How Superior Setup Men Provide Value to Closers - AL Focus

The goal of the previous column in this series was to propose that the home runs allowed by relief pitchers have a significant impact on fantasy teams, even when those pitchers do not make the roster. While a baseball truism on some levels, home runs given up late in games tend to diminish the number of save opportunities that a closer may have. This week the focus is the same, but the league is different with a shift to the American League. Once again, the players studied are the projected 8th inning pitchers for each team according to Roster Resource.

While both leagues have been affected by the long ball, the AL has a bit of a different trend. In 2016 the average AL set-up man gave up 6.06 HRs compared to 4.3 from their NL counterparts. The splits swap in 2017 with AL pitchers giving up 6.4 compared to the NL line of 6.9. The numbers follow that in 2016 AL pitchers gave up more leads via the long ball, but in 2017 this flipped to the NL. Different players and different parks account for some of this difference, but at the same time, it can be argued that this shows the quality of the AL bullpen over the 2017 season in comparison.

Below are closers that we want you to target and avoid due to their set-up pairing.  When possible buy-low, and when you have a closer we do not like, sell while you have the chance.

The Anatomy of an Effective Setup Man

Looking to Roster Resource’s projected 8th inning pitcher for 2018, and these pitcher’s past stats, some interesting trends emerge. The average expected set-up man gave up 4.33 HRs in 2016, and 6.86 in 2017. Of these, 0.53 lost leads in 2016, and that number ballooned to 0.87 in 2017. The interesting note is that of these pitchers the majority of HRs came when behind. In 2016 the average was 2.2, and in 2017 it was 2.3. Overall more balls are leaving the yard when the pitcher is behind in the score, but that number narrows when the team is in the lead. Perhaps this means that pitchers are more cautious in lead-saving roles, or maybe more aggressive when pitching from behind? Whatever the case in 2017 the average closer lost close to a save opportunity a year, which might not seem like much, but when taken into context with individual pitchers the number is much starker.

Below are closers that we want you to target and avoid due to their set-up pairing.  When possible buy-low, and when you have a closer we do not like, sell while you have the chance.

RP Pairings to target

Houston - Ken Giles (RP, HOU) and Chris Devenski (CL, HOU)

Not only is Houston one of the top teams for fantasy production this year, but also they can claim to have two legitimate closers. Currently, Roster Resource lists Devenski as the closer, but fantasy owners should also have Giles when possible.  Giles tends to drop off or lose his job from past track record but still serves as one of the more reliable in a shaky field of relief pitchers. In 2016-17 Giles gave up zero leads via the home run, which makes his background as a closer even more valuable.  Most of Giles’s long balls came with the score tied, with three in 2016 and one in 2017. If anything, with Giles as the potential 8th inning guy, a closer might lose some chances for late rallies, but regarding holding leads, this seems like one of the top plays.  If he ends up as the closer, this works out fine for owners as well.

Save opportunities saved = +2

Los Angeles - Blake Wood (RP, LAA) and Keynan Middleton (CL, LAA)

Another exciting play since Mike Scioscia will not formally name a closer.  Due to this, the closer slot might not help as much if the pitcher himself changes.  Still, whomever Blake Wood is pitching in front of should be a target in fantasy leagues.  Wood is a fascinating profile in this metric as he gave up a total of 17 home runs in 2016-17 combined. Still, he gave up no leads via the home run in 2017 after losing two in 2016.  Why should you expect the former to hold true? Since moving to Los Angeles Wood has seen his IF/FB% spike to a career-high 13% in 2017, and up even higher to 18% so far this season. Couple that with a decrease in HR/FB% to 11.1 this season, the change in parks seems to be helping.  Wood also posted a career-low 64.6 LOB% past season, which if it edges closer to the career average of 71.6% even more proof of his potential in the role.

Save opportunities saved = +1

Oakland - Pagan (RP, OAK) and Blake Treinen (CL, OAK)

The final name on the list completes the tour of the AL West. When Pagan was traded to Oakland from Seattle, there was some shock as he served as a legitimate back of the bullpen pitcher in his rookie year.  Even more impressive? No leads lost via the long ball in 2017. In fact, while many of Pagan’s home runs came when he had the lead, few of them occurred with runners on base. Pagan seems to be aggressive with the bases open, and then finetune based on the situation.  A career IF/FB% of 16% also hints at a trend of batters being way behind on his pitches, or at least not being able to adjust to the situation as well as Pagan.

Saves opportunities saved = +2

RP Duos to Avoid

Kansas City - Justin Grimm (RP, KC) and Kelvin Herrera (CL, KC)

Herrera on his own might be one of the elite closers, or at least if you throw out last year, certainly looks to be in that mold.  With a weak team, every save opportunity here counts. Enter Grimm. His 12 home runs last year close to doubles the average of 6.5 from the other pitchers on the list.  Even worse? A total of five leads lost via the home runs over the past two seasons. Stay away from this situation unless Grimm is out and some legitimate pitchers emerge.  

Save opportunities saved = -3

Seattle - Juan Nicasio (RP, SEA) and Edwin Diaz (CL, SEA)

Much like Herrera, Diaz is perhaps one of the top closer targets in the field for this year and has pitched like an All-Star this year.  Why then is this duo on the avoid list? In the past two season, Nicasio has given up 20 bombs, with a total of four losing leads. The good news?  The home runs dropped to five last year, and none lost the lead in the previous campaign. Still, no track record should lead an owner to avoid this duo.  A career low 0.63 GB/FB rate while with the Cardinals also hints at more luck than an actual change to support the limited home runs.

Save opportunities saved = -2

Tampa Bay - Sergio Romo (RP, TB) and Alex Colome (CL, TB)

Colome perhaps entered the year as a top closer, but so far has pitched bad enough that he will be in Tampa Bay the rest of this year.  Romo has been above average concerning home runs allowed and also regarding of leads lost via the home run. Even more, a 5.1 HR/FB% in 2017 is well below career average, and still, he shot to the top of the leaderboard in the wrong way.  Expect the average of the previous three years (14.8%) to be closer to where he ends up this year.

Save opportunities saved = - 2

More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis