High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 13)

November 27, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 13 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities" for Week 13 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're nearly a few weeks away before the fantasy football playoffs begin, depending on if leagues go through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value opportunities. 

Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Against one of the better defenses in the league, Nick Chubb had five carries inside the 10, scoring two touchdowns. Chubb was inefficient with 20 carries for 59 yards in a Thursday night matchup involving tons of snow, but he delivered with two rushing scores. For context, Chubb had five carries inside the 10 before Week 12 in his previous five games in 2024.

The visual below shows the Week 12 rushing attempt leaders inside the 10-yard line.

Jerome Ford looks like the priority backup for Chubb. However, the Browns have struggled with run blocking, with the seventh-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt heading into Week 12. Aaron Jones had seven carries inside the 10 in Week 12, accounting for one-third of his season-long total.

Jones scored on one of his seven carries inside the 10, making it his second touchdown within the 10-yard line. He ranks fourth in carries inside the 10, with potential touchdown regression in his favor because the rushers with more rush attempts scored seven or more times in 2024.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders in rush attempts inside the 10.

Speaking of efficient rushers via touchdowns, Josh Jacobs scored on his three carries inside the 10, boosting his season-long attempts (20) and touchdowns (six). Though the Packers played with a positive game script, mainly in the second half against the 49ers without Brock Purdy, the passing and receiving game haven't been reliable.

That's evident in the Packers ranking 31st in pass rate in neutral game scripts in Weeks 8-12, tied with the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Packers have the highest rush rate in neutral game scripts, with the 28th-ranked pace of play, meaning they've been one of the slower-paced teams over the past several weeks (Weeks 8-12). That bodes well for Jacobs but leads to frustration for the pass-catchers.

We're used to seeing David Montgomery lead the team in carries within the 10. However, Jahmyr Gibbs led the team with three rush attempts inside the 10, scoring two touchdowns. For context, Montgomery scored a touchdown on his lone carry within the 10 in Week 12. On the season, Montgomery leads the league in carries inside the 10 at 26, with Gibbs at 14.

Montgomery left the game with a shoulder injury, though he hopes to return for the Thursday game on Thanksgiving. Heading into Week 12, the Bears run defense allowed the second-highest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Meanwhile, the Lions ranked third in adjusted yards before contact per attempt on offense. That suggests the Lions should smash the Bears via the ground game in Week 13, potentially a repeat like Week 12 or previous weeks.

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

The rushers headlined Week 12 inside the 10, with only three pass-catchers having two or more targets within the 10-yard line. Those three include Jonnu Smith, David Moore, and Jordan Addison, who all scored touchdowns inside the 10 in Week 12. Interestingly, Smith ranked 13th in targets inside the 10, with six, scoring on half of those opportunities throughout the season.

The visual below shows the receiving leaders inside the 10-yard line in 2024.

Smith trails Tyreek Hill with seven targets inside the 10, but Hill only scored two touchdowns. Among receivers with seven or more targets inside the 10-yard line, Hill, Diontae Johnson, Travis Kelce, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, George Pickens, and Davante Adams scored two or fewer touchdowns.

Unfortunately, Johnson became irrelevant with the Ravens. However, Smith-Njigba has seen his stock rise with and without DK Metcalf healthy. Since Week 8, Smith-Njigba ranks eighth in expected fantasy points per game behind Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Kupp, Courtland Sutton, Puka Nacua, and Malik Nabers.

The visual below shows the Seahawks' receiving advanced stat leaders in Weeks 8-12.

Smith-Njigba and Metcalf have nearly identical first-read target shares since Week 8, with Metcalf at 32.4 percent (No. 19) and Smith-Njigba at 34.3 percent (No. 9). Though it's a small sample, Smith-Njigba earned more targets and higher value opportunities while being more efficient in recent weeks.

Moving to the Steelers' top receiver, Pickens ranked fifth in first-read target share (37.7 percent) since Week 8, yet 22nd in expected fantasy points per game (14.6). While there could be touchdown regression in Pickens' favor based on his targets inside the 10, he has been efficient, with 2.44 yards per route run (No. 34) among 243 qualified receivers and tight ends with a minimum of 10 routes in Weeks 8-12.

The Steelers only have one or two concerning receiver matchups for the rest of the season, including the Eagles in Week 15 and Chiefs in Week 17, so continue to project Pickens as a weekly high-end WR2.

