Josh Constantinou's Bold Predictions For The 2022 Fantasy Football Season

The 2022 season is nearly upon us, which makes this the opportune time for the bold prediction series at RotoBaller. There have already been several great articles in this series, all of which are worth reading. I am excited to be adding four of my own here for you.

The word bold is defined as being "courageous and daring." This means a bold prediction cannot merely be something unlikely to occur, it must exceed that threshold. At the same, if it is only possible as a result of injury or something outrageous occurring, then it has gone too far in the other direction. For example, predicting Jonathan Taylor finishes as the No. 1 overall running back again in 2022 would be an unlikely bet, but not a bold one. Whereas, predicting Taylor will lead all running backs in receptions has gone too far and is no longer evidence-based.

In search of the bowl of porridge that is "just right," I have included four bold predictions for 2022 below, with my last one as my boldest.

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J.K. Dobbins Finishes As A Top-15 Running Back

Let me preface this by saying this is not a suggestion to draft Dobbins, nor is it a declaration that he will active and healthy for Week 1. This is simply about the totality of his season and overall finish.

Dobbins made an incredible impact on the Ravens' offense in his rookie season, climbing the depth chart to supplant Mark Ingram II and join Gus Edwards to form an impressive one-two punch. After Dobbins overtook Ingram in Week 7, joining Edwards as the co-leader in the backfield, he averaged 14 touches per game, 77 yards per game, and 0.8 touchdowns per game. To project that over a full season, he would have had 1,309 all-purpose yards (rushing + receiving) and 14 total touchdowns. 

Dobbins is currently recovering from an ACL injury that ended up sidelining him for much longer than originally anticipated. He started training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform List and wasn't removed until early in August. He appears questionable to play Week 1 and may have a reduced workload to begin the year. Obviously, these are all major concerns for his early season impact, which is primarily why this constitutes a bold prediction.

The flip side though, is that Edwards will start the regular season on the PUP list, guaranteeing he will miss the first four weeks, if not longer. Furthermore, Edwards is a 27-year-old running back attempting to return from a significant knee injury. It's probable that he misses more than four games, not to mention struggles to return to full health as quickly because of his age.

Additionally, the depth chart behind Edwards includes 29-year-old Mike Davis, Justice Hill, and recently signed Kenyan Drake, who was cut from the Raiders because they decided they would rather absorb his $8 million cap hit than keep him on the roster, not exactly a vote of confidence. Clearly, none of these options possess the talent and underlying metrics Dobbins does.

2020 Underlying Metrics

It is not the early part of the year where you should expect Dobbins to make his mark, but rather from about Week 5 onward when he's back to full health and leading this rush-heavy offense.

The two knocks on Dobbins are generally that he does not receive enough passing work and is always in a committee. While the first point may remain true, he'll only need about a 12-15% target share to produce a big year, which is not asking a lot from an offense that currently contains only two legitimate receiving options in Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman.

The second point will continue to exist to some degree in the sense that he will share the backfield, but none of the current options outside of Edwards, pose a real threat to take away significant work.

Each year, there are multiple running backs that finish in the top-15 with less than 50 receptions, even in full-PPR. This is usually driven by high touchdown totals, which will be the path for Dobbins. If we take the pace referenced above and apply it to the final 13 games (Week 5 onward), he would have 182 touches for 1,001 all-purpose yards and 10 touchdowns. Add in a minimal amount of production over the first four weeks and finishing with 200-plus touches for 1,100-plus yards and 12-plus touchdowns is a possible outcome for Dobbins.

Russell Wilson Finishes As A Top-Three Quarterback

Wilson essentially forced his way out of Seattle because they refused to "let Russ cook". He has been a perennial top-12 quarterback throughout his career, including top-nine finishes in each of the past five seasons, except for last year when he missed time due to injury.

Fantasy Finish Past Five Years

Wilson finds himself surrounded by an all-star cast at each of the three key offensive skill positions. At wide receiver, he has Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and K.J. Hamler, at tight end, Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich, and at running back, Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon.

The primary reason he is not viewed as one of the elite fantasy football quarterbacks is his age and the decrease in his rushing production. Typically, it is the dual-threat quarterbacks who finish inside the top-three, which is what makes this particular claim bold.

Despite this steady decline, he still finished with 43 carries for 184 yards and two touchdowns in 14 games last year.  Thus, projecting him to rush the ball about 55-60 times for 240 yards and three touchdowns seems reasonable. This creates a solid baseline of fantasy points before factoring in his passing work.

In 2021, which was his last full season, Wilson threw for 4,212 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns. This was in large part thanks to the tandem of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who will now be replaced by Sutton and Jeudy, along with the additional weapons referenced above.

Furthermore, there has been at least one non-mobile quarterback to crack the top-three each of the past five seasons, including Tom Brady in 2021, Aaron Rodgers in 2020, Jameis Winston in 2019, Ben Roethlisberger in 2018, and Brady again in 2017. The commonality among these individuals is their high passing yards and passing touchdown totals.

