Jon Anderson's Early Outfield Tiers & Rankings for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

2 years ago by Jon Anderson

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11. More Fantasy Baseball Advice

Welcome back RotoBallers to my early 2023 fantasy baseball rankings and projections series! Today, we are covering the outfield, and it's a monster! Here is what we've done so far:

I am putting my top 80 or so outfielders into this, so we'd better get started.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

Tier 1 - Game Breakers

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Julio Rodriguez	SEA	1	1	625	102	31	76	30	.276
Kyle Tucker	HOU	2	1	618	89	31	96	25	.275
Ronald Acuna Jr.	ATL	3	1	668	97	27	73	38	.252
Aaron Judge	NYY	4	1	679	105	44	115	13	.298
Yordan Alvarez	HOU	5	1	624	101	39	120	1	.309

There is no shortage of outfielders you can grab first-round production from. By my count, there are 11 of them that I could see having massive seasons. However, these five do stand out a little bit above the rest due to their five-category upside.

True, you can't get steals out of Yordan - but I think you can get 50 homers and a .300 batting average - and you can't say that for anybody else besides Judge, so that's why he makes the top tier. I would be perfectly happy starting my team with any of these names, and most likely I will be in leagues where you have to field five outfielders. The position thins out pretty quickly so you want to be aggressive on the outfield in deep leagues.

Tier 2

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Mookie Betts	LAD	6	2	619	107	32	82	17	.272
Juan Soto	SD	7	2	620	85	26	79	8	.264
Mike Trout	LAA	8	2	516	90	38	92	2	.271
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	9	2	640	100	45	103	8	.251
Adolis Garcia	TEX	10	2	652	79	30	98	25	.243
Luis Robert	CWS	11	2	600	77	19	81	21	.282

Betts and Soto could and maybe should be in Tier 1, but I just think the upside is a little bit lower. With Betts, that's because his steals have slowed down a bit and he's not a real 40-homer threat. With Soto, it's because he takes so many walks and hits so many ground balls that it's tough to see a huge homer season from him unless he makes some approach changes.

Any of the top three there will fall into the second round, which is great. I might be a little higher than the field on the next three there, but I really like Schwarber's batting average potential with the shift gone and I love the 30-20 upside of Garcia and Robert.

Tier 3

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Michael Harris II	ATL	12	3	588	81	22	82	31	.275
Cedric Mullins II	BAL	13	3	664	87	18	58	35	.245
Randy Arozarena	TB	14	3	654	78	21	82	30	.251

This is the end of the elite crop of talent, but we have three more 20-20 guys here so it's tough not to love them. The batting average is down a bit once you get here, and I can't really see any of these guys clearing 30 homers - but you are getting production across the board from this group. I love getting one of them as my second outfielder.

Tier 4

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Eloy Jimenez	CWS	15	4	610	77	27	96	0	.270
Teoscar Hernandez	SEA	16	4	618	82	32	106	12	.271
George Springer	TOR	17	4	618	101	28	74	17	.265
Starling Marte	NYM	18	4	575	88	16	66	34	.285
Byron Buxton	MIN	19	4	441	64	31	81	14	.257

We still have a big upside here in Tier 4, but you are giving up a category or taking on a lot of injury risk with all of these guys. I love Eloy if he can stay healthy, I think Teoscar's power and RBI potential are underrated - and I think he has an outside shot at 20 steals too if the new rule changes turn out to be a big impact.

With Marte, you have the questions about his declining steal rate and he's never been a confidence pick in the homers and RBI category, but he does a little bit of everything and did lead the league in steals in 2021. Buxton is just Buxton again, 30-20 upside again but hard to believe he can play a full year. Even with the 441 PA projection here, you can see what he's capable of.

Tier 5

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Seiya Suzuki	CHC	20	5	598	68	25	84	15	.254
Jake McCarthy	ARI	21	5	564	61	10	56	33	.259
Bryan Reynolds	PIT	22	5	637	87	23	75	8	.264
Taylor Ward	LAA	23	5	582	89	23	65	6	.263
Anthony Santander	BAL	24	5	611	73	30	95	1	.251

I like this group a good amount, too. I really like Suzuki and Ward at their current cost, I think those are potential five-category performers there as lesser-known guys who showed huge upside in spurts last year. The rest of the tier is a little bit "boring," but all very solid picks at the right cost.

Tier 6

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Kris Bryant	COL	25	6	524	68	14	56	8	.252
Steven Kwan	CLE	26	6	599	79	4	42	23	.288
Nick Castellanos	PHI	27	6	617	74	20	84	6	.262
Giancarlo Stanton	NYY	28	6	514	69	34	96	0	.245
Tyler O'Neill	STL	29	6	527	63	23	68	21	.236
Hunter Renfroe	LAA	30	6	532	69	27	86	2	.248
Riley Greene	DET	31	6	550	61	18	64	3	.270
Austin Meadows	DET	32	6	536	69	15	45	6	.264
Corbin Carroll	ARI	33	6	546	70	15	46	7	.246
Bryan De La Cruz	MIA	34	6	464	55	27	55	5	.273
Ramon Laureano	OAK	35	6	599	69	23	62	22	.237
Christian Yelich	MIL	36	6	615	72	12	46	18	.238
Lars Nootbaar	STL	37	6	476	54	16	54	8	.234

Now things open up. This is a mixed bag of guys. My favorites here are probably Riley Greene (love to see what he can do in year two), Ramon Laureano (underpriced after a tumultuous couple of years), and Kris Bryant (if he's healthy this year, he'll probably perform like a Tier 4 outfielder, and all the reports right now are that he's healthy).

Tier 7

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Brandon Nimmo	NYM	38	7	654	86	16	55	7	.263
Ian Happ	CHC	39	7	606	67	18	71	11	.251
Oscar Gonzalez	CLE	40	7	546	68	16	65	2	.273
Jesse Winker	MIL	41	7	513	56	17	63	1	.256
Harrison Bader	NYY	42	7	541	62	11	54	21	.244
Alex Verdugo	BOS	43	7	624	76	12	77	5	.286
Manual Margot	TB	44	7	541	65	10	56	17	.276
Andrew Benintendi	CWS	45	7	563	70	12	55	11	.277

And now you're onto guys you probably don't want to be starting in a standard league. You are giving up something big with each of them (mostly power), and there's not a ton of real upside in the group (except for Gonzalez as a young guy who played really well late last year).

Tier 8

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Max Kepler	MIN	46	8	530	61	15	64	11	.264
Mitch Haniger	SF	47	8	586	69	28	81	1	.241
Michael Conforto	SF	48	8	513	55	15	61	1	.257
Tyrone Taylor	MIL	49	8	464	63	20	62	8	.246
Tommy Pham	BOS	50	8	524	56	13	52	11	.225
Charlie Blackmon	COL	51	8	557	66	12	66	4	.278
Mike Yastrzemski	SF	52	8	571	71	21	64	7	.240
Joc Pederson	SF	53	8	501	60	23	74	3	.251
Austin Hays	BAL	54	8	585	73	17	67	6	.248
Jake Fraley	CIN	55	8	473	45	13	43	17	.227
Lane Thomas	WAS	56	8	555	64	14	43	12	.228

More bench bats, but some upside re-appears. I think Kepler can get the batting average above .240 this year with the shift change, but admittedly this .264 projection is much too high. Then you have some sneaky power guys with Haniger, Conforto, Yastrzemski, and Pederson - but they all have playing time questions on that team.

Lane Thomas and Tommy Pham are probably better for fantasy than they are given credit for, so I am okay with them as reserve outfielders - but overall they're unexciting.

Tier 9

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Brandon Marsh	PHI	57	9	478	61	14	53	13	.247
A.J. Pollock	SEA	58	9	459	61	16	57	7	.261
Jarred Kelenic	SEA	59	9	410	47	17	46	11	.199
Trayce Thompson	LAD	60	9	385	49	18	53	11	.240
Jurickson Profar	FA	61	9	528	55	8	47	10	.256
Cody Bellinger	CHC	62	9	488	52	15	51	15	.225
Jorge Soler	MIA	63	9	508	55	22	68	0	.239
Juan Yepez	STL	64	9	316	39	11	37	0	.215
Avisail Garcia	MIA	65	9	577	55	17	65	9	.229
Michael Brantley	HOU	66	9	447	64	8	48	2	.300
Masataka Yoshida	BOS	67	9	--	--	--	--	--	--
Lourdes Gurriel	ARI	68	9	558	62	11	56	3	.269
Trent Grisham	SD	69	9	537	62	16	56	13	.205
Myles Straw	CLE	70	9	480	49	3	35	25	.244
Leody Taveras	TEX	71	9	513	50	9	43	24	.219

Now we're just into "the rest." There will probably be a few really good seasons that come out of this group, but I can't tell you who that will be with any amount of confidence.

The safety picks here are probably Pollock and Profar, and the upside goes to Kelenic, Bellinger, Yepez, and Yoshida (who I'm not even doing a projection for, I just have no idea).

Tier 10

Player	Team	Rank	Tier	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	72	10	492	51	16	60	7	.238
Mark Canha	NYM	73	10	565	58	13	54	9	.244
Kevin Kiermaier	TOR	74	10	414	54	9	45	13	.254
Esteury Ruiz	OAK	75	10	414	36	3	26	5	.221
Akil Baddoo	DET	76	10	417	42	6	30	19	.220
Joey Gallo	MIN	77	10	454	46	24	54	4	.186
Marcell Ozuna	ATL	78	10	430	58	18	59	1	.233

And I round it out with these names. They are all either boring veterans who can do something for our team while they're playing or younger guys who could steal some bags if they find playing time.

Ruiz is interesting as a guy who will likely attempt steals at a rate higher than any other player in the league. The trade to Oakland also makes it more likely that he finds some playing time, but the guy doesn't seem like a Major League hitter at this point. It's possible that he still finds a way to steal 25-30 bags even if a lot of them are from pinch running. You could do worse for a 40th-round pick as a fifth or bench outfielder.

And that is the outfield for you. If you were looking for someone you didn't see, it's probably because I ranked them at their other position earlier in this series (Varsho, Lux, etc.). Hope this helps, thanks for reading!

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