High-Value Touches and Opportunities - Fantasy Football Underperformers, Overperformers (Week 10)

November 6, 2024

Corbin analyzes fantasy football high-value rushing and receiving opportunities to find fantasy football sleepers and breakouts heading into Week 10 of 2024.

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my weekly series, "High-Value Touches and Opportunities," for Week 10 of the 2024 fantasy football season. We're over halfway through the fantasy football season, depending on if leagues go through Week 17 or 18. It's crunch time, and we'll want to pay attention to the news, noise, and trends, especially in the high-value opportunities. 

Touchdowns can be fluky, but finding which players tend to garner the high-value touches and opportunities can lead to scoring chances. We'll look at the high-value touches and opportunities each week to identify potential over and underperformers. We'll want to monitor the high-value rushing opportunities for rushers and which pass-catchers garner targets close to the goal line. We want to chase players based on volume, efficiency, and high-value opportunities as a rusher and receiver. Teams lean on the run when they inch closer to the goal line, and a player's high-value opportunities hold weight. The context matters since sometimes there's noise when a pass-catcher garners targets inside the 10-yard line but wasn't involved much on first reads or other situations. 

We'll focus on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends who garner high-value opportunities as rushers and receivers. To define high-value, they're the rushing and receiving opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Reach out to me on X if you have any questions or thoughts.  

High-Value Rushing Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Joe Mixon continues to eat, with his fourth game with 20+ carries and fifth with over 100 rushing yards. He had two carries inside the 10-yard line, scoring on one.

Mixon accounts for 77.8 percent of the team's rush attempts inside the five, ranking fifth among running backs with five or more carries. On the season, Mixon ranks fourth in expected fantasy points, with the eighth-best fantasy points over expected per game (FPOE/G).

That indicates Mixon boasts a high-end RB1 workload with a career-best in the efficiency metrics (FPOE/G), which isn't usual for a running back in their eighth season. It's the year of the running backs changing teams and thriving in a new ecosystem.

Speaking of a former Bengals' running back, Chase Brown handled six carries inside the 10, scoring on zero. For context, Brown had three carries inside the 10 before Week 9, with Zack Moss handling 11.

The visual below shows the Week 9 leaders in rush attempts inside the 10.

Brown led all running backs in expected fantasy points at 27.9, ahead of Alvin Kamara (25.6), Kyren Williams (22.5), and Tony Pollard (21.7) in Week 9. That shows the Bengals trusted Brown with an elite workload, plus the positive game script in their favor. With news about Moss being out for the regular season, Brown's stock skyrockets to a borderline RB1.

However, Brown has a rib injury that needs to be monitored because it might cause him to miss a week or two. Furthermore, the Bengals acquired Khalil Herbert via trade at the deadline. Herbert flashed high rush yards over expected numbers in the past, but it's mostly insurance with Moss out. 

The Lions and Packers game in Week 9, with the rain and poor conditions, projected like a game where David Montgomery would be leaned on. Montgomery handled five carries inside the 10, scoring on zero while besting Jahmyr Gibbs in rush share (53.1 percent vs. 34.4 percent). However, Gibbs scored the Lions' lone rushing touchdown, a 15-yard run.

The visual below shows the season-long leaders in rush attempts inside the 10.

Montgomery tied for the league lead with Williams, garnering 21 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line. Meanwhile, Gibbs has nine carries inside the 10 on the season. The Lions have a fun offense to invest in for fantasy purposes, and this backfield duo should continue to share work and thrive.

The Titans' backfield gave us a scare, with Tyjae Spears ruled out and Pollard not practicing all week. Many, including myself, rushed to scoop up Julius Chestnut off waivers in case Pollard missed Week 9 due to the juicy matchup.

Pollard had three of his 28 carries inside the 10-yard line, yet didn't score on any. He rushed for 128 yards and caught all three targets for 26 receiving yards, leading to a season-high for rushing yardage.

Chuba Hubbard had three carries inside the 10, scoring one touchdown at the one-yard line, with 12 rush attempts within the 10 on the season. Hubbard took advantage of the matchup and scored the game-winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter to put the Panthers up one against the Saints.

The Panthers' low play volume of 50 plays limited Hubbard's upside, especially considering quarterback woes with Bryce Young. That's 10 plays below the Panthers' season-long average of 60. If there's a run-funnel defense to attack, the Saints fit the mold, allowing the most adjusted yards before contact before Week 9.

From Weeks 5-8, the Saints allowed the fourth-most adjusted yards before contact while allowing the ninth-worst pass rate over expected, as seen below.

Without Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler and Jayden Daniels had three carries within the 10-yard line in Week 9. However, you probably couldn't guess which running back had the most rush attempts inside the 10 in Week 9 for the Commanders.

It was Chris Rodriguez Jr., who had four carries inside the 10. That means the Commanders have 10 team carries inside the 10-yard line in one game, which feels like a rarity. 

Ekeler scored one touchdown on his three rush attempts, while Daniels had negative two yards and no touchdown. For context, Ekeler has seven rush attempts within the 10, with Daniels at 11, while Robinson Jr. ranks fifth with 15 carries on the season.

As a team, the Commanders have been one of the best rushing offenses, ranking first in EPA per attempt ahead of the Lions, Ravens, Eagles, and Bills to round out the top five.

High-Value Receiving Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line

Since this is a short list of weekly target leaders inside the 10-yard line, we'll focus on Hunter Henry, Jalen Tolbert, and Zay Flowers. Ja'Marr Chase is an elite option, while Davis Allen and Lil'Jordan Humphrey feel fairly noisy.

Flowers totaled five targets inside the 10-yard line on the season, two of which came in Week 9. He posted his fourth 100-yard game over the past five in Week 9 against the Broncos.

From Weeks 5-9, Flowers ranks 10th in target share (27.2 percent), 19th in air yards share (33.8 percent), 12th in yards per route run (3.49), and 17th in expected fantasy points per game (15.1).

Flowers scored 3.5 fantasy points over expected in Weeks 5-9, showing he can produce efficiently. He doesn't need targets inside the 10-yard line to be productive because he garners targets downfield (11.6 aDOT) and tons of yards after the catch (7.72 YAC/Rec).

Regarding the Cowboys, the passing offense flowed through CeeDee Lamb (12) and Jake Ferguson (10), soaking up 44 percent of the team's targets in Week 9 against the Falcons. Tolbert tied with Rico Dowdle with six targets, while Tolbert had two within the 10-yard line. Cooper Rush connected with Tolbert for a four-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter, with the Cowboys down 14 points.

The visual below shows the Cowboys receiving leaders in Weeks 5-9 sorted by opportunity.

Though it was a garbage-time touchdown, there's a chance for a volume uptick for Tolbert if Lamb's shoulder injury causes him to miss time. However, Dak Prescott reportedly will miss a few weeks due to his hamstring injury, leading to an automatic downgrade for the pass catchers.

Before Week 9, the Cowboys ranked 22nd in EPA per pass attempt, and unfortunately, Rush isn't entering a favorable offensive ecosystem like the Vikings, Lions, Bengals, or Buccaneers from a passing standpoint.

Henry soaked up two targets inside the 10-yard line, with eight total in Week 8. He caught seven of his eight targets for 56 scoreless yards. In Weeks 7-9, Henry ranks sixth in expected fantasy points per game (13.2) with a 29.4 percent first-read target share (No. 4) among the tight end position.

That's much better than the other Patriots' pass catchers, with Kendrick Bourne at 16.2 percent, plus DeMario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte at 14.7 percent in first-read target share. Henry has been the top pass catcher for Drake Maye on a passing offense that ranks in the bottom five EPA per pass attempt, making him a volume-based option.

We'll close out with the season-long leaders in targets inside the 10-yard line.

George Pickens might be due for regression with seven targets inside the 10, all being end zone opportunities with zero touchdowns. There might be touchdown regression for Diontae Johnson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Nico Collins among receivers with five targets inside the 10.

Third- and Fourth-Down Opportunities

It's a solid list of fantasy contributors among the target leaders on third and fourth downs in Week 9. However, the most surprising player involves Keenan Allen (seven), with five players garnering four targets on third and fourth down. Allen saw his second game with 10 or more targets in the season, but it was another inefficient performance, partly due to Caleb Williams's struggle.

The visual below shows the Week 9 leaders in targets on third and fourth downs.

Williams ranked 25th in adjusted yards per attempt (3.66) and 22nd in completion rate over expected at -3.3 percent (No. 22) in Week 9. That's not far from his season-long averages, evidenced by his 4.82 adjusted yards per attempt and -0.6 percent completion rate over expected. Besides D'Andre Swift and DJ Moore, the rest of the Bears' offensive players have been unreliable.

The Bears' upcoming schedule includes neutral games against the Patriots, Packers, Vikings, Lions, and 49ers over the next five weeks. We could envision a scenario where the Bears will trail against all teams, including the Patriots, potentially meaning more passing volume for the Bears. However, it's hard to have confidence in their consistency.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a breakout game in Week 9 against the Rams. Smith-Njigba garnered the second-most targets (13) in his career, with four coming on third and fourth downs. He posted a career-best receiving yardage total of 180 with two touchdowns compared to five in 25 previous games.

Besides DK Metcalf injured for the second straight game, Smith-Njigba's usage changed in volume (32.8 percent target share) and air yards (63.6 percent) in Weeks 8-9. That's much different than his numbers in Weeks 1-7, with a 20.4 percent target share and 20.6 percent air yards share.

Furthermore, he ranked third in expected fantasy points per game at 21.2. He produced efficiently and scored nearly four more points in PPR (25) than expected in Weeks 8-9. As the target and air yards share indicates, Smith-Njigba's expected fantasy points boomed from Weeks 1-7.

That's evident in Smith-Njigba ranking 18th in expected fantasy points (14.6), underperforming his actual fantasy points (10.9 PPR) in Weeks 1-7. Hopefully, this isn't a fluky breakout game for a talented receiver like Smith-Njigba because he deserves more opportunities when Metcalf returns.

Jakobi Meyers had four targets or 50 percent of the team's share on third and fourth downs in Week 9. Meyers led the Raiders in targets, receptions, and receiving yards against the Bengals, with Gardner Minshew and Desmond Ridder both playing.

It's ugly to target a Raiders player besides Brock Bowers. However, Meyers rocked the second-highest first-read target share at 47.8 percent in Week 9 behind Darnell Mooney (52.9 percent). He'll see an upgraded role for the Raiders, though they have their bye in Week 10, and then face the Dolphins, Broncos, and Chiefs coming out of their bye week, meaning it won't be easy.

Quentin Johnston caught three of his four targets on third and fourth downs for 113 receiving yards and his 66-yard touchdown. For context, Johnston saw five targets and made one other reception for five yards against the Browns in Week 9.

Before Week 9, the #Browns played the 3rd-highest rate of man coverage. #BoltUp Quentin Johnston vs. man coverage in Weeks 1-8 (min. 10 routes) per @FantasyPtsData:
🤔32% targets per route run (No. 21)
🥶0.72 yards per route run (No. 138)
🤢.200 Average Separation Score (No.… pic.twitter.com/NBIqsL4rb3

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 4, 2024

The Browns have been playing the third-highest rate of man coverage, which doesn't bode well for Johnston. That's evident in him averaging 32 percent targets per route run, 0.72 yards per route, and a -0.200 Average Separation Score, ranking 161st out of 181 qualified receivers versus man coverage.

Johnston seems to have several long touchdowns on blown coverages or being wide open, but it doesn't seem to be related to his ability to separate. One way to beat Cover 1, which the Browns run a ton, involves deep shots, where Justin Herbert and Johnston connected in Week 9, so maybe it's slightly more believable. 

The Chargers have been passing at the ninth-highest rate (61 percent) in neutral game scripts, though they have the fourth-slowest pace of play (30.5 seconds per snap) in Weeks 5-9.

Unfortunately, the raw volume hasn't been there for Johnston, with a season-high six targets in Week 2 against the Panthers. We have some positive signs in Johnston's favor, but there will be natural ups and downs instead of a linear progression for more boom games like Week 9.

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