lowest for starting QBs. Given his immense upside and rare talent, it’s an easy decision to consider him one of the top two, if not the top, fantasy QB in re-draft leagues.

Running Back

If there were ever any question marks on this Chiefs offense, it would be at RB. Damien Williams led the team last season with 111 rush attempts, 498 rush yards, and five rush touchdowns, while also averaging 4.5 yards per rush and 45 yards per game. He also added 30 receptions, 213 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. He had 3.2 rush yards after contact per rush and 7.7 yards after catch per reception. The rush attempts, rush yards, rushing touchdowns, and receptions were all career-highs for the 28-year-old in his six seasons in the league.

Williams will see competition for snaps after the team drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire out of LSU to conclude the first round of the draft. The 21-year-old finished his junior season in 2019 with 1,414 rush yards, 6.6 yards per rush, 16 rush touchdowns, 55 receptions, 453 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown.

Helaire finished three college seasons with 2,103 rush yards, 5.7 yards per rush, 23 rush touchdowns, 69 receptions, 595 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown. Head coach Andy Reid probably took this kid for a reason, which naturally threatens the fantasy value of Williams.

Both Williams and Edwards-Helaire could end up in a timeshare, thus diminishing their red zone efficiency and overall stats. At this point, the overall fantasy value of Williams and Edwards-Helaire remains uncertain until their playing time is hashed out during the season in which an honest assessment of their value could be made then.

One could break out and take the top role, but it depends on playing time and how the season progresses. Right now, Williams seems the more logical candidate to end up being the starter rather than a rookie. This is the only part of the Chiefs offense that you should consider skipping out on drafting any players until late in re-draft leagues and only for depth purposes.

Wide Receiver

The Chiefs have several stellar wide receivers on their offense. In terms of fantasy, the most relevant are Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Sammy Watkins.

Hill is the WR1 on the team and an elite fantasy option. He chewed up 89/576 targets (15.4%) and accumulated 58 receptions, 860 yards, seven touchdowns, and 14.8 yards per catch last season. 2019 was a bit of a down-year considering the receiver had two 1,000-yard seasons before last season.

Nevertheless, there is no reason to doubt his role on the team and incredible, explosive capabilities on the field.  Hill is worth drafting in the early rounds of re-draft leagues and should be considered a top-five or seven WR.

The other receivers are where things get muddled in terms of fantasy value. Mecole Hardman only got 41/576 targets (7.1%) last year but capitalized with 26 receptions, 538 yards, 20.7 yards per catch, and six touchdowns. The now second-year player has immense speed, as he ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the 2019 combine.

Meanwhile, Sammy Watkins got double the targets of Hardman (90/576, 15.6%), but finished with 52 receptions, 673 yards, 12.9 yards per catch, and three touchdowns. In terms of yardage and touchdowns, Hardman had more touchdowns and slightly less receiving yards than Watkins, who had more targets. Therefore, both bring roughly equal value in fantasy and can be considered WR2s or WR3s since they do play on a high-octane offense.

Finally, Demarcus Robinson can be considered underrated, slept on, or just forgotten in fantasy since he is not often mentioned alongside the likes of Hill, Hardman, and Watkins. Robinson quietly finished with 55/576 targets (9.5%), 32 receptions, 449 yards, 14 yards per catch, and four touchdowns. For his three-year career, the 25-year-old has averaged 12.7 yards per catch, caught eight touchdowns, and played all 16 games during each season. He can definitely be a flex piece in larger re-draft leagues (10-12 teams) considering he plays on a pass-happy offense that can turn on the switch fairly quickly.

Tight End

Travis Kelce is among the most consistent and high-performing players at his position every year in fantasy. He always brings reliability for fantasy owners and being a part of a Patrick Mahomes led-offense now helps that notion.

Kelce finished as the top-performing fantasy tight end in 2016, 2018, and 2019, and second-best in 2017. The Ohio native led the entire Chiefs offense in receiving yards last season, finishing with 1,229, which was fourth among receivers in the league. He also had 97 receptions, five touchdowns, and averaged 12.7 yards per catch. He led the team in targets with 136/576 (23.6 %).  2019 was Kelce’s fourth-straight 1,000-yard season.

Like Mahomes, Kelce can easily be regarded as the top at his position in fantasy and that won’t change in 2020. Draft him with confidence as the top TE in re-draft leagues and don't overthink it.

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