RADIO
Washington Redskins WR Josh Doctson is a sleeper and draft day ADP value for 2018 fantasy football leagues. Martin Konstantinov explains why Docston is a player to target in redraft leagues.
When you get to the late rounds of fantasy football drafts, you are chasing upside. You already have your starting rotation of players in the fold; now all that is left is to find that league-winning talent late in your drafts that nobody sees coming.
These value picks serve two purposes: 1) they add depth to your roster and provide valuable cover should your earlier picks falter or get injured and 2) they have the upside to become top-level options in your roster as the season progresses.
One player who is sitting at an incredible value right now that will surely outperform his average draft position (ADP) is Washington Redskins wide receiver Josh Doctson. Doctson is a former first-round draft pick who may finally have the opportunity to break out in a new-look Redskins WR offense.
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Don't Sleep on Doctson
Pros
In college, Josh Doctson was one of the most dominant wide receivers in the nation. With two back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons for TCU as well as 25 combined touchdowns, Doctson was touted as a first-round talent by most draft experts going into the 2016 NFL Draft. Eventually, Doctson was selected with the 22nd overall pick by none other than the Washington Redskins, who had big plans for their future number one receiver. However, Doctson would have his first season cut short after sustaining an injury two games into the year. Despite this setback, Doctson came back for his "true rookie" season in 2017 and had 35 receptions for 502 yards and six touchdowns while playing with quarterback Kirk Cousins. It's clear that Doctson has been improving with each offseason, and this may be no different. With Cousins gone, Doctson gets a new friend in quarterback Alex Smith. Smith is known to have an underrated deep ball (as we saw last year with the Chiefs) and also can force his receivers into good contested-catch positions, something Doctson thrives at but also something that Cousins was unable to commit to throwing to his receiver.
Additionally, Doctson faces light competition for targets in the new offense. With slot receiver Jamison Crowder already having a role in the offense, there is plenty of room for a wide receiver to step in as the team's centerpiece. Tight end Jordan Reed has struggled to stay healthy and should not be relied upon as the team's main offensive weapon this year. Even with a more crowded receiver room and Terrelle Pryor playing as the X receiver for the majority of the season, Doctson was still able to register the second most targets on the team behind Crowder. Now, Pryor is gone and in comes Paul Richardson, a speedy deep threat who will likely take over as the Flanker receiver opposite Doctson. Behind Crowder and Richardson, the Redskins WR depth chart has little star value, meaning that Doctson has a very easy path to the Number One job entering his third season.
With new running back Derrius Guice expected to keep defenses honest, Doctson may face some favorable coverage situations in what should be considered his breakout third season. If he can get heavily involved in the team's offense, over 100 targets is not out of the question. With those amount of looks, Doctson could become a complete receiver, capable of going deep (as we saw last year) but also making contested possession catches for his team.
Cons
You have to consider the fact that the Redskins may not be one of the strongest teams in football next year. However, that doesn't mean that there won't be ample targets to spread around. Even if the team struggles and plays from behind, expect Doctson to be heavily targeted throughout games due to his speed-size combo and presumed role in the offense.
The addition of free agent Paul Richardson could cut into Doctson's targets, although it remains to be seen how he will take to his new team. Richardson caught 44 passes for 703 yards last year, but those were both career highs.
One worrisome stat was Doctson's catch rate last year: With 35 catches on 78 targets, Doctson posted a 44.9% catch rate on the year - which is definitely not a good sign. However, when you consider the difficulty of a lot of those throws and the difference in play between Smith and Cousins as well as Doctson's hopeful progression as a receiver, you should expect his catch rate and overall targets to go up entering the 2018 season, mitigating most of the worry over his hands and catching ability.
Analysis
Despite the fact that Doctson has some question marks around his production and the team's offense overall, the value that you get when you draft the big wide receiver is unbelievable. The wide receiver is currently going 145th overall at the bottom of the 12th round. That is simply incredible for a wide receiver who is slotted in as one of the team's top offensive options and carries a first-round pedigree and track record of success. With the expected improvements to Doctson's stats, you could realistically see him crack Flex/WR2 territory in the upcoming season.
According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Stills is currently being drafted as the 56th wide receiver off the board. Although there are better options around him (like Kenny Stills), the upside of Doctson as a breakout wide receiver is too much to ignore. Even though he may flame out if the team isn't able to get him involved enough throughout the season, Doctson has the makings of a prototypical number one receiver and has the trust of the coaching staff to occupy that role. Anytime you can get a potential breakout wide receiver in the double-digit rounds with the type of upside that Doctson carries, you have to consider him with one of your bench selections. It's clear to see why he is a fantasy sleeper and immense value at the position for this upcoming draft season.
