JB's Bold Predictions for 2021

March 24, 2021

JB continues RotoBaller's Bold Predictions series with 10 outside-the-box calls for the 2021 fantasy baseball season.

I'm going to let you in on a little secret... JB stands for "JUST BOLDNESS".

Okay that's a lie... it's actually not a secret because I use that every year in my bold predictions intro (three years in a row now, sure saves time on writing a new intro though). Nevertheless, welcome to the latest rendition of RotoBaller's 2021 Bold Predictions. You have now come to the stop where you will be blindsided by more boldness, and yet more accuracy, than anywhere else in the entire industry.

I hope you enjoy my rowdy predictions for 2021. When you're done, please check out the rest of my colleagues' fresh takes for the upcoming season (links at bottom).

Diego Castillo is a top-15 RP

If you know me at all or have read any of my material you knew this was coming. My love for Castillo knows no bounds, and my FrankenAce strategy will continuously have me scooping him up at crazy values in drafts. It blows my mind knowing people will take relievers like Daniel Bard over Castillo all for the "chance" at a few more saves. *Editors note - this prediction initially also included my other boo Drew Pomeranz but obviously it was put on hold until we see some updates regarding his forearm tightness. 

Castillo is already a stud, but continues to get better as we saw in 2020. He threw his slider at a surprising 64.7% clip, and despite the slight dip in K-rate from previous seasons the results were very promising. He posted career-bests in O-Swing%, Contact%, and SwStr% while boasting a 2.13 GB/FB and 24.1 Hard%. As I said prior to the 2020 season, this guy is the perfect blend of velocity, stuff, strikeout potential, soft contact, and keeping the ball on the ground. Castillo was one of only two relievers with a GB% above 60, Hard% below 25, and at least a strikeout per inning. (Victor Gonzalez was the other). Diego and Peter Fairbanks came up clutch for the Rays in the postseason while Nick Anderson was experiencing a nuclear meltdown, and I think anything under 10 saves projected for Castillo for 2021 is ill-advised. So 10+ Saves with great ratios and 70+ strikeouts currently drafted as the 30th RP. Blasphemy!

Aaron Bummer and Victor Gonzalez lead their leagues in ERA

ERA and WHIP ratios are so important in fantasy, it's basically like having two BA categories for hitters. Wouldn't you weigh the high-average hitters much more heavily if it accounted for 40% of the roto hitting categories? Everyone would be drafting BA-anchors, which is exactly what I do with pitching - and have been doing with Aaron Bummer and Victor Gonzalez this draft season.

Man what an incredible season Bummer could have had, but a biceps strain forced him to miss most of the season. But after a full recovery I am right back on the Bummer-train for 2021. I love that the Liam Hendriks signing is burying the ADP in the mud because now we get to see this new strikeout plus negative launch angle black-magic over a full season. From the very truncated 2020 sample, we saw a big increase in sinker usage with its -14 LA, and a big increase in RPM for the slider. He threw the slider nine times, and generated an 85.7 whiff% and zero batted ball events. Do you remember peak-Zack Britton in his Baltimore days with three straight seasons with an ERA under 2.00? Remove the saves and that's the potential for Bummer in 2021.

Gonzalez got his first taste of the major leagues in 2020, and he just so happened to get a World Series ring along the way. The lefty was phenomenal in the small sample, and as I stated previously he was the only other RP with Diego Castillo to possess a GB% above 60, Hard% below 25, and a strikeout per inning. He successfully avoided a single barrel through 52 batted balls, averaged a -2.4 launch angle, and owned the fourth-lowest xERA in the league. These MLB hitters aren't ready for Victor G, and he's been dealing as expected in the Cactus League this spring allowing just one hit over 6.1 scoreless innings. Expect a lot more of that.

Chad Green is a top-20 RP

Since 2017 Green has the third most wins among relievers (sorry not counting you anymore Yarbrough). Across all those 218 innings he also boasts a 34.2 K%, 2.77 ERA, and 0.95 WHIP. So he's been Green money for four seasons now and I've rostered him every year, but what makes 2021 different to vault him in fantasy value? Well for the first time the Yankees absolutely need him. There is no Dellin Betances, or Adam Ottavino, or Tommy Kahnle - Chad Green is finally the top RHP in the bullpen. To make things worse for the Yankees (but better for Green's fantasy value) now Zack Britton is having a procedure to remove bone chips from his throwing elbow with no current timetable to return.

