Believing in Jameis Winston Again

September 16, 2021

New Orleans Saints QB Jameis Winston was a top-end quarterback option in Week 1 thanks to his efficiency and ability to avoid turnovers. Gage Bridgford makes the case for believing in Winston again for fantasy football as a solid QB1.

Well, that was a pretty wild Week 1, wasn’t it? We saw underdogs go 9-7 against favorites with several high-profile teams that made the playoffs a season ago getting knocked off in Week 1. One of the most notable upsets of the week was the New Orleans Saints’ 38-3 drubbing of the Green Bay Packers, who were one of the top-five teams in terms of Super Bowl odds entering the week. The Packers’ struggles were the talk of the town, but one storyline that’s flying under the radar a bit was the play of quarterback Jameis Winston. 

The last time we saw Winston as a starting quarterback, he had gone 13-of-24 for 201 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions to cap off the first-ever season with 30+ touchdowns and 30+ interceptions. Now, as the starter for the Saints, he did everything head coach Sean Payton could have asked of him. He stayed on script while taking what the defense was willing to give him and avoiding risks. He finished the game 14-of-20 for 148 yards and five passing touchdowns. Winston must be a fan of firsts because this was the first game in NFL history where a player had finished with five or more touchdowns while passing for fewer than 150 yards.

Winston finished as QB4 for the week with 29.62 points behind only Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The fact he was able to score that many points with his low yardage production is impressive on its own considering both of those guys in front of him had a rushing touchdown and nearly 300 yards through the air for Murray and over 330 for Mahomes. Despite those high yardage totals, they outscored Winston by just 4.94 and 3.66 points, respectively. All of this goes to say, is it time for us to believe in him again? He was QB3 overall in 2019 with 30 interceptions. Can Payton and the Saints coach him up to another top-12 finish? Let’s take a closer look.

Protection Helps A Lot

In 2019, Winston was sacked 47 times, and he finished the year with 161 total pressures, which is the total number of sacks, hits, and hurries he experienced over the course of the season. In Week 1, he experienced just four total pressures, including zero sacks. Over the course of a 17-game season, that would translate to 68 total pressures. Obviously, this performance was not replicable, and this Saints front will face tougher tests. However, this would be a 58 percent reduction in total pressures over the course of the season, and the Saints were actually third in pressures allowed last season with just 100. 

This Saints’ front is the strength of their roster. With former quarterback Drew Brees under center, they needed a strong offensive line to protect the quarterback that lacked mobility, as he finished with just 752 yards over the course of his 20-season career. Looking across their starting five offensive linemen, left tackle Terron Armstead is the only player that was selected past the second round, and three of the five starters were all first-round selections.

After center Erik McCoy left with an injury, the team inserted undrafted free agent Calvin Throckmorton at guard with last year’s first-round pick Cesar Ruiz sliding to center. Throckmorton was surrounded by four other guys that were all some of the best at their positions. This reduced the drop-off in play from McCoy to Calvin. As you can see on this chart, Sunday was just the eighth time in Winston’s career he’s been sacked zero times as the majority starter. Outside of a 2019 win over the Atlanta Falcons, Winston never threw more than one interception in those games.

Reducing the pressure on Jameis from the pass-rush allows him to focus on finding his receivers rather than avoiding potential tacklers. There are a few differences between Brees’ game and Winston’s, and one of the biggest is Jameis’ willingness and ability to throw the long ball. Brees preferred to get rid of the ball quickly and accurately, whereas Jameis is willing to hold onto the ball a little longer to try and hit the big play. Jameis had the seventh-longest time-to-throw on Sunday, but he also had an average completed air yards that was 1.2 yards further than any of the seven guys ahead of him. As long as this line is healthy, they’ll give him time to throw, and he’s looking like he’ll be able to make big plays happen out of that.

Run the Ball Well

In 2019, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ leading rusher was Ronald Jones II, who had put up 724 yards on 172 carries, and he has a career average of 4.5 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Winston's new lead ball carrier is Alvin Kamara, who has averaged 4.9 yards per carry for his career on the ground. Sunday showed that it doesn’t even have to be Kamara for the Saints to run the ball well. Second-string running back Tony Jones Jr. had 11 carries on the day for 50 yards, as a big portion of the team’s 171 yards on the ground. 

This is the first time in his career that he has a complementary rushing attack that he can actually set up with his own talents. His ability to push the ball down the field forces defenses to put light boxes in front of his running backs and their offensive line can then get downhill to create more room for the running backs. Additionally, those lighter boxes lead to one under-the-radar aspect of the running game. 

There is more room for Winston to scramble if his pass-catchers aren’t open. On Sunday, Winston had six carries for 37 yards. Of those six carries, two were kneel-downs to end the game, three scrambles, and a quarterback sneak. The three scrambles all went for 10 or more yards. With the defense worried about the deep ball, they can’t load the box, which leaves Winston room to run if he needs it. NFL teams always talk about using the run to set up the pass and vice versa, but that’s essentially what this Saints offense is going to be based on what we saw in Week 1.

Payton Can Open It Up Again

As I mentioned before, in 2019, Jameis was QB3 at the end of the year despite throwing 30 interceptions. Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns was second with 21 interceptions that year, and he was QB19. The big-play ability that Winston has in his arm gives him the high-end volatility to score with the top players at the position despite the turnovers he creates. The challenge with Winston was always avoiding the turnovers while not taking out the big plays he can create.

The last time Payton had a fully healthy Brees under center in 2016, Brees had one of the most productive seasons of his career even though the team finished with just a 7-9 record. He finished the year with 5,208 passing yards, 37 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions on 673 passing attempts. With an improved defense along with some injuries, Brees didn’t approach those numbers over his final four seasons because the team had changed the way they won. They played strong defense, ran the ball well, and took care of the ball on offense. 

In Week 1, we saw that the Saints were willing to take the occasional deep shot, but they didn’t always need to. Look at the differences in how the offense operated with the earlier version of Brees from 2011 to 2016 compared to 2017 through 2020. He was attempting eight fewer passes per game while scoring .5 fewer touchdowns per outing. Granted, he also cut his interceptions per game over 50 percent, but that’s going to happen when you see such a significant workload reduction. Winston can allow Payton to open the offense back up to how it was at the beginning of the decade rather than the end. In games that are closer which require him to move the ball more, we could see real fireworks out of Jameis. 

Jameis Winston is unlikely to finish as the QB3 overall this year as he did back in 2019. This offense and defense are better than those units, and they won’t require him to throw nearly as much. However, if he’s able to maintain some of the efficiency we saw in Week 1 while increasing his yardage output, there’s a very clear path to a top-12 performance at the position. Looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, he does play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins in Week 15 and Week 16 respectively, so he may not be the best option late in the year. However, he seems like a great choice to get you there.

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