Is Josh Allen Still a Fantasy QB1?

November 4, 2020

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen started 2020 as a top fantasy football QB but is starting to struggle. Justin Carter evaluates Allen's fantasy value to determine if his late-season schedule allows him to be a QB1.

From my apartment balcony, I can see the storm clouds on the horizon. I watch as they move closer towards me and, just before the storm reaches me, I walk inside, close the door, return to a place of safety. No matter how bad the weather gets out there, I'm inside. I'm away from it all. Except, the rain gets harder, and then I start to hear a new sound: the water hitting the inside of my window blinds. Somewhere in the frame, a leak has occurred, and the rain from outside is now plopping itself into my home. I move the electronics. I move the table. The water continues to come in.

This is a metaphor. The apartment is Josh Allen. Early in his career, he was on the balcony. The balcony is not a great place to be, because you're susceptible to whatever lurks outside. You can't live on the balcony. But at some point, Josh Allen went inside. Inside is where you grow. It's where you thrive. Inside is being a fantasy QB1. You want to be inside. But the rain is leaking in on Josh Allen now. Things aren't perfect. His faults are back, and now we have to figure out if Allen's going to go to the hardware store and buy a caulk gun and fix the holes, or if he's just going to drown as the water continues to pool into the living room.

Alright, enough of all the figurative language. It's time to address a question we all have right now: is Josh Allen still a set-and-forget QB1 who is just slumping, or do we need to reevaluate what we think of a young passer who had seemed to be improving exponentially?

Remember When We Hated Josh Allen?

We all hated Josh Allen during the pre-draft process, and sometimes I feel bad about that. Sure, his numbers at Wyoming were pretty bad, which led me to write this about him right after he was drafted:

There's a lot to dislike about Josh Allen as an NFL prospect. The Ringer's Rodger Sherman wrote a piece before the draft that had some eye opening stats about Allen, but the one that stuck out to me the most was this: "the most successful quarterback since 2005 who was taken within a draft’s first 100 picks and posted a final-year college completion percentage below 58 is Jake Locker." JAKE LOCKER. The Bills traded up for a player whose best NFL comparison is Jake Locker? There are plenty of other things in that Ringer article that bring up concerns about Allen as a pro prospect too-- more of his passes thrown off target than notable stars DeShone Kizer and Christian Hackenberg, bad numbers when under pressure, and a negative QBASE score.

In addition to all of that, though, my other concern is how he fits in with this Bills team. Tyrod Taylor led them to the playoffs despite ranking just 16th in completion percentage, but he was also tied for the lowest interception percentage in the league with Alex Smith. (Both guys changed teams this offseason despite their ability to avoid turnovers.)

So, Allen. He threw 21 interceptions in two years as a starter in Wyoming, while Taylor threw 16 in three years as the Bills starter. Allen has a strong arm and, in theory, can make some passes that Taylor couldn't, but the Bills don't necessarily have the personnel right now to make his arm strength supersede his lack of accuracy. That the Bills took Allen over Josh Rosen is a bad call in my book, but it could end up looking fine down the line if Allen is able to improve his placement. It's just hard to imagine Buffalo being a place where he does that.

But also, even at the time, his upside was significantly higher than Josh Rosen's, despite what I thought. I was wrong about that.

I think it's important to admit I was wrong about Allen in 2018 because I don't want you to read this article and think I'm some notorious Josh Allen hater. So, now that that's out of the way...

What's Going On With Josh Allen?

So, for all his faults, Allen's ability to run with the ball and his wildly strong arm -- emphasis on "wild" -- helped him finish as the fantasy QB6 last season. He was expected to take another step forward in 2020, and for awhile, it looked like he was. Allen was the QB3 after Week 4, posting some really great numbers:

image taken from Pro-Football-Reference.com

The Bills were throwing a lot. Allen was completing a lot of passes. And he had three touchdown runs.

