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Michael Florio breaks down the case for Juan Soto to be the second player drafted in 2024 fantasy baseball regardless of league format. Florio breaks down what to expect from Soto and how it compares to those players drafted around him.
I have played fantasy baseball for over 15 years. Never before have I seen a player have a stranglehold on the 1.01 pick like Ronald Acuna Jr. Well, outside of that one day when he had a knee injury scare.
While he is undoubtedly the first pick, there are several names you will hear in talks to go second overall. Names such as Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, or Mookie Betts. While they’re all amazing players, they’re not the ones you should take.
Baseball sharps start drafting while I’m still knee-deep in fantasy football. So when I looked at ADP, I was shocked to see they got one wrong with this player going at the end of the first round when I would argue he should be the second player drafted. Who is this player? The newest Bronx bomber, Juan Soto.
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The Statistical Case for Juan Soto
Soto may be young, but he is extremely proven. He happens to be coming off of arguably a career season. Soto hit a career-high 35 homers, tied his career high with 12 steals, drove in 109, and scored 97 runs while hitting .275 with a .410 OBP. He had a very similar season in 2019 and 2021 (and was on pace for one in 2020).
Very rarely after a career high in home runs will a player be projected for even more the following season. ATC, the most accurate projection system out there, projects Soto for 37 home runs. Sure, the short porch in his new home has a lot to do with that. Soto has a swing built for Yankee Stadium. Last year, he pulled the ball a career-high 39 percent of the time, according to FanGraphs. He easily could swat a career high in those cozy confines. Do not be surprised if Soto hits 40-plus this season.
Juan Soto with a blast for his 4th HR of the spring to tie him for the spring lead.pic.twitter.com/qF9emBy2qM
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) March 10, 2024
Soto also happens to be the Michael Jordan of getting on base. He has posted an OBP over .400 every year he has been in MLB (and this year in spring training as well). He was one of just four qualified hitters last year who walked more than he struck out. His career walk rate is 19 percent, while his strikeout rate is just 17 percent.
And if a career of being extremely consistent regardless of team is not enough -- ATC projections expect Soto to improve in this regard. ATC projects a league-leading .420 OBP from Soto. There is only one other player over .400 and it is Acuna at .402.
Batters yet to Swing & Miss this Spring
(min. 40 Pitches, Statcast)Spencer Jones (62 Pitches)
Juan Soto (47) 📽️pic.twitter.com/V3mHnlgoiy— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) March 5, 2024
Soto can get on base and provide power as well, meaning he gives elite numbers in four of five categories. He is one of four players that ATC projects for 100-plus runs and RBI, with 37 or more home runs. The other three are Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Aaron Judge. Of those four, Soto is the only one projected for double-digit stolen bases.
Now he is headed to the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium in a lineup that provides both protection and run-producing opportunities. Plus, for those who believe in this sort of thing, he is in a contract year. Given the ballpark, the lineup, and how talented and consistent Soto is, the contract year is just the icing on the cake. There is no shortage of reasons to believe that Soto is in store for a huge season.
Juan Soto has a pair of homers tonight at Yankee Stadium.
He was born in 1998. Yes, like THAT 1998. pic.twitter.com/DMAYOq7Lm7
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) June 14, 2018
Why You Should Draft Juan Soto Second
If you play in a head-to-head points league, OBP, or categories league, Soto should be the No. 2 pick off the board. If you get him any later than that -- consider yourself lucky. Why? Because he is an ideal pick in these formats.
In points leagues, players will be awarded points for drawing walks or hitting doubles -- two things Soto does extremely well -- while they are deducted points for strikeouts. Those are all things that do not happen in a traditional roto league. That naturally boosts up Soto in this format. Soto is the ideal points league hitter.
If you play in roto, which uses OBP instead of average, it changes things drastically. While ATC projects Soto for the 21st-best batting average, he is far and away projected to have the best OBP. Taking him second overall in this format would give you a huge leg up on the competition in OBP.
Just like Rodriguez or Carroll help with stolen bases and get pulled up to No. 2 overall because of it, Soto would have the same effect, just in a different category, while also helping more in three of the other four than those players.
If your league is head-to-head categories, which is basically roto broken down into a weekly format, you should also take Soto second overall. As discussed above, Soto is going to provide elite production in four of the five hitter categories. Even though he will not excel in stolen bases, he can still provide some.
The thing is, in this format, you do not need to win every category each week. And you certainly do not need to finish top three in stolen bases like many try to do in traditional roto. If you can win the category some weeks, you will be fine. Even if you punt speed, if you are winning average/OBP, home runs, runs, and RBI most weeks, thanks to Soto, it is worth it.
In fact, in all of those formats, the only player I would consider taking second over Soto would be Betts. Not only is he in a great lineup himself, but he is projected for similar totals. ATC has Betts for 33 home runs, 111 runs, 94 RBI, and 13 steals with a .283 average and .378 OBP.
That gives Soto the leg up on home runs, RBI, and OBP, with Betts a slight edge in runs, steals, and average. However, Betts comes with second base, outfield, and soon-to-be shortstop eligibility. I have to make this decision in my points home league and while I keep going back and forth -- Soto is the pick.
In traditional roto formats, you could push Rodriguez or Carroll ahead of him if you are dead set on getting steals early on. But it is worth pointing out that ATC has 38 hitters projected for at least 20 steals and 64 for 15-plus. With the rule changes, it is easier now to find players that can contribute in that category. Because of that -- the No. 2 pick still comes down to Soto or Betts for me. Given that Soto is in a ballpark tailor-made for his swing, I will chase the untapped upside. We have seen the best already from Mookie.
Lastly, I understand that ADP taking Soto second overall is as the kids say, reaching. You are pulling him up eight or nine spots higher than he goes on average. Who cares? If you have the second pick, that is your only shot at getting Soto. There is not a world where he falls back to you in the second round.
So if you are like me and believe that a career year, maybe even an MVP one (he is my MVP pick), is coming and that Soto will be the second-best player in fantasy baseball -- take him. It does not matter that some will say you pulled him up the board. Or that your draft software email will say you had a bad pick and give you a bad grade. We do not play this game to win on draft day. We play this game to win a championship and making a bold move like drafting Soto second overall will put you on the path to doing so.
Juan Soto (+600) currently has 17% of the handle @DKSportsbook to win AL MVP, the most of any player ✍️ pic.twitter.com/AMSRsBLi22
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) February 27, 2024
Do what is best for your team and “reach” on Soto, who will finish the year as a top-two player in fantasy baseball in 2024.
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