High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 17)

December 25, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 17 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities," for Week 17 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're in the fantasy football playoffs, hoping we survive through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value opportunities. 

Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

With David Montgomery out, Jahmyr Gibbs had six of his 23 carries inside the 10 in Week 16 against the Bears and scored one rushing touchdown on his six attempts. Gibbs had a 71.9 percent team rush share in Week 16 compared to a season-long percentage of 43 percent with Montgomery at 42 percent.

Chuba Hubbard had four rush attempts inside the 10, scoring on one of them. Hubbard ranked second in fantasy points among running backs in Week 16 behind Jonathan Taylor. Since Week 10, Hubbard ranked sixth in expected fantasy points per game (16.4), with Taylor at eighth (15.6).

Several Week 16 leaders in rush attempts inside the 10 were players with RB1-type usage besides Gus Edwards. Edwards scored two touchdowns on his three attempts inside the 10 in Week 16 against the Broncos.

Among the 42 qualified running backs, Edwards ranks 37th in rush yards over expected per attempt and No. 108 in fantasy points over expected per game (-0.7). Edwards has been one of the most inefficient rushers, but the Chargers have involved him out of necessity.

The visual below shows the season-long rushing leaders inside the 10.

Saquon Barkley continued his dominance against the Commanders, garnering three carries inside the 10. He scored one of his two rushing touchdowns inside the 10, specifically a two-yard score in the first quarter. Barkley hasn't scored within the 10 often with Jalen Hurts involved in those situations. However, Barkley ranked second in fantasy points over expected and second in rush yards over expected per attempt, showing he's one of the most efficient running backs.

A few others potentially due for touchdown regression based on their usage inside the 10 include Taylor, Najee Harris, Aaron Jones, De'Von Achane, and D'Andre Swift. Achane has the elite receiving volume, with the second-most receiving expected fantasy points per game (8.7) behind Alvin Kamara, so don't worry about him.

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Jayden Daniels targeted Jamison Crowder and Olamide Zaccheaus twice inside the 10 in Week 16 against the Eagles. Crowder caught both passes for touchdowns, with Zaccheaus scoring one inside the 10. Zaccheaus led the Commanders in receiving yards (70), targets (eight), and receiving scores (two) in Week 16. Four of Daniels' five passing touchdowns went to Zaccheaus and Crowder, showing us the resourcefulness besides the lack of weapons beyond Terry McLaurin.

Besides those two, we had elite options like A.J. Brown and Tee Higgins with two targets inside the 10 in Week 16. However, Hunter Henry and Xavier Worthy were notable ones. Worthy saw his usage rise to 12.6 expected fantasy points in Weeks 10-16 compared to 9.9 in Weeks 1-9. Unfortunately, Worthy hasn't been the first read often, averaging a 20.8 percent first-read target share in Weeks 10-16, ranking third behind Marquise Brown and Travis Kelce.

Henry leads the Patriots in expected fantasy points per game (11.5) and first-read target share (22.3 percent) in Weeks 10-16, ahead of Kayshon Boutte. The Patriots have lacked offensive weapons but Drake Maye looks toward those two in the receiving game.

Say it with me, we will not get sucked in by Dontayvion Wicks again in Week 17. Jokes aside, he had a team-high seven targets against the Saints in Week 16 and was the only Packers receiver to score a touchdown. Christian Watson left and returned to the game with a knee injury, leading to Wicks garnering a 43.3 percent route rate.

Wicks led the team with a 23.5 percent first-read target share, though Jordan Love spreads it around, including Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed at 17.6 percent in Week 16. The Packers play the Vikings in Week 17, and they may need to throw instead of using their run-heavy approach. There's a low floor for Wicks, but one might want to lean into the uncertainty in deeper formats.

The visual below shows the season-long receiving target leaders inside the 10.

Maybe regression hits in Week 17 for Trey McBride, George Pickens, and Brock Bowers in the touchdown department inside the 10-yard line. Pickens has been cleared to play in Week 17. McBride, Pickens, and Bowers are the only pass-catchers with seven or more targets inside the 10, with zero touchdowns scored in those situations.

Higher up the list in targets, some touchdowns may be coming for Higgins, David Njoku, Garrett Wilson, and Hunter Henry. Njoku is probably the most unlikely to score with the Browns turning to someone other than Jameis Winston.

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

The weekly leaders in targets on third and fourth downs include a mixture of high-end names to sleepers. Brown, Davante Adams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill had five or more targets on third or fourth downs in Week 16. When we filter by receivers with three or more targets and sort by targets per route rate, we uncover several notable sleepers, including Wicks.

Any good list has a mix of noisy and noteworthy players. We'll highlight Rome Odunze and Darnell Mooney since we already covered the others or they're mainstays in fantasy lineups. The Falcons turned to Michael Penix Jr. in Week 16 after struggles from Kirk Cousins.

Mooney garnered four of his six targets on third and fourth downs in Week 16. Two of Mooney's four targets in these situations went for first downs. Since the Falcons played with a positive game script against the Giants, they had a 58.5 percent rush rate.

The visual below shows the NFL pace data in neutral game scripts in Weeks 1-16.

Heading into Week 16, the Falcons ranked 10th in pass rate (56 percent) during neutral game scripts, showing they like to pass when the score is close. They also have the second-fastest pace (26.8 seconds per snap). Mooney was efficient on his six targets, with five receptions for 82 receiving yards, and they'll need to pass against the Commanders in Week 17.

Since Week 10, the Bears have distributed the targets between Odunze, DJ Moore, and Keenan Allen. Allen (27 percent) and Moore (25 percent) lead the team, with Odunze at 20.1 percent since Week 10. The first-read target shares favor Allen (30.9 percent) and Moore (32.1 percent) compared to Odunze's at 22.4 percent in Weeks 10-16.

When the Bears trailed, they passed at a high rate in the second half of games. In Weeks 10-16, the Bears have the sixth-highest pass rate (68 percent) in the second half, showing there should be volume for their receivers, especially late in games. That could happen again versus the Seahawks on Thursday night.

Pay attention to the leaders in targets per route rate and first-read target shares among the receiving leaders on third and fourth downs in Weeks 1-16.

The players to monitor include Josh Downs, St. Brown, Higgins, Cooper Kupp, Pickens, Wan'Dale Robinson, Courtland Sutton, and others with higher target rates and high rates of first-read target shares. Meanwhile, there's flukiness with Wicks, Adonai Mitchell, and Marvin Mims Jr. based on their usage.

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