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Rishi Patel looks at the projected fantasy football production for the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars to identify potential values and busts.
Two seasons removed from an AFC Championship appearance, the Jacksonville Jaguars brought in former Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles to lead the team in 2019. However, that ended up being a major bust for the Jags, as an injury to Foles resulted in rookie Gardner Minshew II starting most of the season. Now, this Duval County team has likely relegated themselves to a rebuilding team heading into 2020. Defensive veterans A.J. Bouye and Calais Campbell, along with Nick Foles, were all jettisoned to other teams.
Head coach Doug Marrone and GM Doug Caldwell are returning, but executive vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin will not after being fired. Jacksonville does retain talent on its offense, though. Perhaps the biggest question is surrounding the QB situation, with no clear-cut answer as to whether current projected starter Gardner Minshew II will face any competition.
With the return of Leonard Fournette, the addition of Laviska Shenault Jr. out of Colorado, and the emergence of WR D.J. Chark Jr., there are certainly some names to be aware of on this team for fantasy. Here’s the breakdown of the entire offense from a fantasy perspective:
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Quarterback
Is Gardner Minshew II the dude? That’s the question swarming this team heading into 2020. A guy whose mustache has gained fame is slated to lead these Jags during the 2020 campaign. Minshew was decent in 2019, hence Minshew Mania erupting nationwide. In 14 games played, he finished with 3,271 yards, 21 touchdowns, six picks, and 13 total fumbles (seven lost) for a total of 229 PPR points and a ranking of 20th among active fantasy QBs.
It’s rather clear that Minshew has avoided QB competition such as Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles (who was sent to Chicago), and Cam Newton (for now), and is in a solid position to be doing the signal-calling in North Florida to start the 2020 campaign.
Minshew does have a great sample size, but his stats don’t spell capable weekly fantasy starter. He averaged 233.6 yards per game last season and had an 18.6 percent of poor throws per pass attempt rate. He ranked fifth in rushing among NFL QBs last year, he compiled 344 rush yards total.
It’s best to draft Minshew as a backup QB on your fantasy team for now as another QB could be brought in eventually to compete alongside him. There is also the fact that there could be growing pains with a very young QB, as evidence of the 24-year-old’s fumbles last season, which tied for fourth-highest among NFL QBs.
Running Back
It’s not even close that Leonard Fournette is the top option in this backfield and a promising prospect for 2020. This comes after trade rumors circulated about moving the running back elsewhere.
Though the team didn’t pick up the fifth-year option for the LSU product, he is expected to be on the team for 2020. Therefore, we will dive into Fournette’s fantasy value as if he will be on the team for the entire campaign.
With the Jags’ QB carousel seemingly never-ending, Fournette’s role is always at a high. The now fourth-year player finished with 1,152 yards rushing, 522 yards receiving, along with three total touchdowns for 259 PPR points in 2019. Last season saw the 25-year-old reach career-highs in rushing (1,152), yards per attempt (4.3), receptions (76), and receiving yards (522). He also had three rushing yards after contact per rush.
All in all, Fournette’s production will remain steady as he is the workhorse back going forward. He has no direct competition for the RB1 on this team, he has averaged 73.1 rush yards per game, and brings decent value in the passing game too. The only hope is for the number of touchdowns to increase, as Fournette only has 17 total rush touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns in three years in the NFL. He’s a low RB1/high RB2.
Former Redskins running back Chris Thompson also signed with the Jags this offseason. He has been known as a small, pass-catching back in his career and his stats reflect that. In six seasons played, he has 1,772 receiving yards to 1,194 rush yards. Thompson has not had more than 68 rushes and 356 rush yards in a season and only has five career rush touchdowns.
In the passing game, however, he has capped off at 49 receptions and 510 receiving yards in a season along with having a total of 10 career reception touchdowns. For his career, Thompson has been averaging 4.8 rush yards per attempt but has 8.5 yards per reception. Any (if at all) fantasy value this player brings will be through the passing game. The only question is how frequently he will be on the field for Jacksonville.
Therefore, Thompson poses no direct threat to Fournette’s carries and should be more involved in the passing game, though there is no clear indication of how he will be used. For now, avoid Thompson in drafts and pick him up off the waiver wire during the season if he proves valuable.
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver was a mess on this team in 2019 from a fantasy perspective. Just when you thought somebody was stepping up into the WR1 role, another random name stepped in for a terrific game. That’s the Jags for you.
With TE essentially non-existent on the team last season, wide receivers accounted for 355/589 targets (60.2 %). D.J. Chark Jr. drew 118/589 targets (20 %) and Dede Westbrook attracted 101/589 (17.1%).
It’s easy to decipher that Chark stands out as a top WR and viable fantasy option on this team, especially since he had built a rapport with Minshew last season. If there’s anything you need to know, D.J. Chark Jr. was the only 1,000-yard receiver on the team. It was encouraging that he had 73 receptions, 1,008 yards, eight touchdowns, averaged 13.8 yards per reception, 67.2 yards per game, and compiled 225 PPR points. He’s the closest to being a WR1 on this team.
As for the other receivers, this is where it gets tricky. Westbrook finished with 66 receptions, 660 yards, and three touchdowns. Receiver Chris Conley got 47 receptions, 775 yards, and five touchdowns. Keelan Cole had 24 receptions, 361 yards, and three touchdowns.
Adding to this WR mess is the addition of Laviska Shenault Jr. out of Colorado. At 6’1”, he brings size and skill. In three seasons at Colorado, he had one 1,000-yard season. He finished his college career with 1,943 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns, and averaging 13 yards per catch. There is no doubt he brings that big-play potential to the Jags.
Another interesting facet about Shenault is his rushing prowess. Even as a receiver, he finished college with 42 rushes, 280 yards, and seven rush touchdowns, all while averaging 6.7 yards per rush. That adds another dimension to his fantasy value, one that is not normal for WRs, and his fantasy worth should only ascend as his NFL career progresses.
So, who is trust-worthy in fantasy if there are quite a few receivers vying for targets and production on Jacksonville?
No matter the QB in 2020, the Jags receivers will get production in 2020. It’s just so muddled as to who can be trusted in fantasy. Right now, Chark is the only one who can be drafted based on his sample size and though he’s still a good WR2 in fantasy, it’s always impossible to tell who will have a breakout game on this unit.
Shenault could eventually gain fantasy relevance as a solid WR2 on the team, but it’s best to wait and see. This holds true because even guys like Conley, Westbrook, and Shenault just being on the unit means targets are bound to decrease for all three. However, if they use their playing time effectively and prove themselves, then one could be considered better for fantasy.
However, that takes time, which means the best scenario is to just take a chance on one late in drafts for large leagues (think 12-14 teams) if you need receiver depth. Then, as the season progresses, you can add the receiver (out of these three) that is thriving (if he is still available). The addition of Shenault essentially eliminates all of Cole’s fantasy value.
Again, these three receivers could show breakout weeks, but likely not in a consistent fashion, which hinders their overall fantasy value. Chark is the only one to have proved he stands out.
Tight End
James O’Shaughnessy led this TEs unit with 153 yards, two touchdowns, and no fantasy relevance in 2019. If he was the leading TE on this team again in 2020, then there is no reason to trust the Jags TEs in fantasy at all.
Nevertheless, the team acquired former Cincinnati Bengal TE Tyler Eifert, who is the new top TE in Jacksonville. Unfortunately, the seven-year career of Eifert has been beset by numerous injuries. He finished 2019 playing 16 games for the first time in his career, but only starting in four of those contests. He has only played in double-digit games during three of seven seasons and has started in double-digit contests in two of seven seasons.
Eifert compiled 43 receptions, 436 yards, and three touchdowns in 2019, but injuries have limited his overall potential on the field and fantasy throughout his career. Aside from a breakout 2015 season in which he accumulated 52 receptions, 615 yards, and 13 touchdowns, the TE has not eclipsed 43 receptions, 445 yards, and five touchdowns during any other season in his career. He has averaged 36.5 yards per game in his career.
If he can stay healthy, Eifert can be fantasy-relevant in Duval County because he is atop the depth chart, but there does remain that risk of injury. Do not draft him as a starter in redraft leagues, but he can serve as a serviceable backup depending on the matchup.
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