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Is Jordan Westburg a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Westburg's 2023 fantasy value.
Big league teams enjoy having top prospects debut on Mondays, huh? Jordan Westburg, a 24-year-old selected 30th overall in the 2020 amateur draft, made his debut at SS for the Orioles last night. Westburg begins his MLB career as the third-best prospect in Baltimore's system and 34th overall per MLB Pipeline, and fantasy managers are wondering what to make of him with a 30% roster rate.
Most highly-touted prospects have obvious skills that may or may not translate to fantasy, but Westburg's scouting report doesn't align with his ranking. Other scouting sources are also considerably lower on Westburg, and his MiLB performance doesn't jump off of the page either.
Quite frankly, this author cannot figure out why Westburg has the buzz he does. Let's see if we can figure it out together.
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No Scouting Consensus on Jordan Westburg
First, let's congratulate Westburg on making the major leagues and beginning what will likely be a long MLB career:
A moment @jordan_cw21 will always remember. pic.twitter.com/tYSgS9qQSq
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) June 26, 2023
Big leaguers are rare, but top prospects are expected to become more than big leaguers. Based on Westburg's lofty prospect ranking, you'd expect to see otherworldly contact ability, elite raw power, game-changing speed, or at least a superlative glove.
Per MLB Pipeline, Westburg offers none of these things. His 45-grade hit tool is below MLB average, his 55-grade power tool likely isn't high enough to overcome the new dimensions of Camden Yards, and his 55-grade speed and 50-grade glove are nothing special.
If you read the included scouting report, you get more questions than answers. The write-up notes that Westburg has a "power-over-hit profile with some swing-and-miss to his game" where "the over-the-fence pop shows up more to his pull side." He "can drive the ball to all fields" though, which seems to contradict the previous quote. The report even notes that Westburg is "not a burner," limiting how many steals we should expect.
If that sounds like pouring cold water on a hot prospect, his FanGraphs scouting report will seem like an ice bath. Per FanGraphs, Westburg has a 35-grade hit tool only expected to increase to 40 in the future. His game power is also below average at 45, growing to 55 in time. His 55-grade raw power both now and in the future is troubling too since the scouts are saying the best-case scenario is 20-25 HR.
Westburg's 50-grade speed is fine, but his 40-grade glove could cost him PAs. The overall package ranks ninth in Baltimore's system and isn't in the overall top 100.
Westburg doesn't have a defensive home either. He's logged the most time at SS and made his debut there, but also played 2B, 3B, RF, and LF on the farm. If you're playing five different positions in the minors, the decision-makers are probably preparing you for a future off of the bench. Impact prospects like Elly De La Cruz are not typically treated that way.
This just doesn't seem like a profile with any fantasy juice at all. Westburg has a high floor since he'll probably be a big leaguer for a long time, but his long-term role could be as a reserve.
The MiLB Resume of Jordan Westburg
The baseball world is building hype for Westburg with his MLB Pipeline ranking and his performance this year at Triple-A (Norfolk): .295/.372/.567 with 18 HR and six steals in 301 PAs. They aren't telling you that he played in a league where at least half of the teams are 3,000+ feet above sea level, meaning every game is at Coors-Lite. They also aren't saying that Westburg is unlikely to repeat his .328 BABIP or 25% HR/FB over a larger sample size.
Taken as a whole, Westburg's minor-league numbers are fine. He first made the High Minors in 2021 with Double-A (Bowie), hitting .232/.323/.429 with four homers and three steals in 130 PAs. His 32.9 FB% and 15.4% HR/FB was both low for a power-first guy, though he demonstrated a good eye with a 10.8 BB% against a 24.6 K%.
He returned to Bowie to begin the 2022 season, hitting .247/.344/.473 with nine homers and three steals in 209 PAs. His HR/FB increased to 21.4%, but his 34.1 FB% still had room for improvement. His K% also jumped to 27.3, though in fairness his 12.4 BB% increased as well. Needing a .310 BABIP to hit .247 at Double-A isn't a great sign either.
It's tough to argue that Westburg mastered Double-A, but the Orioles promoted him to Norfolk regardless. He took full advantage of the offense-friendly nature of Triple-A, slashing .273/.361/.508 with 18 HR and nine steals over 413 PAs. His FB% improved to 39.2, but his HR/FB regressed to 17.3%. He was caught stealing thrice for a success rate of 75%, the bare minimum most MLB clubs look for.
Westburg's K% and BB% declined to 21.8 and 10.7, respectively, and he ran a .318 BABIP. The surface stats look fine, but adjusting to more advanced pitchers and a park that suppresses offense would take a lot out of them.
That brings us to this year, where Westburg is again taking advantage of hitter-happy Triple-A. His FB% has fallen to 36.4%, so Westburg hasn't proven he can elevate consistently yet. His 9.6 BB% and 21.3 K% are solid, but not elite.
What To Expect From Jordan Westburg
Projection systems don't like Westburg this year at all. Steamer projects a .244/.317/.414 line with four homers and a steal in 134 PAs. ATC DC projects .238/.305/.395 with five homers and two steals in 141 PAs. THE BAT is only projecting 69 PAs and a .242/.301/.391 line with two homers and a steal. Outside the deepest formats, there's better production sitting on waivers right now.
That could make it difficult for the Orioles to play him too. Jorge Mateo brings elite speed and defense to the table while Ramon Urias and Adam Frazier have been good enough for a team with little incentive to upend the apple cart. While Westburg can play in the outfield, Anthony Santander, Aaron Hicks, Austin Hays, and Cedric Mullins Jr. have that covered. Colton Cowser is also waiting for his call-up, giving the O's another mouth to feed.
The Verdict on Jordan Westburg
Westburg has a good eye, but it isn't elite. He strikes out more than you would expect from his MiLB batting averages, and his raw power isn't special. He likely won't steal many bases, and hitting seventh doesn't provide much fantasy value even in a great lineup like Baltimore's.
Worst of all, we're probably looking at a .250 hitter with 20-25 HR if everything breaks right. The ceiling isn't there, making Westburg a Chump who can safely be ignored.
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