RADIO
Stay, Stay Away
Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers is an awesome example of a player who can begin to age, fight through injury, and still provide great fantasy value. Miggy had injury issues for the majority of the second half of 2013, but he still returned some great value for those owners who invested with a top three pick. However, there are some guys who simply aren't worth the risk when it comes to age and injury vs. fantasy production. In 2015, I'm staying away from Josh Hamilton.
I wanted nothing to do with Hamilton before I got wind of his shoulder surgery on February 4th that will keep him sidelined from baseball activities for at least four weeks. I really don't want to role the dice now that he'll likely be suspended somewhere between 25 and 162 games.* Besides the fact that the shoulder surgery and suspension could hinder already worrisome power numbers, Hamilton looks to be in the midst of a downward hitting trend that started shortly after he signed his five-year deal with the Angels.
*Any suspension will be served concurrently to a stint on the disabled list. The shortest possible suspension is unlikely to affect his playing time due to injury.
The 33-year-old power hitter cut his HR total in half in from 2012 to 2013. He did it again in 2014, due in part to missing about half of the season with a thumb injury. Hamilton had a 28.3% strikeout rate and an 8.4% walk rate in the 89 games he played last year. Although his .263 average looked decent for a power guy, his .350 BABIP hints at luck. If he doesn't fix his strikeout and walk rates, his average will likely sink below .250 in 2015. With his injured shoulder potentially sapping power, even a healthy Hamilton will struggle to hit 20 home runs.
Hamilton is being evaluated in many different ways across the endless amounts of fantasy sites, but it seems like a lot of sites slot him somewhere in the 60-70 range for outfielders. This means that in a H2H points league in which teams start three outfielders no one should be drafting him. Not only is he an untouchable for those H2H points leagues due to his rank, his strikeout and walk rates are difficult to justify in a points format. If you really aren't convinced yet, according to CBS Hamilton only eclipsed the 20-point mark in three out of the 16 weeks that he played in 2014. One of those weeks was the first week, one of those weeks was week 21. The point is, it's almost impossible to know which weeks he will produce, and the weeks that he doesn't (most of the time) he'll be killing your team.
A Roto draft will make Hamilton a little more difficult to avoid as there are usually more roster spots to fill. In a 12-team league, Hamilton is ranked right at that spot where owners will be drafting a fourth or fifth outfielder. In the past, he has been a Roto beast thanks to his high home run totals. However, with the declining power numbers and the recent news of the shoulder injury, there are better outfielders that don't come with so much baggage. Guys like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, Nick Markakis, and even Michael Morse are around the same spot as Hamilton. It is safer investing in one of those guys as my fifth outfielder than an injury-prone, suspended veteran who is slowly fading out of the realm of fantasy relevance.