Outside of the bullpen, the Yankees rotation after Gerrit Cole has zero safe bets for volume this season. Jameson Taillon has pitched 37 innings in the last two seasons. Corey Kluber has thrown 36 innings last two seasons. Jordan Montgomery totaled 51 IP last two seasons. Domingo German was suspended all of 2020. You see what I'm getting at? There will be SO many relief innings in New York this season, and I don't see them primarily going to 38 year old Darren O'Day. (*this is also a pro- Jonathan Loaisiga post though)

2021 Chad Green will be 2019 Seth Lugo. ~80 innings, over 100 strikeouts, ERA under 3.00, WHIP under 1.00, with a healthy number of W and a modest handful of saves. Draft accordingly.

The highest-ranked MIN RP is not Alex Colome, Taylor Rogers, or Tyler Duffey

Obviously, the three relievers named here will be the top three in saves for the Twins in 2021, but as we saw with Devin Williams last season, saves are not necessary for a RP to be valuable to your fantasy squad. Speaking of Devin Williams, if you asked who I thought had the best chance to seemingly come out of nowhere and become a dominant reliever this season, it would be Jorge Alcala. Did you know the rookie tied Duffey among current Twins relievers with most innings out of Minnesota's bullpen in 2020, and he boasted a 2.63 ERA to boot? Out of his 16 appearances, eight went for multiple innings, including a three-inning appearance against the Royals where he struck out six.

Being mentored by LaTroy Hawkins, Alcala has carried that success over to spring training this year where he has only allowed two hits through seven innings and his fastball is already hitting 99 mph on the radar gun. The recent success can be mostly attributed to the advances he's made with his secondary pitches. He now boasts an 88 mph slider that generated a 38.9 Whiff% while holding opposing hitters to a .205 BA and 82.8 EV, and a changeup that generated a 40 Whiff% of it's own while holding hitters to a lowly .111 BA and 82.0 EV.

The key to a full-season breakout in 2021 is increasing the usage of his changeup, much like we saw out of Devin Williams in 2020. Alcala only threw the changeup 36 times last season (8.9%). Despite the changeup's effectiveness, LHB still hit the RHP hard, to the tune of a .454 wOBA compared to just .190 for RHB. It's apparent the high-velo fastball and slider combo is working already for right handed matchups, but the changeup has to increase to gain control over the lefties.

The main contributor to Alcala's fantasy value in 2021 will be volume and comfort. The two leading inning-eaters from 2020 out of the Twins pen, Tyler Clippard and Matt Wisler are now gone. Alex Colome and Taylor Rogers' innings will be limited to mostly ninth-inning opportunities (match-up pending), and Tyler Duffey has looked completely toasted this spring training (11.57 ERA, 2.57 WHIP, FB Velo down). Considering he is still just 25 years old and was relied on so heavily in 2020, I see Alcala picking up most of the slack in 2021. Like Chad Green and the Yankees, Alcala should benefit from the 3-5 Minnesota starters (Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker) whose average age is 35 years young.

When it comes to comfort, Alcala said it did not hit him mentally that he even belonged in the big leagues last year until that 3 IP appearance vs KC, even saying he was shocked that it was his name that came over the bullpen phone. He also allowed ALL seven of his earned runs away from Target Field - some luck sure, but also being comfortable on the road. Lastly, the Twins added two relievers this off-season that are from Alcala's home, the Dominican Republic (Hansel Robles and Alex Colome) which he has already shown his appreciation for. Believe me when I tell you that the hitters in the league do not want Alcala to become more comfortable on the mound, although I fear for them that it is too late.