Russ will be sizzling in his new kitchen over in Denver with his mile-high production leading him to a top-three finish.

Drake London Finishes As A Top-24 Receiver

London was the first receiver off the board among an extraordinarily talented class, selected eighth overall by the Falcons. While the Falcons are not projected to be a winning team, their negative game script will create additional passing volume. Given that he is currently being drafted as the WR40, finishing inside the top-24 would be surprising, which is the reason why this prediction is bold.

What immediately stands out about London's opportunity is his rank in the depth chart. Although it was not a difficult climb, he still conquered all of the subpar receivers around him to establish himself as their No. 1 option. Additionally, outside of sophomore tight Kyle Pitts and 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson out of the backfield, this receiving corps is extremely unproven.

London was well on his way to a massive Junior year at USC before suffering a season-ending injury, totaling 88 receptions for 1,084 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns in only eight games. Combine this production with his talent, size, and athleticism, and he becomes a nightmare for defenders.

Pro Football Focus (PFF) provides positional grades that are recognized as a reliable measure of talent. London finished with a grade of 91.3, tying him with Wan'Dale Robinson for third overall among all college wide receivers in 2021. Two areas he was particularly impactful were contested catches, where he led all receivers with 17, and missed tackles forced, where he finished eighth overall with 22, both of which were despite missing time. These pair well with his 6'4", 219-pound frame, making him a big target and huge red zone threat. 

Pitts finished his rookie campaign with 110 targets and 1,026 receiving yards. He figures to see a slight increase without Ridley or Gage present, so around 150 targets and 1100-1300 yards seems fair. Even if Pitts were to receive 150 targets and 1,300 yards, that still leaves plenty of opportunity for London to see north of 100 targets and push for 1,000 receiving yards himself.

Mariota averaged 1.3 passing touchdowns per game as a starter, which would project as 22 over a full season. Although this is not enough to get too excited, it would still allow London to catch between five and seven touchdowns in his rookie year.

When you put this all together, it would be reasonable for London to finish in the WR20-24 range, with a similar final line as Tee Higgins, who was the WR22 (half-PPR) or WR24 (full-PPR) last year with 74 receptions for 1,091 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns.

Gabriel Davis Outscores Stefon Diggs In Half-PPR Scoring

I decided to make my boldest prediction my last one. The Davis hype train has been steadily gaining steam all offseason and is one that I've been aboard for over a year now. He tends to be a very polarizing player to discuss because his success has been limited to this point and he of course had the record-setting performance against the Chiefs in the playoffs. Don't worry, that is not the crux of my argument here.

In his first two years, Davis produced 70 receptions for 1,149 yards and 13 touchdowns, which is pretty incredible considering he was only a starter in 15 of the 30 games he played. He was very productive despite receiving minimal targets. During this time, he was buried in the depth chart as the fourth option but now finds himself as the clear No. 2. Thus, 100+ targets this year is a realistic projection, which would vastly outpace the 63 targets and 10.9% target share he received in 2021. 

What stands out most is the touchdown total, averaging 6.5 touchdowns per season in spite of his reduced playing time. This was further evidenced by the stretch he put together at the end of the last season into the playoffs. Including the playoffs, he produced 11 total receiving touchdowns last year, tying him with Dawson Knox for the team lead, giving him one more than Diggs.

All this supports the argument for Davis to have a productive season as a top-24 wide receiver with top-15 upside; however, to be bold, the argument needs to go further. Enter the claim that Davis will outscore Diggs in fantasy. This is the only time I've elected to specify the scoring format, mainly because in full-PPR this would be extremely unlikely, bordering on unrealistic.

Diggs had another impressive year of production in 2021, finishing with a stat line of 103/1225/10 (receptions/yards/touchdowns), totaling 234 fantasy points as a top-10 receiver yet again. His receptions and receiving yards were down from 2020 but his touchdowns were up by two. If we adjust his final numbers accordingly, increasing his receptions to 115 and his yards to 1325 while dropping his touchdowns back to eight, he would project to have 237.5 fantasy points, which seems fair. Now onto Davis.

The Bills finished with 641 passing attempts in 2021 and are expected to be around that 650 mark again in 2022. Diggs had a 26% target share last year, so let's assign Davis a 20% target share as the No. 2  option. This would equate to 130 targets, which factoring in his career catch percentage of 56%, would result in 73 receptions.

Similarly, using his career yards per reception of 16.4 would equal 1,197 yards. It's possible that his catch percentage could improve with a greater variety of targets while his yards per reception could decrease with more volume but for now, we'll leave these as is.

This would provide a baseline of 36.5 fantasy points from his receptions and 119.7 fantasy points from his yards, totaling 156.2 points. This means Davis would require 81.3 points to catch Diggs, also known as 14 touchdowns.

While I actually believe Davis could make up some ground with additional receptions or yards, producing 14 touchdowns is very difficult but not impossible in an offense led by Josh Allen. Diggs may also see a dip in production, reducing the amount Davis needs. In either case, it will require a career year for Davis, which is within the realm of possibility.

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