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Eric looks at some poor MLB defenders whose fantasy baseball stock could take a hit heading into 2023 drafts.
The Super Bowl is over and it's time for everybody to turn their attention over to the joys of fantasy baseball. At this point in the preseason, fantasy baseball managers should be working through their projections, whether it's making their own or going through the projections given by their favorite system, like the ATC projections from Ariel Cohen, which you can find on RotoBaller.
While we individuals are usually not smarter than the projections, we can begin to find value or potential concern by looking at what the projections might have missed. The easiest way to do that is with playing time adjustments, and the most often forgotten about reason players lose playing time is poor defense. While there are some teams that will accommodate bad defenders, many teams will try to limit having a liability on the field, which could mean that player is benched a few times a week or taken out late in games for a defensive replacement. In either case, you could be losing valuable at-bats, which you don't want.
In this article, I'm going to go through some of the worst defenders in 2022 based on Outs Above Average (OAA), a stat that attempts to tell us how many outs a player's defense saved above the average level of defense at that position. I'll also have a separate section for second base specifically due to the new shift rules. Let's dive in.
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Poor 2B Defenders Who Could Lose Playing Time
I wanted to create a special section for 2B here now that the MLB has banned the shift. One of the things we might see as a result is teams start to prioritize defense more at that position to help maintain some of the shift-related benefits of taking away pulled ground ball hits. While it might not be a decision teams make all game long, we could see far more late-inning substitutions for plus-defensive 2B to help protect leads.
Below, you'll see charts for the worst 2B in 2022 based on OAA and also RngR, which identifies the players with the worst range at the position. Obviously, a 2B with better range will be more useful if you're hoping he covers more ground to take away those pulled groundballs.
OAA at 2B (min 500 innings)
RngR at 2B (min 500 innings)
Nolan Gorman
Right off the bat, we see Nolan Gorman's name up there twice, which is not good news, especially on a team like St. Louis, which values these kinds of metrics. It's also not a surprise to see Gorman up here because he came up through the minor league system as a 3B but had to find a new home when Nolan Arenado landed with the Cardinals.
With Arenado still there, it seems like Gorman is competing for 2B/DH at-bats with Brendan Donovan and Juan Yepez, but these numbers won't help his case for playing time at 2B. He's still a young player, so there is obviously time for him to improve as a defender, but we might still be looking at around 300-330 plate appearances for Gorman given the crowded lineup and defensive concerns.
Jonathan India
India is another name that appears on both lists. Even though he was hurt last year, India also posted a -7 OAA in 2021, which means he has two really subpar defensive years in the majors. That's again, something that might not be a shock since India came up through the minors as a 3B and only played five innings at 2B in the minor leagues.
However, India has two things going for him that make me less concerned about his playing time. For starters, the Reds don't seem to be in a position to really compete this year, so I can't see them taking away his playing time late in games for defensive switches. The second reason I'm not concerned is that the Reds could easily move India back to 3B if they wanted. They currently have Spencer Steer slated to play there but Steer also has plenty of innings at 2B in the minors, so the Reds can play around with swapping those two. Regardless, this doesn't impact my playing time projection on India.
Thairo Estrada
Estrada is the last player to appear on both lists, which is a concern given that he plays on a Giants team that loves to platoon players and use mid-game substitutions. Estrada doesn't have any obvious platoon splits so most projection systems have him for 550 plate appearances; however, he has 11th-percentile arm strength and below-average range, which could hurt him if he needs to cover more ground at 2B.
His OAA score actually isn't all that bad at just -1, so that alone doesn't concern me, but the below-average range added to it is a bit concerning, especially since his RngR measured even worse at 2B in 2021. I could easily see the Giants wanting to make a defense-first move late in games, so it's possible Estrada loses some at-bats to substitutions, which makes me more comfortable projecting plate appearances closer to 500 for him than 550.
If you don't think that matters, here is his line with 560 PAs: .258, 14 HRs, 70 Runs, 55 RBI, 19 SB.
Here is his line with 500 PA using the same per/PA rates: .258, 12 HR, 62 Runs, 49 RBI, 16 SB
In my projections, that moves him from the 96th-ranked hitter to the 129th-ranked hitter, so it's no minor change.
Other Names
Some other names to consider here are Luis Rengifo and Jorge Polanco. Polanco's OAA is pretty brutal, and the team has an intriguing super-sub in Nick Gordon, who could see more time at 2B or get more late-inning at-bats. If you search on Statcast for the worst OAA by 2B when they have to go to their left (which you'd do on pulled groundballs), Jorge Polanco was the worst-ranked at -7. Gorman was second-worst, India was fifth-worst, and Estrada was sixth-worst.
Rengifo is also now on a team that has Brandon Drury, who had a 0 OAA and a 0.2 RngR. Rengifo has better range, but if Drury is the more reliable defender at 2B, that could impact playing time.
Brandon Lowe has also been a poor defender at 2B for years, putting together a -5 OAA season in 2019, a -7 OAA season in 2021, and a -3 OAA season last year. The Rays also platoon heavily and shift a lot, so while it hasn't seemed to impact Lowe's playing time so far, it's also important to remember that Lowe only has one year with over 327 plate appearances, and he got hurt last year, which prevented us from seeing how much leash Tampa Bay was going to give him.