The visual below shows the Jets' receiving advanced stat leaders in Weeks 8-12.

Adams and Garrett Wilson have garnered the target volume over the past few weeks. In Weeks 8-12, Adams ranks 13th in expected fantasy points and Wilson at No. 27. For context, Adams averaged 2.05 yards per route run and Wilson at 2.10 in Weeks 8-12. Since Week 8, the Jets rank 10th in neutral game script pass rate (57 percent), tying them with the Seahawks and Chiefs. The Jets have a favorable schedule from Week 13 and beyond, but it's a roller-coaster ride with this offense.

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

The Bears offense has been turning heads over the past two weeks since they fired Shane Waldron. In Week 12, Keenan Allen garnered a weekly high of seven targets on third and fourth downs. Unfortunately, Allen's third- and fourth-down targets translated into an efficient 1.94 yards per route run.

The visual below shows the receiving target leaders on third and fourth downs in Week 12.

Over the past two weeks with Thomas Brown as the offensive coordinator, Allen ranks eighth in expected fantasy points (19.8) with Rome Odunze at 18.6 (No. 10). Allen has been underperforming his expected fantasy points by over four points (15.9) while Odunze averaged 10.7 PPR/G in Weeks 11-12, nearly an eight-point difference from the expected numbers.

The visual below shows the receiving advanced stat leaders sorted by expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 8-12, highlighting Sutton.

Sutton and the Broncos passing offense have been performing well. In Weeks 8-12, Sutton ranks fifth in expected fantasy points, 22nd in first-read target share, and 14th in yards per route run among receivers and tight ends with 10 routes. For context, Devaughn Vele is the Broncos receiver with the next-highest first-read target share at 17.4 percent.

Marvin Harrison Jr. had four of his six targets on third and fourth downs. Unfortunately, the Cardinals pass-catchers disappointed outside of Trey McBride's whopping 15 targets, 12 receptions, and 133 receiving yards. McBride ranks 25th in expected fantasy points in Weeks 8-12 among all receivers and tight ends with 10 routes.

The visual below shows the Cardinals' receiving advanced stat leaders in Weeks 8-12.

Meanwhile, Harrison ranks 62nd in expected fantasy points in Weeks 8-12. However, the positive note involves Harrison's first-read target share at 30.3 percent (No. 25) compared to McBride at 37.9 percent (No. 3) since Week 8. Harrison has been one of the worst draft-day values for fantasy football, but be patient with him in keeper or dynasty formats.

Addison has seen his stock rise over the past two weeks. In Weeks 1-10, Addison had a 17 percent target rate, 1.55 yards per route run, a 19.9 percent first-read target share, and 9.4 expected fantasy points per game.

However, in Weeks 11-12, Addison's targets per route run rate jumped to 28 percent, with a more efficient 3.72 yards per route run. Unsurprisingly, Addison garnered a 30 percent first-read target share and 16.1 expected fantasy points per game (No. 19) in Weeks 11-12.

Addison's improvements relate to the usage over the past two weeks. Addison swapped air yard shares and target rates with Jefferson, including more efficient production yards per route run and fantasy points in Weeks 11-12.

This seems like two outlier weeks, though we know it's within Addison's range of outcomes to garner more targets and produce efficiently based on his talent. If Addison's usage remains similar to Jefferson's, he upgrades to a high-end WR2 like Josh Downs in previous weeks with spike-week outcomes.

The visual below shows the season-long target leaders on third and fourth downs.

Among the pass-catchers with the highest target shares on third and fourth downs, most of the players remain high-end options. A few players trending in opposite directions include Quentin Johnston, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Ladd McConkey.

The theme with Johnston has been the production when wide open, ranking 13th in yards per route run, seventh in yards per target over expected, and fourth in fantasy points per route run (0.86). However, Johnston's expected fantasy points per route run (0.38) against wide-open coverage suggests the efficiency might not be sustainable.

The visual below shows the receiving advanced stat leaders against open or wide-open coverage, sorted by yards per target over expected.

Meanwhile, Johnston has been awful against coverage when he's not open. That's evident in Johnston's yards per route run ranking 154th, yards per target over expected at No. 202, and 88th-ranked expected fantasy points per route.

Interestingly, Justin Herbert has been targeting McConkey and Johnston at similar rates on his first reads while producing equivalent first-down rates. Johnston's main issue is the volume because there's a ton of volatility in a receiver compiling 79 percent of his production when open or wide open.

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