High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 5)

October 3, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 5 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series High-Value Touches and Opportunities for Week 5 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. 

With passing numbers down, we'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line, but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Chuba Hubbard led Week 4 with five rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line, though it was unexpected. However, he exploded against the Bengals defense. Hubbard had the sixth-highest rush share (62.1 percent) and a respectable 10 percent target share in Week 4.

That's close to his season-long rush and target shares, making us wonder what the Panthers backfield will look like when Jonathon Brooks makes his debut.

Bucky Irving had four rushing attempts inside the 10, scoring on one of them. Irving accounted for 60 percent of the team's rush attempts inside the five, with Rachaad White having zero in Week 4. Baker Mayfield took the other two carries inside the 10, scoring on one of them.

White (38.8 PPR) and Irving (35.7) have nearly identical fantasy point totals through four weeks, something we likely didn't project this early into the season. That's partly because Irving has eaten into White's workload, with a 43.6 percent rush share for Irving and 37.2 percent for White. Meanwhile, White doubles Irving in target share (12.5 percent vs. 6.2 percent).

The main separator for Irving involves rushing efficiency, evidenced by his -0.9 rushing yards over expected per attempt compared to White having the third worst at -1.49, ahead of Javonte Williams and D'Andre Swift before Week 4.

Irving has been the most explosive runner, with an 8.6 percent explosive run rate compared to White, who had a 4.9 percent. Stock up for Irving, especially since he plays on a team averaging the 10th-most EPA/G.

Tank Bigsby has been an explosive rusher in 2024. He boasts the fourth-highest explosive rush rate at 19 percent, with the fifth-best rate of missed tackles forced at 29 percent. Meanwhile, Travis Etienne Jr. has mediocre numbers, evidenced by his 4.3 percent explosive rush rate and 17 percent missed tackles forced.

That's notable because Bigsby might eat into Etienne's workload and potentially steal carries inside the 10, with Etienne at six and Bigsby at two. The slight concern with Bigsby involves the lack of targets, garnering zero through four weeks.

The Commanders backfield has been fruitful playing alongside Jayden Daniels. Brian Robinson Jr. has the third-most carries (10) inside the 10, tying him with Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry. Robinson scored on three of his 10 carries compared to Daniels garnering four touchdowns on his five attempts within the 10-yard line.

Though Robinson shares the backfield with Austin Ekeler and Jeremy McNichols without Ekeler, he garners a serviceable 10.4 percent target share on a team with a rushing quarterback. The Commanders might be a team to buy and invest in because of the high-value rushing attempts.

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

The Giants receivers highlighted their offense on Thursday against the Cowboys, with Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson accounting for a massive 29 targets (72.5 percent target share). Robinson garnered the only two targets inside the 10-yard line on Thursday, yet Nabers remains the first read.

The visual below shows the Week 4 receiving leaders sorted by first-read target share.

That's evident in the whopping 45.2 percent first-read target share in Week 4 against the Cowboys for Nabers aligning with the season-long average of 47.1 percent (No. 2) behind Cooper Kupp. For context, Robinson had two of his five targets inside the 10 in Week 4.

If the Giants passing offense flows through Nabers and Robinson, we could have an actionable data point to hold Robinson. However, he's more of the checkdown option for Daniel Jones, with Robinson averaging a measly 4.5 average target depth.

The visual below shows the season-long receiving leaders sorted by targets inside the 10-yard line.

George Pickens had three targets inside the 10, though he didn't score a touchdown. Before Week 4, Pickens had zero high-value receiving opportunities, and it could be an outlier game. He garners a whopping 35.3 percent first-read target share, ranking eighth among receivers.

That indicates Justin Fields looks toward Pickens on his first read, making him the focal point of the Steelers passing offense, with Pat Freiermuth ranking second on the team at 19.1 percent.

Pickens was one of the WR/CB matchup upgrades against the Colts, and his 15.1 expected fantasy points per game (No. 17) gives us confidence in him as a WR2 with upside moving forward. The only concerning matchup in the next four weeks (DAL, LV, NYJ, and NYG) might be the Jets.

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans had two targets inside the 10 in Week 4, with four for Godwin and Evans at three through four weeks. Here's the interesting data point for Godwin and Evans. They have nearly identical expected fantasy points per game, with Evans at 13.7 and Godwin at 13.8. However, Godwin has been the most efficient, with 19.3 fantasy points compared to Evans at 14.4.

Godwin edges Evans in first-read target share (33.7 percent vs. 25.8 percent). However, Evans garnering six end-zone targets compared to one for Godwin might suggest boom games coming for Evans, especially considering Godwin's uber-efficiency in fantasy points over expected via the receiving yardage.

Over the weekend, I posted about Javonte Williams facing the highest rate of eight or more defenders in the box, partly causing some of his rushing struggles. That suggests opposing defenses have been daring the Broncos to pass the ball, with Bo Nix being inefficient. However, Courtland Sutton had three targets inside the 10 in Week 4, catching one touchdown.

What might be surprising is Sutton ranks seventh in expected fantasy points per game, yet one of three receivers averaging under 12 fantasy points per contest among the top 10 in EP/G.

Besides Sutton's 10.1 PPR, Amari Cooper (10.7) and Tee Higgins (9.5) made the underperformers. Higgins might be the top buy-low option, with Sutton and Cooper being cheaper buys while acknowledging the inconsistencies with their quarterback.

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

The leaders in the third- and fourth-down receiving opportunities have presented some intriguing names in past weeks, including Quentin Johnston. Week 4 involves Josh Downs, Wan'Dale Robinson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Terry McLaurin standing out besides Nico Collins, who continues to push into the elite tier.

The visual below shows the Week 4 receiving leaders sorted by the highest third- and fourth-down target share.

Downs benefited from Joe Flacco filling in as quarterback, with Anthony Richardson leaving with an injury. Flacco would raise the receiving ceiling for Downs and Michael Pittman Jr., but Richardson's injury doesn't sound serious.

It's a small sample, but Downs rocks the third-highest first-read target share at 37.8 percent behind Kupp and Nabers. That's slightly better than Pittman at 31.9 percent (No. 17), indicating the Colts receiving offense flows through these two. Keep tabs on Richardson's injury because that could raise or temper expectations if Flacco starts again.

Wicks was one of the most discussed sleepers but lacked playing time before Week 4 due to the crowded Packers receiver room. That's evident in Wicks having a lowly 36.7 percent route rate in Weeks 1-3 before booming to 75 percent in Week 4. Christian Watson suffered a high ankle sprain, with a possibility of hitting injured reserve, meaning stock up for Wicks.

Besides Robinson, who had a week-high nine targets on third and fourth down, and the other options discussed, Kirk might be a receiver on the rise based on his Week 4 usage. Kirk popped in the expected fantasy points leaderboard, which might surprise us as a player who primarily plays in the slot (75.9 percent).

That's partially due to Kirk's higher air yards share (43.8 percent) and average target depth (14.7) among the slot route rate leaders. Among receivers with a slot route rate of 75 percent or higher, Jaxon Smith-Njigba trails matched Kirk, with a 25 percent air yards share and 7.2 average target depth.

Smith-Njigba also showed up on the target share leaders on third and fourth down. It's logical for the Jaguars to lean more on Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr. since they'll likely be in negative game scripts moving forward. 

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