Despite combining for just one save - Tyler Duffey and Wisler both outranked Taylor Rogers in fantasy last season. While I don't expect Rogers to struggle again, nor Colome to struggle quite like he has in ST thus far, I foresee them cannibalizing each other enough all year in terms of saves to not be able to catch Alcala in the rankings due to the number of innings, wins, strikeouts, and accompanying ratios.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a top-30 SP and finishes ahead of Jesus Luzardo 

Okay, I'm done with RP now I promise, and I'm going to go with the easiest pick of the list here as E-Rod is the biggest ADP value in the entire sport this season. Yes he had heart issues last year from COVID that forced him to miss 2020's short charade, but he is one year removed from 19 W, 200 IP, 213 K, 3.81 ERA. Do people not realize how valuable that would be this season? He is still just 27 years old, is expected to be the main workhorse in that rotation, and he is healthy. He's proven it thus far in ST with 11.2 IP, 14 K, 2.31 ERA, and 0.69 WHIP, and was recently named the Opening Day starter by Alex Cora.

You can try and play doctor all you want, and diagnose risks to taking Rodriguez in your drafts. You can take the approach of "I need to see it this season before I pay for it", and let me keep enjoying this easy money value. Jesus Luzardo has only thrown 100 IP in a season once in the minor leagues and has an ADP of 99.67. E-Rod's ADP this month is at 205.80. It seems like you are in fact willing to pay for it before you see it, just for the wrong guy.

Matt Chapman leads the AL in HR

2020 was definitely a disappointment for fantasy managers who rostered Matt Chapman, mostly thanks to a hip injury that cut his season short after 37 games, but we saw things that make me believe a huge power breakout is coming for the 27-year-old. After two seasons with a groundball rate north of 40%, Chapman decided he was done trying to beat out throws to first. He raised both his LD% and FB% by more than seven points each and entered Mike Trout territory with a minuscule 25.8 GB%. Chapman enjoyed career-high Barrel% and EV that both ranked in the top two percent of the league at a ridiculous 18% and 93.6 MPH. The entire slew of Statcast numbers were just video game-level. The LA, sweet-spot%, and Max EV were all higher than Trout, who is projected to lead the AL in HR by ATC's projections, and even topped the Statcast-king Miguel Sano.

It doesn't necessarily help the argument against Trout or Joey Gallo, but Chapman plays in a fantastic division for hitting bombs. Ballparks aside, the AL West housed some of the worst pitching staffs in the league last year - and despite some pickups and acquisitions, I don't foresee that fact changing much in 2021. The Angels, Mariners, and Rangers all were in the top half of the league in homers allowed, and the Astros just potentially lost their #2 SP for an extended period of time (potentially all season). The poor Rangers don't even have enough healthy bodies to field a bullpen right now.

Chapman appears to be recovered from his hip injury and has already left the yard twice in spring training. The BA and SB department will leave you wanting more, but with this new 99-power approach over a full season the HR potential is through the roof.

Justin Upton (Top-40 OF) and Starlin Castro (Top-20 2B) Redux - Both set career highs in RBI

I made bold predictions on both these guys in last year's rendition, and obviously it did not go well. But I'm not looking at it as a swing and miss, but more like a foul tip as I was just a year early.

2020 was definitely ugly for Upton, but did you know in his last 67 PA he hit five HR with a .284 BA? His EV and LA were both career highs, and it has carried over into Cactus League play where he's already blasted three bombs in just 30 PA while sporting a .333 BA. He's hitting over 30 bombs this year, and if he stays healthy, which I have no reason to doubt at this moment, Upton will cruise past his 109 RBI personal-best and finish as a top-40 OF in fantasy. He is currently being drafted as the 86th OF. Fun fact, Upton is the only player whom I have on 100% of my NFBC teams this season.

I know it's now been over a year and he was a Marlin and all, but did you pay attention to Starlin Castro after the All-Star Break in 2019? At the ASB, he was hitting .245 with just six HR, so he decided to make a few adjustments at the plate. He then proceeded to hit .302 with 16 bombs in his last 300 PA. His strikeout and ground ball percentage decreased, and his pull and hard-hit percentages increased. 2020 was a lost season after a fractured wrist but he is back as the starting second baseman for the Nationals who have added Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber to the lineup ahead of him. Like Upton, Castro is also hitting .333 in ST through 32 PA with four XBH. He is currently being drafted as the 34th second baseman despite BA projections over .270 from The Bat and ATC. He hit 22 HR and 86 RBI (career-best) in 2019 in the lineup with the likes of Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, and Martin Prado. I'll take that as the baseline for 2021.

