X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Is J.T. Realmuto Worth the Draft Cost?

J.T. Realmuto - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Every year, there seems to be one catcher who stands above all others when it comes to fantasy value and consequently draft price. In 2017, it was Gary Sanchez. In 2018, Salvador Perez. After the 2019 and 2020 seasons, J.T. Realmuto has clearly emerged as the top backstop in fantasy.

Catcher is one of the most frustrating positions to manage due to the lack of quality offensive options. This begs the question of why two-catcher leagues even exist, but that's a topic for another time...

If you want security and high-end production at a volatile position, Realmuto is your guy. But it will cost you. Realmuto's recent ADP in NFBC leagues is 33rd overall, ahead of players like Clayton Kershaw and reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu. In single-catcher leagues, he's still likely to be a fourth or fifth-round pick at the latest. That's a high price to pay when you consider the other players you are passing up. Is it worth it to have the top player at such a thin position or are you better off playing the waiting game at catcher?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

The Real Deal

Let's start by eliminating any doubt as to whether he deserves the designation of top fantasy catcher.

In 2020, Realmuto tied Salvador Perez among catchers for the lead in home runs (11) and RBI (32) and came in second with 33 runs scored behind Willson Contreras. His .266 batting average was simply top-20 at catcher but he'd hit above .275 each of the previous three seasons. When evaluating him by any points-style scoring format, Realmuto was the top fantasy catcher in 2020, #2 in 2019, #1 in 2018, and #3 in 2017. That consistency goes a long way toward building trust on draft day and he's still barely on the right side of 30, age-wise.

He's not slowing down either. Realmuto has consistently kept his xwOBA over .340 and his xSLG keeps rising year-after-year.

Even better, Realmuto has ranked above the 80th percentile in sprint speed every year in the majors. He is one of the few catchers who can swipe a handful of bases. He stole nine bags in 2019 and is projected to do the same in 2021.

Realmuto's real-life value extends beyond the fantasy realm, as he ranked in the 95th percentile in framing, which takes into account how much a catcher helps his pitching staff out by converting fringe pitches into strikes. This along with his offensive prowess and consistency is what guarantees him a huge chunk of playing time.

ATC projects him to be the only catcher to reach 500 at-bats in 2021. How important is that stat? Only five other catchers are even projected to surpass 400 AB and Perez is the only other one over 431 AB. A fractured right thumb has put his Opening Day availability in doubt but reports indicate he's already throwing and catching with a small cast and won't miss much, if any, time. The thumb injury Realmuto suffered at the onset of spring training shouldn't be a factor when deliberating how to rank him for season-long leagues. If anything, it is just another factor that should knock him down a peg in draft value.

 

The Cost of Consistency

Every team would love to have Realmuto on their squad but, like the Highlander, there can only be one and his services will come at a premium on draft day. Fantasy leagues come in a variety of settings and formats, so we must always take ADP with a grain of salt. The existence of two-catcher leagues (why? just why?) also throws a wrench into things. NFBC ADP may be skewed at this position since it requires two catchers so let's look at FantasyPros' consensus ADP using five different sites, including NFBC, Yahoo, ESPN, RT Sports, and Fantrax.

Realmuto is currently going 43rd overall according to ADP consensus. The 12th-ranked catcher in terms of current ADP is Sean Murphy at 196 overall. If we take it to 15 teams, we're looking at Yadier Molina, who recently signed to stay on with the Cardinals for an 18th season. The contrasts are stark between the aging veteran who provides a strong floor in batting average but little power and the 26-year-old who has 25-homer upside but hit .233 last year. Similarly, declining vet Buster Posey and power-dependent Mitch Garver are sandwiched between them. Posey didn't even play in 2020 while Garver was the biggest draft bust at the position. These are the types of choices available for those who opt to wait on the catcher position in drafts.

RotoBaller analyst Nicklaus Gaut, of WPC+ podcast fame, has converted 2021 ATC projections into dollar amounts for each player by calculating their value relative to position at each roto category. Projections aren't inherently perfect, but the results show just how large of a gap exists between Realmuto and other starting-caliber catchers.

Player ATC Value Value Diff. ADP Diff.
J.T. Realmuto $25.1 - -
Sean Murphy $1.0 $24.1 103
Yadier Molina ($5.2) $30.3 206

Realmuto's $25.1 value places him 25th among all players, tied with Trevor Bauer and Rafael Devers. That alone seems to justify his ADP. When examining the counter-argument about his draft price, we have to consider what it would mean to wait on a catcher. Murphy, our number 12 catcher, returns a single buck while Molina delivers negative value.

The next best comp might be first base, which is considered the thinnest offensive position after catcher. The consensus top player is reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman, who is ranked 11 overall. Securing a high-end option at 1B proved extremely useful last season, especially given the disappointing production among many of the hitters outside the top 10 at the position.

While Freeman is a first-round pick in nearly all drafts and Realmuto falls closer to the fourth round, the point remains that there is a big drop-off between the top player and the last one drafted as a starter at his position (12th-ranked player in a 12-team league, 15th-ranked player in a 15-team league).

Let's conduct a similar comparison, excluding 1B-eligible players who are not likely to be used at the position. DJ LeMahieu and Brandon Lowe, for example, are far more likely to be drafted as second basemen than first basemen. Conversely, I've included someone like Cody Bellinger at first base since he's far more valuable there than in the outfield for conventional roster constructions.

Using these criteria, We have Josh Bell as the 12th-ranked first baseman and Miguel Sano at 15. Here are how the values shake out:

Player ATC Value Value Diff. ADP Diff.
Freddie Freeman $37.1 - -
Josh Bell $13.9 $23.2 134
Miguel Sano $10.2 $26.9 165

While the drop in value is almost the same from Freeman to Bell as it is from Realmuto to Murphy, you're reaping some reward with a guy like Bell. Not to mention, he could be vastly undervalued if he bounces back after a miserable short season in Pittsburgh. You know what you're getting with Sano, which is an AVG sink with the potential for 40 HR, 80+R, and 80+RBI. You can easily manage a winning squad with him starting at first base if you compensate for average elsewhere. Most importantly, if you want to wait at first base you will have plenty of other options you can live with such as Christian Walker, Ryan Mountcatle, etc. The same can't be said for the likes of Pedro Severino or Jacob Stallings in a single-catcher league.

 

Bottom Line

There's no doubt that Realmuto provides a huge advantage on a fantasy roster. There are virtually no "sure things" at the position. Will Smith, the third-ranked catcher, has all of 333 plate appearances under his belt. We've seen players like Gary Sanchez and Mitch Garver ascend to the top tier of fantasy rankings only to crash and burn that season. Promising prospects like Francisco Mejia and Danny Jansen have wound up as wasted roster spots.

We've determined that Realmuto is absolutely deserving of his ADP and waiting to be the last one to draft a catcher is a bad idea but that doesn't mean it has to be all-or-nothing. Salvador Perez is the one player who could put up more home runs and RBI than Realmuto without hurting you significantly in average or runs. He is going about 46 picks later, which presents the strategic possibility of securing a high-end catcher early without forsaking a top-tier option at another position in the first few rounds. Perez is projected to return $17.4 in 2021. The drop-off from him to the next-ranked catcher, Willson Contreras, is almost the same as the drop between Realmuto and Perez.

Player ATC Value Value Diff. ADP Diff.
J.T. Realmuto $25.1 - -
Salvador Perez $17.4 $7.7 46
Willson Contreras $10.2 $14.9 78

Realmuto is a great player and tremendous fantasy asset but his draft price has simply become too rich. Salvador Perez, on the other hand, can provide near-identical production at a more palatable ADP. Pouncing on a productive, reliable catcher early seems like the logical way to go. It just doesn't have to be J.T.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jerry Jeudy56 mins ago

Leads Browns In Receiving In Week 12 Win
Nick Chubb1 hour ago

Scores Two TDs In TNF Win Over Pittsburgh
NFL6 hours ago

Kevin Stefanski, Andrew Berry Likely Returning To Browns In 2025
Deshaun Watson6 hours ago

Likely To Remain With Browns, Could Face Competition
Cedric Tillman6 hours ago

Enters Concussion Protocol
Cedric Tillman8 hours ago

Suffers Head Injury On Thursday Night
Wendell Carter Jr.9 hours ago

Out Against Lakers
Anthony Davis9 hours ago

Available Versus Magic On Thursday
Rui Hachimura9 hours ago

Unavailable Thursday
Carlos Ulberg10 hours ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir10 hours ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes10 hours ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA10 hours ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo10 hours ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan10 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Yves Missi10 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
CJ McCollum11 hours ago

