Is Mitch Trubisky a Legitimate Fantasy Starter?

November 2, 2018

Chicago Bears QB Mitch Trubisky is a breakout candidate in 2018, but can he sustain QB1 value through the second half? Keith Hernandez examines Trubisky's profile to advise fantasy owners how to approach the second-year quarterback.

Raise your hand if you were looking forward to owning Chicago Bears' second-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky in fantasy in 2018. If you dropped your mouse to raise your hand, first of all, I can't see you and second of all, you're probably lying. Some owners probably still wouldn't care to own Trubisky at the season's halfway point, but there are plenty of positive signs concerning his development.

Unless you're Patrick Mahomes, most young QBs battle through ups and downs. Trubisky is surely in that category. His decision-making and accuracy are concerns moving forward if he is to put it all together and emerge as a top-tier NFL signal-caller.

His overall ranks through eight weeks of the season don't really stand out. Trubisky ranks 20th in completion percentage (64.6), 19th in passing yards (1,814), 15th in yards per attempt (7.56), tied for ninth in touchdowns (15) and 21st in yards per game (259). Does this match the profile of an every-week fantasy starter at QB? Not necessarily, but let's look at the prognosis going forward.

Rising Floor As Dual-Threat QB

The 24-year-old was thrust into an unenviable situation in his rookie season in John Fox's last year as head coach. In an offense devoid of playmakers in the passing game in 2017, the Bears essentially handled Trubisky with kid gloves and asked him to be a game manager. He looked like a rookie, going 196-for-330 (59.4 completion percentage) for 2,193 yards (6.65 average) with seven touchdowns, seven interceptions and five fumbles for a quarterback rating of 77.5 in 12 games. Trubisky wasn't anywhere on the fantasy radar, and for good reason.

Fast forward a year and things started to look much more promising for Trubisky after the team fired Fox and replaced him with a bright offensive mind in Matt Nagy. The offseason acquisitions of tight end Trey Burton and receivers Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel ensured that Trubisky would have something to work with in his second season.

But it wasn't going to be easy in his first full season as a starting quarterback in the NFL while having to learn a completely new system. Trubisky looked terrible in training camp and the preseason, leading most to avoid him altogether heading into the regular season.

Through the first three weeks of the season, not much had changed either, as he hadn't gone over 300 yards and had two touchdowns and three interceptions.

Since Week 3 against the Cardinals, Trubisky has improved dramatically, going over 300 yards in three of four games while tossing 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions in that span. It included a season-high 354-yard, six-touchdown performance against the Bucs.

His completion percentage is up from 59.4 percent last year to 64.6 percent this year, and it looks as though Nagy and offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich's system is finally coming easier for the former North Carolina Tarheel.

Trubisky's accuracy can still improve, however, as he far too often gets sloppy with his mechanics or chooses to flee the pocket instead of completing his progressions. But the good news is that his arm strength is excellent and he has enough athleticism to overcome his shortcomings as a developing quarterback.

The coaching staff would probably prefer to see Trubisky stand in the pocket and complete passes, but neither they nor fantasy owners are complaining about his ability to use his legs to pick up first downs and extend drives. And Trubisky isn't shy to do so, rushing 37 times (fifth most among QBs) for 296 yards (second behind Cam Newton) and two additional touchdowns.

Trubisky's strong arm and above-average wheels make him a dual-threat quarterback that seems to be improving on a weekly basis. It's the main reason why his fantasy floor is higher and he now has legitimate QB1 upside in the right matchups.

While Trubisky's ownership in fantasy leagues has steadily been on the rise since Week 3, he's still available in 28 percent of leagues. Now here's the kicker: What if I told you that Trubisky is ranked seventh in overall fantasy points among QBs entering Week 9? That's right. He has 158.2 fantasy points, which is more than early fantasy picks such as Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and even Tom Brady.

Will He Finish The Year Strong?

There's good reason to believe he'll keep it up. Chicago has a great one-two punch of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen -- who also poses as another wideout -- in the backfield, easing the burden on Trubisky's shoulders as they vie for a division title.

Of the team's remaining nine games, Week 9 on the road in Buffalo might be the toughest remaining test for Trubisky. Buffalo allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks (15.0) per week. There's also a chance that he'll be without top wideout Allen Robinson again, too.

Weeks 10 and 12 against the Lions are great matchups, as well as Week 13 against the Giants on the road. While a divisional matchup against the Vikings could be imposing in Week 11, they haven't been nearly as good as they were in 2017 and Trubisky will get to face them at home.

Then come the traditional fantasy playoffs, Weeks 14-16. The NFC North will likely come down to two tough draws against both the Rams and Packers, but both games will be at Soldier Field. The Rams allow the third-fewest fantasy points per week to QBs, but that's a game where Trubisky will likely have to throw often, giving him plenty of chances to rack up points for fantasy owners. The same could be said of the matchup with Green Bay.

And finally, if you make it to your fantasy championship, Trubisky has a great matchup against the 49ers on the road in Week 16. San Fran allows 20.8 fantasy points (sixth most) to quarterbacks per week.

The schedule cooperates and Trubisky is proving that his dual-threat skill set and athleticism make him a weekly consideration as a QB1 if you have struggled for consistency at the position so far this year. At the very worst, Trubisky makes for a strong backup option to close out the season.

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