Wil Myers goes 30/15, is a top-15 OF

I personally don't even see this prediction as being bold, considering Myers hit 58 HR and stole 48 bases between 2016 and 2017. Then injuries struck in 2018 and a down season in 2019 led to one hell of a bounce back 2020 campaign. Why is he being drafted as the 33rd OF in drafts right now? 2020 saw career-highs in EV, Barrel%, and Hard-hit% for Myers, and he smacked 15 HR in just 218 PA. The .288 BA was on pace to be a personal-best since his rookie season in 2013, and was backed by a .285 xBA.

Considering he's hitting the ball harder than ever and that he's already hit 30 HR in a season, that box seems like an easy check. The speed might seem iffy considering he only attempted three steals in 2020 - but again he stole 77 bases in the four previous seasons (through oblique and foot injuries) and his 2020 sprint speed still ranked in the top 85 percentile. Lastly, it's easy to consider the .288 BA as an outlier considering his career .254 average, but I don't think it can be discarded so quickly considering he made a swing change noted here by my colleague Mike Kurland:

It all seems fairly fluke-proof, and it certainly is a rare and treasured skillset in today's fantasy landscape. He was the 23rd ranked hitter overall last season, and you can now take him around pick ~130 in 2021 drafts.

An Angel wins the AL batting title, but it's not Mike Trout or David Fletcher

I always expected Jose Iglesias to hit for a good average since his early days in Boston, but even I was surprised by his 2020 season. In just 150 PA he boasted a ridiculous .373/.400/.556 slash and a career-high (by a mile) 162 wRC+. He's always been a good contact hitter with low K-rates, but this go-around he increased the quality of the contact and posted career bests in EV, Barrel%, and Sweet Spot%. Despite a low HR total, these weren't just cheap hits. He owned the highest line drive percentage in baseball and his 17 doubles were good for fifth-best despite almost 100 less PA than everyone else on the leaderboard.

The best way to hit for a high average in baseball, other than just hitting it out of the park, is hitting line drives where the fielders aren't, and it seems like Iglesias has that figured out based on 2020's small sample. I don't expect a repeat of anything near the .373 mark from last year, nor his .356 xBA but this blend of contact and line drive profile has me excited to see a full season hitting in the best lineup of his career. Iglesias is currently being drafted as the 39th SS this season, and I have very high exposure on him in my leagues as a late-round MI BA boost that I happily grab shortly after ~pick 400.

The Red Sox make the playoffs, finish ahead of Tampa Bay in the AL East

Homer Alert! But honestly, I think this team surprises many this season and grabs a wildcard berth by the skin of their teeth. The core hitters of Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Christian Vazquez I still think holds up against any other in the league. Then they gave Alex Cora as much offensive flexibility as you could possibly imagine by acquiring three super-utility players in Kike Hernandez, Marwin Gonzalez, and Danny Santana (injury return TBD). Bobby Dalbec and Michael Chavis have been tearing the cover off the ball in ST, Franchy Cordero and Hunter Renfroe can hit the ball 500 feet... this offense is going to produce a lot of runs.

Obviously, the main concern is still pitching. For me personally its rotation health. If Eduardo Rodriguez or Nathan Eovaldi go down things could get ugly. Then inversely how soon Chris Sale returns, and at what capacity will make a huge difference down the stretch (I still personally want him to destroy hitters out of the bullpen this season until he's back at 100%, but that's just me). The good news is they signed Garrett Richards who I think will enjoy a serviceable bounce-back season, and they have Tanner Houck (right-handed Chris Sale) as a nice depth option in the minor leagues who hopefully gets called up to replace Martin Perez down the road and NOT because an injury forces them to.

The bullpen is far from being polished, but Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino is a solid, experienced late-inning duo. Hirokazu Sawamura should enjoy some first-season success before the scouting reports catch up to him and Matt Andriese and Darwinzon Hernandez can handle as many innings as Cora needs from them for a bridge. Phillips Valdez is another underrated reliever who threw the second-most innings among relievers last year (tied with Andriese) and had a nice 3.26 ERA. Overall the pitching is suspect - but it's good enough with that offense.

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