X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Hitters To Have A Big Second Half? Strikeout Rate Improvements for Fantasy Baseball

Rowdy Tellez - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, First Base Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Jon Anderson compares recent strikeout rates to early-season results to find hitters that have most improved and could be fantasy baseball risers.

One good way to find hitters to help your fantasy team during the stretch run is to see which hitters have been striking out less as the year has gone by. The strikeout rate is far from the only thing to consider with a hitter, and it's probably not even the most important statistic - but it is a statistic that we can rely on over a relatively small sample size. If a player has cut their strikeout rate in half over a sample of 100 plate appearances or so, it's a pretty good bet that the change will be at least somewhat sustained moving forward.

We did this last season and found a few players that were really great down the stretch -- the names Hunter Renfroe and Jorge Soler come to mind! As with those two cases, it's much more interesting when the strikeout rate improvers also hit the ball with authority, so we will keep this in mind.

I'll highlight the most interesting names I have found, and then give you the full data table at the end. I have restricted this to only hitters that have at least 100 plate appearances in both samples (the halfway point of the season conveniently right now sits at May 31st, so we're comparing April and May to June and July).

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics

Split K%
Apr-May 26.7%
Jun-Jul 15.8%

Season line: .245/.315/.429, 11 HR, 10.9% Brl%, 21.5% K%
Since June 1st: .296/.359/.486, 6 HR, 12.9% Brl%, 15.6% K%

He is a guy that could get moved at the trade deadline, which would be huge for his fantasy value given that he hits in one of the worst lineups in the league in a tough ballpark.

He would be upgrading in everything (except maybe where he hits in the lineup) with a trade. He has long shown us the ability to hit the long ball, and that's been happening a lot over the last two months as he's cut down his strikeout rate. Check out Murphy if you need a catcher.

 

Jesus Sanchez, Miami Marlins

Split K%
Apr-May 31.4%
Jun-Jul 21.5%

We saw Sanchez come out of the gate with a reduced strikeout rate and got pretty excited for him early on this season. Those gains didn't stick around as his K% eventually ended up above 30% again. However, since June 3rd, the K% has been below 30% and it continues to fall:

 

 

The problem we have here is that his barrel rate has been falling with it. This may be a conscious effort to strike out less, which could mean he's been swinging the bat less quickly on purpose to make more contact:


 

It's been a pretty bad year for Sanchez, and in this case, I don't see the gains in K% really helping him. He actually has a lower SLG in this second half with the lower K% (.395 vs. .365), so we can probably leave Sanchez alone for now - but keep an eye on him moving forward because he is a young, very talented hitter.

 

Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks

Split K%
Apr-May 20.1%
Jun-Jul 11.6%

This mainly has to do with the bad April he put up, but if we draw the line down the middle, we see that Ketel had a .404 SLG over his first 189 PAs, and now over the last 164, he has a huge .522 mark. The 9.2% barrel rate and 82.3% contact% are great marks to go with the insanely low 11.6% K%.

He's been a fantasy stud since June and the good times will probably keep going. Hold on tight to Marte if you roster him, and throw out some buy-high offers on him if you don't.

 

Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers

Split K%
Apr-May 24.0%
Jun-Jul 16.1%

Rowdy didn't have much of a problem with the strikeout over the first two months, as you can see the decent 24% rate there. He pounded 10 homers in 175 PAs in that sample with a .500 SLG and a 15% barrel rate.

Over his last 180 plate appearances, he's lowered the strikeout rate to 16%, however, like Sanchez, everything else has gotten worse. He's hit just eight homers with a .219 batting average, a .406 SLG, and a 9.8% barrel rate.

His ground-ball rate has recently crossed 40%, and the hard-hit rate has also come down to a near season-low 44% right now. The 16% K% is encouraging for a guy of this stature (the raw power isn't in question), but the swing path doesn't seem to be working too well right now.

Rowdy might be a good guy to jump on if someone in your league drops him, but I think the best days of his season might be behind us.

 

Patrick Wisdom, Chicago Cubs

Split K%
Apr-May 38.3%
Jun-Jul 31.0%

Yes, it's pretty easy to improve your strikeout rate when it's currently sitting at 38%. But give credit where credit is due - Wisdom has done it.

He is yet another guy that hasn't directly gained in the box score due to the lower strikeout rate, with just seven homers over his last 209 plate appearances while slashing .220/.335/.407, but we know this guy has massive raw power and some stolen base ability too - so any strikeout rate near or below 30% makes him a fantasy asset.

Wisdom is what Wisdom is, a guy that will go insanely, insanely cold for stretches - but also a guy who can win you a week by himself. I'm taking the 31% K% since June 1st as a positive sign, and I might be willing to start him in leagues where I have a decent batting average core.

 

Ji-Man Choi, Tampa Bay Rays

Split K%
Apr-May 32.5%
Jun-Jul 24.5%

Choi is having the best season of his career with a .266/.370/.428 line, but he's still hardly rostered. He's not quite an everyday player for the Rays, and the .428 SLG leaves a lot to be desired (he has hit just seven homers this season). He also doesn't steal any bases, so he's a borderline fantasy asset at best.

That said, the strikeout rate gains are encouraging, and he's a pretty interesting hitter for deep leagues - and a pretty good guy to stream in against righties (career 129 wRC+ against RHP).

Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves

Split K%
Apr-May 30.2%
Jun-Jul 23.4%

On April 24th, Swanson sat with a 40.6% K% and was dropped in plenty of fantasy leagues. All he's done since then is hit .311/.366/.503 with 15 homers in 347 plate appearances, being one of the most valuable fantasy bats in the game.

That elite production has followed the strikeout rate gains, and his 23.4% K% since June 1st is right there at league average while his power production is well above.

He has been promoted to the top of the Braves lineup and the counting stats are coming in bunches. Congrats to you if you acquired Swanson for cheap this year.

Here is the full interactive data table, it shows all hitters with 100 plate appearances in both samples, and it shows everybody. You can search or sort your heart out, enjoy!

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF