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Jon Anderson's Outfield Tiered Rankings and Projections, Part 1

juan soto fantasy baseball rankings outfield MLB injury news

One more position to cover in my tiered rankings! We've gone over everything else so far, so check out the rest of those posts if you've missed them!

Today, we'll cover the first half of my outfield tiers. I have ranked 74 outfielders for this, and this post covers the first 40 of them. Once again, I have a bit of a different list as compared to what you see from the ADP, which I think makes things interesting here.

As always, you should really not be drafting your team just based on ranks. Every pick changes the landscape of your team in a categories situation, so you have to be very mindful of where you're strong and where you're weak. Anyways, let's proceed with the first six outfielder tiers!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Tier 1 - The Elite or Possibly Elite

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Fernando Tatis Jr. 1 1.9 614 111 43 104 26 .285
Juan Soto 2 4 662 113 36 105 10 .313
Ronald Acuna Jr. 3 12 590 108 37 84 23 .281
Bryce Harper 4 9 645 104 37 101 14 .278
Mookie Betts 5 14 658 113 31 86 14 .280
Kyle Tucker 6 12 611 88 32 95 16 .279
Mike Trout 7 13 594 100 38 97 7 .281
Luis Robert 8 18 599 88 29 84 18 .286

I could have easily split this off into two tiers, probably drawing the line after Juan Soto there and putting him and Tatis in their own group. With so many tiers to cover, though, I figured I'd make this a bigger group.

There is a big difference between Tatis and Trout in terms of ceiling, and a big difference between Tatis and Robert in terms of the floor - so these players are certainly not interchangeable just because they're in the same tier. What is true to me though is that all of these guys have legitimate shots to be the #1 outfielder when the dust settles. They all contribute at least a little bit in steals, and they're all quite strong everywhere else as you can see by the projections.

I'm a big-time believer in Robert; I think we'll be seeing him as an easy top-10 pick next year - so I want to get my hands on this second-round value as often as I can.

 

Tier 2 - Missing A Little Something

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Teoscar Hernandez 9 29 596 87 34 96 11 .266
George Springer 10 57 591 95 35 84 6 .264
Starling Marte 11 32 604 92 17 66 37 .277
Yordan Alvarez 12 28 614 93 38 107 1 .281
Aaron Judge 13 36 627 98 39 97 5 .276
Cedric Mullins 14 32 643 89 23 64 27 .262

Each player here falls a bit short of great in at least one category, but these are all perfectly fine consolidation prizes as OF1 for your fantasy squad if you fill up infield first. Marte is a great guy to grab in the third or fourth round if you miss on steals with your first two picks, but you can see that he is lacking in the power categories which does hurt quite a bit. I'd rather not have to draft him, but if the draft falls that way, I'm perfectly happy taking him to catch up on steals in a hurry.

My favorite of the group is probably Yordan, who won't steal any bases, but I think he could be a league leader in homers and RBI while hitting above .290, and I don't think more than a handful of hitters even have that in the range. The leap of faith pick is Mullins, who was a top-five outfielder last year but there are some doubts about repeatability there.

 

Tier 3 - Enter the Risk

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Nick Castellanos 15 57 637 91 31 94 3 .279
Bryan Reynolds 16 90 630 84 25 85 5 .285
Byron Buxton 17 62 498 79 29 74 15 .270
Tyler O'Neill 18 49 542 79 31 82 13 .255
Whit Merrifield 19 31 656 88 12 65 30 .282
Ketel Marte 20 79 610 85 22 78 5 .292

There are three decent steals sources here, but this tier comes with a ton of risk in one way or another. We don't know where Castellanos will end up, and it will be interesting to see how much he was benefited from a few years in Great American Ballpark.

Buxton and O'Neill are the lottery tickets here, and they're quite expensive at that. They both have top-10 upside with their elite raw power and speed but have serious question marks in terms of health (Buxton) and strikeout rate (O'Neill).

I am willing to reach on Marte, but I'm drafting him to fill my second base slot, not outfield. I think this 22-homer projection is super soft, and I think his upside is legitimately 35 homers, 90 RBI, and a .300 batting average. He's a potential stud.

 

Tier 4

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Eloy Jimenez 21 59 586 75 31 92 1 .270
Giancarlo Stanton 22 90 579 79 35 93 1 .263
J.D. Martinez 23 85 625 85 30 95 1 .274
Randy Arozarena 24 58 598 86 23 72 19 .262
Jesse Winker 25 107 567 84 28 79 2 .286

You can still grab some steals here with Arozarena, but after you get outside of the top-50 ADP, it gets really tough to find them - that fact has elevated Arozarena's ADP once again despite his questionable power and batting average production. Eloy is the top dog here, but he's still more of a power specialist - although it's not crazy to think he could post quite a good batting average as well.

It is still pretty easy to find homers and RBI in this tier, but you're definitely giving up steals and probably batting average too from here on out.

 

Tier 5

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Cody Bellinger 26 95 574 81 28 82 9 .244
Christian Yelich 27 97 592 87 23 74 13 .264
Ryan Mountcastle 28 103 612 78 33 89 4 .263
Akil Baddoo 29 167 556 74 18 60 20 .244
Mitch Haniger 30 106 638 89 31 87 2 .248
Tommy Edman 31 86 617 83 12 58 23 .268
Kyle Schwarber 32 125 566 83 34 82 2 .244

Maybe I spoke too soon on the death of stolen bases because Edman and Baddoo are here in Tier 5. Those two are likely to bring your team down in power numbers, so this really is a "choice tier". You have the two potential fantasy studs at the top with Bellinger and Yelich, but it is probably foolish to think they can get back to their old ways with all the injury stuff they've been dealing with.

As for safety, there's not much here. You really can't be confident in what you'll get with any of these names, but there are reasons to draft all of them - again it's all about how you've built your team up to this point.

 

Tier 6

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Kris Bryant 33 88 587 84 23 72 7 .257
Jarred Kelenic 34 136 542 67 21 67 12 .233
Alex Verdugo 35 157 607 85 16 67 6 .286
Austin Meadows 36 133 570 78 25 82 6 .246
Trent Grisham 37 136 583 82 19 65 15 .246
Hunter Renfroe 38 164 552 75 32 86 2 .241
Joey Gallo 39 172 592 86 38 88 5 .210
Andrew Benintendi 40 198 556 67 17 69 10 .268

This tier rounds out my top-40. There is a ton of upside here, as I think guys like Kelenic, Meadows, Grisham, and Benintendi could all be 20/20 guys while not being completely murderous on batting average. I quite like this tier up and down. I will be dipping my toes in this tier in every draft I partake in.

My favorite is probably Kelenic just because of what he showed late last year, really crushing the ball and stealing some bags - his upside is enormous and he's priced down quite a bit because of how awful he was in his first stint last year. I also like the bounceback bet on Grisham, who should get the opportunity to lead off for the Padres after the departures of Adam Frazier and Tommy Pham - but that's far from a certainty.

Benintendi is also quite cheap, as his really solid 2021 season went largely unnoticed. You can feel pretty good about steals there, and even some decent batting average, and he should chip in at least a bit in homers.

That's it for the top six tiers, we'll cover the rest of my outfield rankings next time! Check back soon!



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