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Brian Rudd evaluates the 2020 fantasy baseball season for Chicago Cubs shortstop Javier Baez to determine his outlook for next season.
Javier Baez was one of the bigger disappointments in the league during the shortened 2020 season. He had established himself as a five-category contributor over the last several seasons and was coming off a 2019 campaign in which he hit .281 with 29 home runs and 11 steals in 561 plate appearances.
Therefore, Baez was a foundation piece on fantasy rosters, going very early in drafts. In the 38 NFBC Main Event drafts that took place just before the start of the season, he had an ADP of 35. That means he was an early third-round pick in these 15-team leagues.
However, Baez didn't come anywhere close to meeting expectations, as he struggled throughout the season. In total, he put up an ugly .203/.238/.360 line, with eight homers and three steals across 235 plate appearances. Let's take a look at what went wrong, and how Baez's disastrous 2020 season affects his outlook for 2021.
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More Whiffs, Less Quality Contact
Baez's plate approach has always been the primary concern with his profile. He has always had some swing-and-miss in his game, but still produced at a very high level from 2016-2019. During that time, he had a 26.6% K% and 4.7% BB, but put up a strong .280/.319/.504 slash line.
Baez struck out a little more than usual this past season, as 31.9% of his plate appearances ended in a strikeout. According to FanGraphs, both his K% and his 74.6% Z-Contact% ranked eighth-worst among all qualified hitters. By comparison, Baez had come into the year with a career Z-Contact% of 80.1%, so the drop-off was fairly significant.
Not only did Baez struggle to make contact, but when he did put the ball in play, it wasn't with as much authority. Here is a look at his Statcast percentile ranks in 2019, compared to those of 2020:
You can see a lot of red in his 2019 data, but he took steps back across the board in 2020. He ranked barely above league average in Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, and Barrell %, while rating very poorly in xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. Baez did record his hardest-hit ball in the Statcast era (since 2015) in 2020, though, when he hit a ball that jumped off the bat at 116 MPH, which ranked top 10 in Max Exit Velocity for the year.
After recording a .344 BABIP during the previous four seasons, Baez's 2020 mark dipped all the way to .262, which was by far his lowest since his debut in 2014. Not making as much quality contact surely played some role in the drop-off, and that includes a big spike in pop-ups. An infield fly ball rate of 14.9% was 19th highest among qualified hitters and was higher than his previous two seasons combined. Some bad luck was likely a factor in his low BABIP as well, though, as he had previously established a very high BABIP baseline.
Baez's sprint speed also dropped off for the second consecutive season. After swiping 21 bags in 2018, he was just 11 for 18 in 2019, then stole three bases in as many attempts in 2020. While the 100% success rate is nice, he would have been on pace for just eight steals over the course of a 162-game season.
2021 Outlook
Given Baez's track record of success, how much weight should his struggles during a 60-game season carry as owners evaluate him for the 2021 season? Coming off the down year, early draft data shows that Baez's stock has dropped considerably.
In the eight NFBC 15-team Draft Champions drafts that have been completed, he has gone at an average pick of 71, which slots him in as the 11th shortstop off the board. Baez has been taken as early as pick 61, while he slipped all the way to pick 100 in one draft.
Baez's skills did take a step back in most areas in 2021. The 21 steals from 2018 are looking more and more like an outlier. But even with his speed falling off a bit, Baez should be good for double-digit stolen bases again in 2021.
As for the rest of the package, it's probably wise to rely more on the track record than the most recent, and less than impressive, season. Baez is still in the prime of his caree, and isn't likely to have as high of a K% or IFFB%, and his BABIP should regress toward his career norms. He has proven he can hit for a solid average even while swinging and missing at a lot of pitches, and getting the K% under 30% should be doable, and would lead to a bounce-back in the batting average category.
There are enough yellow flags to warn against betting on a full rebound for Baez, but you won't have to pay for that. Over a full season, he stands a strong chance to match or slightly exceed his counting stats from 2019 (29 HR, 11 SB, 89 R, 85 RBI), while contributing a little lower average than his .281 mark from that season. Baez should put the down season behind him, and looks like a rock-solid investment at his current price, with plenty of profit potential.
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