Not Likely To Play Friday
Alexander Mattison11 hours ago

Zamir White Miss Practice Again
Brandon Ingram11 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Shohei Ohtani11 hours ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge11 hours ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Ja'Kobe Walter11 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Donte DiVincenzo11 hours ago

Available Thursday
Mike Conley11 hours ago

Will Not Play Thursday
Jordan Clarkson12 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Ausar Thompson12 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Zach Collins12 hours ago

Cleared To Play Thursday
Domantas Sabonis12 hours ago

Gets Through Full Practice
Chris Paul12 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Brock Purdy12 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Malik Monk12 hours ago

Making Progress
George Kittle12 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Tre Mann12 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Miles Bridges12 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Vince Williams Jr.12 hours ago

Out At Least A Month
Scottie Barnes12 hours ago

Returning On Thursday
Alex Ovechkin13 hours ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Fractured Fibula
Paul George13 hours ago

Out At Least Two Games
Aaron Gordon13 hours ago

Availability In Question For Friday
Zach Hyman13 hours ago

Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
Kent Johnson13 hours ago

Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
Yaroslav Askarov13 hours ago

Makes Sharks Debut Thursday
Jalen Hurts13 hours ago

Practices In Full On Thursday
Mikael Granlund13 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Alexandar Georgiev13 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Capitals
TB13 hours ago

Nicholas Paul Will Miss Thursday's Game
Frederik Andersen13 hours ago

To Miss 8-12 Weeks
Jake Ferguson13 hours ago

Still Not Practicing
Sam LaPorta14 hours ago

Looking Good For A Week 12 Return
Sam Darnold14 hours ago

Upgrades To Full Participation, On Track To Play
Isiah Pacheco14 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
D'Andre Swift14 hours ago

Upgrades To Limited Participant On Thursday
CeeDee Lamb14 hours ago

Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Ladd McConkey14 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Thursday
Mike Evans14 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Thursday
DeVonta Smith16 hours ago

Misses Another Practice
Cody Bellinger16 hours ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
Brandin Cooks16 hours ago

Preparing To Play In Week 12
CeeDee Lamb16 hours ago

Not Seen At Thursday's Practice
17 hours ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chandler Stephenson20 hours ago

Registers Three Assists Versus Predators
Jason Robertson20 hours ago

Totals Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Nils Lundkvist20 hours ago

Exits Early With A Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Knies20 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund20 hours ago

Exits Late With Injury Wednesday
Patrik Laine20 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Chris Sale1 day ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal1 day ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat1 day ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English1 day ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Seth Jones2 days ago

Expected To Miss Four Weeks
Max Domi2 days ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Connor Ingram2 days ago

Out Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen2 days ago

Returns To Action Versus Kings
Alex Tuch2 days ago

Available Wednesday
Tage Thompson2 days ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Jordan Eberle2 days ago

To Remain Out On Wednesday
Ludvig Aberg2 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy2 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole2 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
2 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers2 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
3 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri3 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
3 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
3 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
3 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
3 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil3 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes3 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer4 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
4 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
4 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
4 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler4 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva4 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy4 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
James Llontop5 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig5 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal5 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic5 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones5 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Brian Robinson Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings Running Backs, Waiver Wire Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Bold Predictions for Fantasy Football Week 12: Tua Tagovailoa, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson Jr., Ladd McConkey, Will Dissly

Week 12 is here, and I’m back with another edition of fantasy football bold predictions. This week’s list of bold predictions will include Tua Tagovailoa, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Robinson Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Will Dissly. Every week, I will provide some fun and bold fantasy football predictions. While these bold predictions aren’t the most likely […]


Ladd McConkey - Fantasy Football Rankings, Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 12 Lineups Include Tua Tagovailoa, J.K. Dobbins, Ladd McConkey

Week 11 was pretty kind to us in this space. We correctly labeled Justin Herbert as a boom pick. He threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 65 yards on the ground. It culminated with a QB8 finish. We also nailed Kirk Cousins and Tony Pollard as busts. Cousins and the Falcons […]


