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Is Mark Ingram the elite RB2 that he was last season alongside Alvin Kamara? Gage Bridgford (@GBridgfordNFL) breaks him down as an option so far and moving forward.
Last season, the New Orleans Saints accomplished the rare feat of having multiple running backs finish within the top-10 at the position in fantasy points scored. Upon his return from a four-week suspension, Mark Ingram looked poised to put the team on track to do it all over again. While he only had 16 carries on the night, he had two touchdowns which is what made him so valuable last season. On a truly elite offense, Ingram had a nose for the end zone while Alvin Kamara would get them from 20-yard line to 20-yard line.
However, since that week six return, Ingram has fallen off, and he has fallen off hard. He has been out-touched by Kamara in both games, and he hasn't been able to find the end zone to salvage his day. Ingram is a talented running back, and there is no questioning that. Is he talented enough to maintain his spot as an RB2 moving forward?
While I think he is good, I'm here to tell you that he has become a matchup-dependent and touchdown-reliant flex running back.
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His History
Throughout his career, Ingram's major enemy has been his ability to stay healthy on the field. When he was able to do that, he played well and at a solid RB2 level. His yards per carry have consistently improved over the course of his career, and he has also been a solid pass-catcher, despite his reputation as a bruiser. Ingram has never been a high-volume guy, but he has had a nose for the end zone and consistency in that area of the field.
Last season, despite the reduced overall volume, he increased his efficiency dramatically, and he got even better down in the red zone, as he scored a career-high 12 touchdowns. Ingram worked amazingly in the team's passing game that had a newfound involvement of the running backs. Out of 71 targets, he caught 58 of them. Ingram wasn't quite Kamara, who had 81 receptions, but that is still a really impressive number for the seventh-year running back out of Alabama.
Ingram has always been a dual-threat running back that works best off of a high-volume of carries, particularly late in the game when his size has worn defenses down. When he is on the field getting the lion's share of the carries, he is a great option in both real and fantasy football. However, that has been his Achilles heel, as he has played all 16 games just one time, and he already won't hit that number this year.
His Shortened Season so far
After a four-game suspension due to PEDs, Ingram met his teammates at the airport to show his commitment to them, even though they had a bye week upcoming. With the offense continuing to get better and Kamara needing a break in his heavy workload, Ingram figured to pick up right where he left off. As previously stated, he took the limited carries that he got and was effective in scoring touchdowns. He played so well compared to Kamara that some thought he was the starter moving forward rather than Kamara.
After that week, he has fallen off hard. He has had a total of 25 carries and five catches. For comparison, Kamara has 30 carries and nine catches. That may seem like a minuscule difference, but Ingram has not been getting the goalline work which is what kept him relevant when he's been inefficient. In the past two weeks, Kamara has gotten all three of the running back touchdowns, while Ingram has been standing on the sideline.
Ingram is clearly the number two in this backfield. While he is a really good number two, these past couple weeks have shown that he may not be as reliable in fantasy as he was last season. Despite an offense that is actually better than it was last season, Ingram falls behind Kamara and wide receiver Michael Thomas in the pecking order. He has been good in the red zone, but he isn't being used down there.
The Outlook Moving Forward
You're a good running back coming off your second career Pro Bowl, and you play in an elite offense. There is just one problem. One of the NFL's best running backs plays in the same backfield as you. That is the predicament Ingram finds himself in, and he is set to be the backup for the rest of the season barring an injury to Kamara. He has some good value in the right week, but his efficiency on a per carry basis has waned, and it doesn't seem like it will get better.
Seven of the team's final nine games are against defenses that currently rank in the top-10 in yards allowed on the ground. While Ingram is not too shabby in the passing game, he is not good enough to be on the field over Kamara in these matchups. The team will likely continue to split his workload, so as to not overwork Kamara, but he will need to get touchdowns to stay relevant. Based on what we have seen recently, there is no guarantee that happens.
In specific matchups when the Saints get a big lead, Ingram could have some increased value. However, this Saints defense does not look like the one that took the league by storm last year. They consistently give up a good deal of points, ranking 23rd in points per game. Their offense should carry them, and Ingram will still have some scoring opportunities. However, based on recent usage and expectations moving forward, it's unlikely that he is anything more than a high-end flex option the rest of the season.