Since Week 5, though, Allen has struggled. He hasn't posted 20 or more fantasy points in any of the last four games after hitting that mark in all of those first four, and he's completing just 62.79 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and four interceptions in this span. In the first four games, Allen was completing 70.95 percent of his passes with 12 touchdowns and one pick.

So, what's going on?

The first place you might look for an answer could be the opposing defenses that Allen has faced. In these four games, he's faced the Titans, the Chiefs, the Jets, and the Patriots.

In terms of DVOA, those defenses ranked through seven weeks: 17th (TEN), 13th (KC), 20th (NYJ), and 25th (NE). So, not exactly a murderer's row of defenses there, and if you want to look at fantasy points allowed per position, the Jets and Titans both ranked in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed per game to quarterbacks entering Week 7. The Patriots and Chiefs are both a lot better in that stat, though, and those were his two toughest games and the only times this year he's been held under 200 passing yards.

So, defense matters some. But it doesn't fully explain some things, like his failure to throw a touchdown against the Jets.

Over the past four games, Allen is throwing longer. He's thrown for 9.5 intended air yards per attempt in three of the last four games, but did that just once in the first four. Air yards are usually good, but Allen's accuracy issues can really come into play when he throws deep. Last year, Allen was 33rd among quarterbacks in deep-ball completion percentage at just 25 percent.

Although, Allen's 2019 efficiency was bad in a lot of areas. Per PlayerProfiler, here are some efficiency stats for him last season, with his rank among quarterbacks shown:

image taken from PlayerProfiler.com

Yikes.

And while we should definitely leave room for Allen to improve as a passer -- as he did in those first four games this season!! -- we also have to leave room for him to keep being the player he's always been, which is an inaccurate, strong-armed quarterback.

Another thing that could be hurt Allen? Zack Moss, who continues to see his role down near the goal line grow. Allen has fallen from second to fifth among quarterbacks in red zone carries this year. It's a small drop, but it is a drop.

So Is Josh Allen Still A QB1?

Oh, yeah, the question y'all came here for.

Here's the thing about Allen. His ceiling is always going to be as a QB1. He's a big-bodied runner who can Uncle Rico a football with the flick of his wrist. He has Stefon Diggs and John Brown to stretch the field. He has Cole Beasley to catch passes over the middle. There's going to be a lot of weeks where Allen is near the top of the fantasy scoring list.

But those first four games had us getting complacent. We thought Allen had moved from the "guy who you start every week while knowing his accuracy issues will lead to some stinkers" tier to the "guy who you start every week and expect a QB1 performance no matter what."

Against defenses that can get pressure or can take Diggs away, Allen is sometimes going to look like the Josh Allen that his detractors thought/think he was/is. He's going to miss easy throws. He's going to overshoot guys by a mile. You're not going to get a QB1 performance out of him.

But not every NFL quarterback is Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson. As we're seeing with Lamar Jackson this year, even the most talented players can struggle.

And Allen is talented.

And Allen is struggling sometimes.

But like Lamar, Josh Allen is still a fantasy QB1. We can't ignore his ceiling, even if his production is more volatile than we'd like. Allen still has the ability to deliver a huge game in the way that someone like Matt Ryan or Jared Goff won't do.

Also, it's not like the QB1 tier is great. On a per-game basis, Ryan Tannehill, Tom Brady, and Carson Wentz are QB1s. Nothing against those guys, but I'd still rank Allen above them rest-of-season, I think.

The "I think" part is because of the remaining schedule for the Bills. FantasyPros says that Allen has the eighth-hardest strength of schedule going forward.

But a handful of other QB1 options have bottom 10 strength of schedules. Deshaun Watson has the third hardest. Joe Burrow fourth. Lamar Jackson fifth. Tannehill is at 11th-hardest. It's not like Allen is about to face a disastrous group of defenses while other QB1s get a cakewalk.

So, my final verdict here: Allen is still a fantasy QB1. You just shouldn't feel quite as good about starting him each week as you were feeling over the first four games.

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