Chuba Hubbard - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 Fantasy Football Busts? Players Who May Disappoint Include Jayden Daniels, D'Andre Swift, Chuba Hubbard, Mark Andrews

Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 12 fantasy football busts, or players that may disappoint for fantasy lineups this week. It's a strange week in the NFL with six teams taking their bye week. That could mean lineups are gridlocked and fantasy managers don't have the luxury of analyzing matchups to decide their starters. Potential […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

PrizePicks NFL DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for Week 12 (Sunday Main Slate)

Hello everybody, and welcome to our PrizePicks NFL DFS prop picks for Week 12 - Sunday Main Slate! The 2024 NFL season is now past the midpoint, and our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of. Our partners at PrizePicks offer some of the […]


DeVon Achane - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Injury News

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 12 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 12! There will be a whopping six teams on bye this week  (Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, New Orleans Saints, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets), so that means fantasy managers might need to look deeper on their benches. This Week 12 matchups analysis […]


Bo Nix - Fantasy Football Rankings, QB, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Matchups We Love - Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 12 Include Bo Nix, De'Von Achane, Quentin Johnston, Calvin Ridley, more

It seems as though fantasy managers were either incredibly disappointed or incredibly excited in Week 11. The output was modest for most players. However, if you had a monopoly on a select few players such as Cooper Kupp, Taysom Hill, or the Detroit Lions, you likely won your week. With the fantasy playoffs roughly three weeks […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Week 12 Predictions: Picks and Analysis for Every Game Including Thursday Night Football

After some high-octane matchups over the last couple of Thursday nights, Week 12 kicks off in a more old-school fashion with a classic rivalry game between the Steelers and Browns. There are some fun matchups on this Week 12 slate, however, "Bye-Mageddon" certainly does take a little of the sizzle away, as six teams will […]


TJ Watt - IDP, Pittsburgh Steelers, DST, Defense, Fantasy Football Def

Week 12 Fantasy Football Team Defense Rankings: Steelers D/ST, Chiefs D/ST, Vikings D/ST, Eagles D/ST, Commanders D/ST, Texans D/ST, Broncos D/ST

Fantasy football defenses are largely matchup-dependent, so many fantasy managers opt to stream a different defense each week. If you're in that boat, use our Week 12 fantasy football defense (D/ST) rankings for 2024 to find the top available option. There are just three weeks of the fantasy football regular season left, so it's never […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Steelers vs. Browns TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, Najee Harris, George Pickens

The Week 12 TNF game between two bitter AFC North rivals (Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers) is not likely to end up like the Thursday night game from two weeks ago when two different AFC North teams (Bengals and Ravens) battled to a 35-34 shootout. Somewhere deep in the charter of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I […]


DJ Moore - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Deebo Samuel, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy, Jonathon Brooks, Jauan Jennings, Tank Dell

Many fantasy managers are in must-win situations down the stretch, so it's never been more important to ace your start-or-sit calls. Our Week 12 TNF fantasy football overall rankings for 2024 are here to help. Ahead of the critical Week 12 slate of action, let's find out where players on the start-sit bubble such as […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football FLEX Rankings (RB, WR, TE) - Week 12 Thursday Updates for Chuba Hubbard, Calvin Ridley, Cedric Tillman, Jonnu Smith, Austin Ekeler

It's always tough to compare two flex options at different positions, but bye weeks and key injuries have made those start-sit decisions even tougher. We're here to help guide you with your lineup calls with our Week 12 TNF fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. Navigate the rankings below to find out where top flex […]


Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Superflex 2QB Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, Austin Ekeler, Jayden Reed

Time is running out to collect "Ws" before the fantasy football playoffs begin, and if you need assistance, our Week 12 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for fantasy football can assist your start-or-sit efforts. Let's get to it! To begin Week 12 preparation, let's dig into the rankings to find out where key Superflex options […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Running Back Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday RB Updates for Jonathon Brooks, J.K. Dobbins, Bucky Irving, Najee Harris, Kareem Hunt

We're onto Week 12 of the NFL campaign, which can only mean the fantasy football playoffs are just ahead. Whether you're at the top of your league standings, fighting for a playoff spot, or are just trying to play spoiler, our Week 12 TNF fantasy football running back rankings for 2024 are here to help you […]