Second-Year Surgers for Fantasy Football - If At First You Don't Succeed

August 31, 2023

Justin shares five second-year fantasy football sleepers you should target in 2023 fantasy football drafts. These NFL players should have a big fantasy impact.

Sometimes, rookies make an immediate impact in the NFL. For example, Kenneth Walker III and Tyler Allgeier both rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave both had 1,000-yard receiving campaigns.

Other times, it can take a while for players to get going. Today, I want to focus on players who didn't have huge rookie campaigns. For the purposes of this article, I'm looking at running backs with under 500-ish rushing yards and receivers/tight ends with under 500 receiving yards (with an injury caveat as well, which is why Breece Hall isn't in this article).

Below are five second-year NFL players who should have strong sophomore campaigns after not setting the world on fire as rookies.

James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills

The use of "500-ish" instead of 500 in my intro was specifically so I could talk about James Cook. The Buffalo Bills running back had 507 rushing yards last season.

Cook saw 89 carries last season for the Bills. He was third on the team behind Devin Singletary (177) and Josh Allen (124). However, Singletary is now in Houston. While his replacement, former Patriots running back Damien Harris, is going to end up with a sizable role, I think it's Cook who will lead this backfield.

I was impressed by what we saw out of Cook last season. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry, which was 1.1 more than Singletary did. Cook also caught 21 passes. His efficiency stats were also really intriguing. Per PlayerProfiler, Cook was second among running backs in true yards per carry, third in yards per touch, and first in breakaway run rate.

Obviously, those numbers should drop as he scales up his workload. It's harder to be efficient on a per-play basis when you're on the field more. Assuming the Bills don't make any additions to this backfield, Cook has a chance to be a solid fantasy RB2 with RB1 upside based on his skill set. However, Harris will probably eat up a little too much red zone work for that to happen.

Rachaad White - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Like Cook, Rachaad White's value rises because an incumbent is no longer on the team, as Leonard Fournette is still a free agent. As it stands right now, White should have even less competition for touches than Cook has.

The Tampa Bay backfield is White, then Chase Edmonds, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, and a few other names, including undrafted free agent Sean Tucker. Edmonds had 245 yards last year. Vaughn had 53. White has a chance to finish with some strong numbers in 2023 from volume alone, as there's no one who really stands to threaten his snaps unless White struggles.

As a rookie, White rushed for 481 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Whereas Cook's value comes from his big-play ability, White's path to being a fantasy RB2 is much more about volume. He was just 65th in true yards per carry last year. If White can just hit his holes and stay on the field, the sheer amount of opportunities he'll get will allow him to have a much-improved second NFL season.

Skyy Moore - WR, Kansas City Chiefs

My wife's a big Chiefs fan, so I got to experience the highs and lows of Skyy Moore last year. The high was when he was drafted and all the Chiefs fans were convinced he was going to be a stud. The lows were every time Moore went back to return a punt.

As a receiver, Moore saw just 33 targets as a rookie, catching 22 of them for 250 yards. He didn't have a touchdown reception in the regular season. He did find the end zone for the first time in a big spot, catching a four-yard touchdown pass in the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs let JuJu Smith-Schuster walk in the offseason, something that should hand Moore a starting role next to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Kadarius Toney. This is a really fascinating receiving room because there's definitely talent but there isn't a ton of NFL production.

Because of that, Moore's path to 70-plus targets is relatively open. Smith-Schuster's 101 targets last year need to go somewhere. Valdes-Scantling had 81 of his own, so I expect the bulk of those vacated targets to go toward Moore and Toney.

Tyquan Thornton - WR, New England Patriots

As a rookie, Tyquan Thornton was targeted 45 times, catching 22 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns. He was seventh on the team in targets.

Two of the receivers ahead of him in 2022, Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor, are gone. The Patriots added Smith-Schuster in free agency, but Thornton should still be on the field a lot in three-receiver sets. This sets up a much-improved second NFL campaign for the Baylor product.

One good sign: Thornton's usage rose late in the 2022 season. In four of his final five games, Thornton had a snap share of 88% or better as the Patriots worked to get the rookie on the field.

He also made the impressive catch above in the team's preseason game against Houston. That's mostly meaningless in terms of analyzing his 2023 impact as it was a preseason play, but it was such a good catch that I had to bring it up.

Chigoziem Okonkwo - TE, Tennessee Titans

There was a lot of Chigoziem Okonkwo hype at one point this summer. However, the addition of DeAndre Hopkins killed a lot of that. I still think Okonkwo is a player worth getting excited over in 2023.

Will a lot of targets go toward Hopkins? Sure. But the Titans still have a pass-catching problem. They have no obvious players beyond Hopkins, Okonkwo, and Treylon Burks to make plays in the passing game. The Titans won't be a pass-heavy team, but that might not really matter when there are just three key weapons for Ryan Tannehill.

Okonkwo is still going to have opportunities, and I still believe he can do something with those opportunities. He's an incredible athlete, running a 4.52 40-yard dash, and that speed showed itself in his numbers last season. Per PlayerProfiler, he led all tight ends in yards per route run and yards per reception, as well as fantasy points per route run. On a per-play basis, his athleticism translated into production. However, he was just 30th among tight ends in targets, which limited his upside. With Austin Hooper gone, that should change.

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