Given that Taylor Walls, Jonathan Aranda, and Vidal Brujan can all play 2B, it's possible that Lowe could have just around 500 plate appearances, instead of the 580 some projections have him at if his defense continues to struggle without the shift.
Other Bad Defenders Who Could Lose Playing Time
Worst defenders by OAA
There are a few players at the top I'm not overly concerned about. Andrew Vaughn is moving back to 1B, so we don't need to worry about his LF defensive metrics. Similarly, Juan Soto is not being removed from games regardless of his defensive stats, and Luis Garcia should have a long enough leash on this Nationals team. He's not going to be removed from games just for defense.
Also, there are tons of Phillies on this list, but it's clear that Philadelphia really doesn't care about defense. The only player I would be worried about a bit is Alec Bohm since Josh Harrison is now in town and had a positive OAA at 3B last year. I just wouldn't overreact to this because the Phillies aren't a team to make too many decisions based on defense.
Amed Rosario
I'm a little worried about Rosario's defensive metrics. The team already tried to move him to CF at one point, so they've shown they'll move him off of SS. He had a solid year for the Guardians last year but hitting .280 with 11 home runs and 18 stolen bases doesn't mandate you stay in the lineup full-time if the defense isn't there, especially for a team that wants to make the postseason.
The Guardians have some solid defenders behind Rosario too in Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman. I don't expect either one to push Rosario off of SS, but they could cut into his starts or replace him late in games. The team also has Brayan Rocchio starting the year at Triple-A, so there are some options to augment some of Rosario's innings. He's currently projected to have over 610 plate appearances, but I might be more comfortable giving him 570-ish.
Kolten Wong
Wong's numbers are bad, but his range metrics are league average, so I'm not sure he'll be impacted by the lack of shift. In fact, Wong appeared to be the worst when being asked to play in, ranking as the worst 2B in the league when playing in. The Mariners also went out and got Wong in a trade, so it's unlikely they don't know about his defensive issues. As a result, I don't expect them to cut into his starts, and both Dylan Moore and Tommy La Stella are fairly average defenders at 2B, so there isn't a logical late-game replacement for Wong, but I do think this is something to at least keep an eye on.
Jesse Winker
Last, we have Jesse Winker. Now, outfielders usually aren't often removed as late-game replacements, but according to Roster Resource, Winker is set to be the Brewers' DH with Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, and Tyrone Taylor in the outfield.
That's not good for Winker, whose defense isn't really good enough to force his way onto the field, which means he's a DH who has a great eye at the plate but hits .250-.260 with 18 home run power. That's not the type of player a team feels they NEED to have in the lineup. As a result, I think Winker is looking at sub-500 plate appearances and likely something around 480 even if we were to give him a clean bill of health.
Other Players to be Concerned About
Quick Thoughts
Christopher Morel is going to get a long leash at 3B, especially since Patrick Wisdom is also a poor defender, but the Cubs didn't bring in veterans like Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, and Trey Mancini to rebuild. Given his poor defense, Morel is going to need to hit in order to play, and going .194/.269/.645 in the second half of last year with a 34.2% strikeout rate is a concern. I like Morel, but projecting 500 plate appearances for him feels very risky.
Yandy Diaz is potentially moving to 1B with Isaac Paredes at 3B, so maybe his OAA at 3B isn't a concern, but at some point, the Rays could also just move on from the 31-year-old Diaz. He provides a solid batting average, but he doesn't run, has minimal power, and is not a great defender. With guys like Kyle Manzardo, Jonathan Aranda, and Curtis Mead all in Tampa, I can easily see the Rays cutting down on Yandy's plate appearances this year. I'm going under his 580 projected by a good bit.
Seth Brown and Austin Hays are being drafted because they seem like sure bets for at-bats, but are they? If their defense is subpar, there is no real reason for either team to keep running these guys out there since they are basically league-average or slightly better hitters.
The Athletics traded for J.J. Bleday and now have Aledmys Diaz and Christian Pache on the bench; each of those guys could take at-bats from Brown, especially if Oakland wants Pache's defense. The Orioles could also decide that Kyle Stowers is their everyday LF, which would mean that Hays has to battle for at-bats with part-time players like Jorge Mateo, Terrin Vavra, Ryan O'Hearn, and Franchy Cordero or lose time to former first-round pick Colton Cowser, who is knocking on the door.
Oscar Gonzalez and Ty France are poor defenders on teams that want to make the postseason. They're solid hitters, so I don't think we can project them to lose time, but let's just say their leashes won't be long if they aren't hitting.
Max Muncy is a fade for me this year. He never had surgery on his elbow injury, he doesn't have the range to play 2B without the shift, and he also grades out as a poor defensive first baseman. He's certainly going to play for Los Angeles (if he's healthy), but I can easily see him losing plate appearances to Chris Taylor, Miguel Rojas, and Miguel Vargas when the Dodgers make subs for defensive purposes late in games.
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