X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

How Superior Setup Men Provide Value to Closers - AL Focus

The goal of the previous column in this series was to propose that the home runs allowed by relief pitchers have a significant impact on fantasy teams, even when those pitchers do not make the roster. While a baseball truism on some levels, home runs given up late in games tend to diminish the number of save opportunities that a closer may have. This week the focus is the same, but the league is different with a shift to the American League. Once again, the players studied are the projected 8th inning pitchers for each team according to Roster Resource.

While both leagues have been affected by the long ball, the AL has a bit of a different trend. In 2016 the average AL set-up man gave up 6.06 HRs compared to 4.3 from their NL counterparts. The splits swap in 2017 with AL pitchers giving up 6.4 compared to the NL line of 6.9. The numbers follow that in 2016 AL pitchers gave up more leads via the long ball, but in 2017 this flipped to the NL. Different players and different parks account for some of this difference, but at the same time, it can be argued that this shows the quality of the AL bullpen over the 2017 season in comparison.

Below are closers that we want you to target and avoid due to their set-up pairing.  When possible buy-low, and when you have a closer we do not like, sell while you have the chance.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Anatomy of an Effective Setup Man

Looking to Roster Resource’s projected 8th inning pitcher for 2018, and these pitcher’s past stats, some interesting trends emerge. The average expected set-up man gave up 4.33 HRs in 2016, and 6.86 in 2017. Of these, 0.53 lost leads in 2016, and that number ballooned to 0.87 in 2017. The interesting note is that of these pitchers the majority of HRs came when behind. In 2016 the average was 2.2, and in 2017 it was 2.3. Overall more balls are leaving the yard when the pitcher is behind in the score, but that number narrows when the team is in the lead. Perhaps this means that pitchers are more cautious in lead-saving roles, or maybe more aggressive when pitching from behind? Whatever the case in 2017 the average closer lost close to a save opportunity a year, which might not seem like much, but when taken into context with individual pitchers the number is much starker.

Below are closers that we want you to target and avoid due to their set-up pairing.  When possible buy-low, and when you have a closer we do not like, sell while you have the chance.

 

RP Pairings to target

Houston - Ken Giles (RP, HOU) and Chris Devenski (CL, HOU)

Not only is Houston one of the top teams for fantasy production this year, but also they can claim to have two legitimate closers. Currently, Roster Resource lists Devenski as the closer, but fantasy owners should also have Giles when possible.  Giles tends to drop off or lose his job from past track record but still serves as one of the more reliable in a shaky field of relief pitchers. In 2016-17 Giles gave up zero leads via the home run, which makes his background as a closer even more valuable.  Most of Giles’s long balls came with the score tied, with three in 2016 and one in 2017. If anything, with Giles as the potential 8th inning guy, a closer might lose some chances for late rallies, but regarding holding leads, this seems like one of the top plays.  If he ends up as the closer, this works out fine for owners as well.

Save opportunities saved = +2

Los Angeles - Blake Wood (RP, LAA) and Keynan Middleton (CL, LAA)

Another exciting play since Mike Scioscia will not formally name a closer.  Due to this, the closer slot might not help as much if the pitcher himself changes.  Still, whomever Blake Wood is pitching in front of should be a target in fantasy leagues.  Wood is a fascinating profile in this metric as he gave up a total of 17 home runs in 2016-17 combined. Still, he gave up no leads via the home run in 2017 after losing two in 2016.  Why should you expect the former to hold true? Since moving to Los Angeles Wood has seen his IF/FB% spike to a career-high 13% in 2017, and up even higher to 18% so far this season. Couple that with a decrease in HR/FB% to 11.1 this season, the change in parks seems to be helping.  Wood also posted a career-low 64.6 LOB% past season, which if it edges closer to the career average of 71.6% even more proof of his potential in the role.

Save opportunities saved = +1

Oakland - Pagan (RP, OAK) and Blake Treinen (CL, OAK)

The final name on the list completes the tour of the AL West. When Pagan was traded to Oakland from Seattle, there was some shock as he served as a legitimate back of the bullpen pitcher in his rookie year.  Even more impressive? No leads lost via the long ball in 2017. In fact, while many of Pagan’s home runs came when he had the lead, few of them occurred with runners on base. Pagan seems to be aggressive with the bases open, and then finetune based on the situation.  A career IF/FB% of 16% also hints at a trend of batters being way behind on his pitches, or at least not being able to adjust to the situation as well as Pagan.

Saves opportunities saved = +2

 

RP Duos to Avoid

Kansas City - Justin Grimm (RP, KC) and Kelvin Herrera (CL, KC)

Herrera on his own might be one of the elite closers, or at least if you throw out last year, certainly looks to be in that mold.  With a weak team, every save opportunity here counts. Enter Grimm. His 12 home runs last year close to doubles the average of 6.5 from the other pitchers on the list.  Even worse? A total of five leads lost via the home runs over the past two seasons. Stay away from this situation unless Grimm is out and some legitimate pitchers emerge.  

Save opportunities saved = -3

Seattle - Juan Nicasio (RP, SEA) and Edwin Diaz (CL, SEA)

Much like Herrera, Diaz is perhaps one of the top closer targets in the field for this year and has pitched like an All-Star this year.  Why then is this duo on the avoid list? In the past two season, Nicasio has given up 20 bombs, with a total of four losing leads. The good news?  The home runs dropped to five last year, and none lost the lead in the previous campaign. Still, no track record should lead an owner to avoid this duo.  A career low 0.63 GB/FB rate while with the Cardinals also hints at more luck than an actual change to support the limited home runs.

Save opportunities saved = -2

Tampa Bay - Sergio Romo (RP, TB) and Alex Colome (CL, TB)

Colome perhaps entered the year as a top closer, but so far has pitched bad enough that he will be in Tampa Bay the rest of this year.  Romo has been above average concerning home runs allowed and also regarding of leads lost via the home run. Even more, a 5.1 HR/FB% in 2017 is well below career average, and still, he shot to the top of the leaderboard in the wrong way.  Expect the average of the previous three years (14.8%) to be closer to where he ends up this year.

Save opportunities saved = - 2

 

More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF