RADIO
Michael F. Florio explains why there is more cause for concern with Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams. What is his fantasy football outlook heading into 2023?
Davante Adams has long been a fantasy football star. For years, he was the consensus WR1 in green and gold catching passes from a four-time MVP and future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. Then he switched to the black and silver in Vegas and while he was no longer the first receiver drafted in fantasy, he still put up monster numbers.
In 2022, Adams saw a career-high 180 targets, reaching 100 catches for the fourth time in five years. He topped 1,500 yards for a second straight season and caught 14 touchdowns -- his sixth time reaching double-figures in the last seven years. While the efficiency from Green Bay didn’t carry over to Vegas, an uptick in volume more than made up for it.
Adams finished with the third-most fantasy points among receivers and was the WR6 in fantasy PPG. Finishing as the WR6 tied for his worst finish in the last five seasons. For years, there has been absolutely no reason at all to worry about Adams. But he is about to start his third straight season with a new starting QB -- and for the first time ever, there may be some cause for concern!
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What is Different With Davante Adams in 2023?
Adams is not changing teams like he did a year ago, but he is playing with a new quarterback. And unlike a year ago, he did not go to college with his new signal caller. Jimmy Garoppolo is set to be slinging the ball to Adams this season. Jimmy G’s style of play is unlike that of Adams' previous QBs and goes against what the star receiver does so well.
Ever since he broke out, the thing you most hear about Adams is how good he is as a deep threat. He has a special ability to keep his arms tucked until he extends them at the last possible moment, making it even harder for defenders to stop. Last season, Adams saw 32 targets, 14 catches, 570 yards, and nine touchdowns on deep passes (20-plus air yards). Those were career highs, but he has racked up at least 348 yards on these catches in all but one year since 2018.
In his last four seasons combined, Garoppolo has attempted just 35 deep passes. While he did throw for 606 yards and seven touchdowns in 2019, he has thrown just four touchdown passes on long balls since -- the same number of interceptions. He has 330 or fewer yards on deep passes in every season since 2020.
To put that into perspective, just 11 percent of his yards and 16 percent of his touchdowns have come on deep passes in the last four seasons. In that same span, 42 percent of Garoppolo’s yards and 44 percent of his touchdowns have come on passes of less than 10 air yards. For comparison sake, 28 percent of Adams’ yards and 30 percent of his touchdowns have come on long passes. He picked up 36 percent of his yards and touchdowns came on passes of less than 10 air yards.
But it is not just as simple as “Garoppolo doesn’t throw deep.” The style of how these two have picked up their yards is completely different. Garoppolo has largely been reliant on his pass catchers picking up yards after the catch. Since 2018, 57 percent of his passing yards have come after the catch. He has never had a season with less than 52 percent of his yards coming this way. He sat at 62 percent in 2022.
Meanwhile, Adams has never been a huge YAC receiver. Since 2018, only 40 percent of his yards have come after the catch. The highest rate he reached in that span was 45 percent. In 2022, just 34 percent of his yards came after the catch, the fewest he’s posted in a season in that span. Adams has averaged between 4.7 and 5.4 YAC per reception in that span.
That does not compare well to the 49ers' weapons. Since 2018, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel have topped Adams' high in every season. Kittle’s low was 6.6 YAC per catch in 2020, but he’s reached as high as 10.2. Samuel has reached as high as 12.3 per catch in 2020 but has been over nine in three straight seasons. The weapon that compares most to Adams, on an after-the-catch basis, is Brandon Aiyuk.
Of course, you could credit this up to Kyle Shanahan’s system, which relies on YAC regardless of who the QB has been. But, we have seen other Niners QBs throw the deep ball more often than Garoppolo.
While Garoppolo has by far the largest sample size, there have been six quarterbacks to throw at least 100 passes for the Niners under Shanahan. Garoppolo’s seven percent deep pass percent ranks fourth amongst this group behind Trey Lance (13.7%), C.J. Beathard (8.9%), and Brian Hoyer (7.3%). He was ahead of just Nick Mullens (5.7%) and Brock Purdy (5.3%).
Comparing Garoppolo and Carr
There is no point in comparing either Garoppolo or Carr to Aaron Rodgers, the QB that Adams started his dominant run with. Rodgers is an all-time great who won two MVPs with Adams. No offense to the other two, but they are not that. But is Garoppolo an improvement over Carr? That is a conversation we can have.
Over the last three seasons, Garoppolo has seen 59 percent of his passing yards come after the catch. But we have harped on that enough already. Garoppolo also averaged 7.0 air yards per attempt in that span, compared to 8.5 for Carr. Carr threw 10.9 percent of his passes at least 20 air yards, compared to just 6.9 percent for Garoppolo. Garoppolo also threw slightly less to receivers lined up out wide -- 36 percent to Carr’s 38 percent. Garoppolo also has been more accurate with a 67.7 completion percentage compared to 65.7 for Carr.
But I have talked up about how Adams is one of the best field stretchers in the game. So who has the edge when it comes to deep passes? Well, in the last three years, the edge goes to Carr. In that span, he has a 40 percent completion rate and 103.9 passer rating, compared to a 29.5 percent completion rate and 53.1 passer rating for Garoppolo. Just in 2022, Carr was 36 percent completion, 96.5 rating with a 33.8 pass EPA (expected points added). Garoppolo last year was at 32 percent completion, a 71.3 rating, and a 4.2 pass EPA. So clearly, Garoppolo is a downgrade as a downfield thrower compared to Carr.
When Should You Take Davante Adams in Fantasy Football?
The play style of the new QB and the star WR is something that just does not align. This is something I have harped on since Garoppolo signed with the Raiders this offseason. One of the two will have to change their style. It will probably be some combination of the two, with the Raiders likely asking Garoppolo to throw deep more often than he has with the Niners.
They will also likely draw up more short, quick routes for Adams in hopes he can become more of a threat after the catch. But as stated, he is coming off of career highs on deep passes. His production is likely going to have to come in a way that it never has in his career.
And of course, it could work out because he is one of the best receivers walking the planet. But there is more risk with Adams than there ever has been before. His ADP sees him going as a top-five receiver in the first round. That largely feels like muscle memory.
We have been accustomed to having Adams go this early and he has always lived up to it. Even after losing a back-to-back MVP and changing teams last year, he put up just as good of a number. That could make any concern over him seem like a moot point. But to me, it shouldn’t simply be overlooked.
Adams is still a WR1, but top five? Not for me. And I think there are more than five receivers you can strongly consider taking over Adams. For instance, I would take Stefon Diggs over him and not think twice. A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb should be in the discussion to go over Adams.
I have not yet made the move in my rankings, but it is something I am strongly considering. Then there are the obvious four that are already going over him -- Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyreek Hill. With the three I included, that puts the list to seven receivers you could take over Adams. That may not sound bold, but when his worst finish in the last five years is WR6, it's a splash.
You could read all this and decide you are still going to bet on the talent that is Davante Adams. And no one would knock you for doing so. But I had to lay out the concerns before letting the readers decide for themselves how to treat the stud receiver.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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