High-Powered Offenses: Players to Target in Week 12 Lineups Including Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Quentin Johnston, Austin Ekeler, Will Dissly, More

November 21, 2024

Fantasy football lineup targets and sleepers for Week 12 of 2024. Josh looks at high-powered offenses to target, and the top fantasy lineup picks from each, including Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Quentin Johnston, Austin Ekeler, Will Dissly, and more.

Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to our column High-Powered Offenses for Week 12 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Below, you’ll find a recap of the last week's offenses to target, a sneak peek of the offenses to target, a breakdown of the methodology, a snapshot of each metric in a data table, a few key takeaways, and the list of offenses and players to target in Week 12.

This article will identify offenses that are set up for a huge week and which players among them are great targets. The teams and players highlighted will change weekly based on the data trends, their current matchup, situational factors, and key injuries. The goal is not to repeat offenses every week, selecting new teams for you to target. It's also worth noting that six teams are on their bye, including the Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New Orleans Saints, reducing the options available.

The foundation for determining which offenses to target will be based on a data-driven methodology focused on NFL scoring. You can find more details on that in the methodology section. On top of the number of points scored, we’ll also be incorporating player-level information within the offense and analyzing the opposing defense to generate a list of the players you want to rely on each week. Let’s dig in!

Last Week's Offensive Recap

A shoutout to Stathead, Next Gen Stats, Fantasy Points, and DraftKings for the information required to write this article. Week 11 started with a clunker, especially the first half of Thursday Night Football. The Eagles and Commanders combined for 43 points, but it was a slow grind. The rest of the week was much better with thrilling finishes and more points scored. 

Five signal-callers threw for 300 yards and six tossed at least three touchdowns, including three who had four. There were also three more who threw 295, so we almost had eight total. The yard totals were lower for tailbacks with just two players running for 100 yards, yet five had multiple rushing touchdowns.

Seven teams scored 30 points and only five under 16, it was a better week overall.

• Buffalo Bills - 30 points scored (7th)
• Los Angeles Rams - 28 points scored (tied for 8th)
• Minnesota Vikings - 23 points scored (13th)
• Kansas City Chiefs - 21 points scored (15th)
• Green Bay Packers - 20 points scored (18th)

Our selections weren't as elite as last week, but we were consistent. All five picks scored at least 20 points and two were in the top 10. Unfortunately, none were in the top five. The Bills overcame the Chiefs, but it wasn't as high-flying as we hoped. The Rams did their part with 28 points, but the Packers and Vikings struggled more than expected.

For the second consecutive week, there was only one special teams or defensive touchdown. It came from Houston in the final game of the week. It's an unusual occurrence, but it does mean none of the offenses we chose were bolstered. We'll look to maintain our consistency in Week 12 but increase our top-end outcomes.

Week 12 Offenses to Target

• • Detroit Lions
  • Washington Commanders
  • Houston Texans
  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Los Angeles Chargers

Methodology

In terms of how it works, each week we’ll analyze four different metrics and their impact on the average number of points teams scored, including location (home, away), pace -- offensive plays per game (above average, average, below average), offensive touchdowns per game (above average, average, below average), and offensive yards per game (above average, average, below average).

We’ll calculate the average number of points scored for all 11 categories, identifying trends and patterns to provide further insight into scoring output. We’ll track the cumulative average points scored as the season progresses, creating a larger sample size with more accurate data. 

Below, you’ll find a breakdown of each of the four metrics, explaining what they are and how the subcategories were created.

Metric No. 1 - Location

NFL teams travel across the country and abroad, battling one another yearly. However, every team is allotted eight home games one year and nine the next, playing their remaining games on the road. 

This metric is divided into two categories: home and road. Occasionally, teams play on a neutral site outside America, including England, Mexico, Brazil, and Germany. In those situations, whoever the NFL identifies as the host team will be considered the home team, while the visiting team will be viewed as the road team.

The home team expects to have the advantage and score more points because it does not need to travel and it has the comfort of its normal amenities and routine, along with the familiarity of its stadium and the crowd support.

Metric No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

The pace of play represents how fast a team runs its offense. It’s a statistic that can be measured in several ways, but for this article, we will focus on the number of offensive plays per game a team runs, which includes passing attempts, rushing attempts, and sacks taken. 

This metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average. To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023, 2022, and 2021, to find the average number of plays for all 32 teams each year, creating a total of 96 team seasons. The average number of plays from that sample is 63.14.

We then expanded that number to create a range of 61 to 65 offensive plays per game, which we defined as the range for “average.” Thus, anything greater than 65.0 would be “above average,” and anything less than 61.0 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's average offensive plays per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their plays per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes a team has a large lead and is attempting to run out the clock, causing it to play slower, but in general, the expectation is that teams that run more offensive plays will have more scoring opportunities and thus score more points.

Metric No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Touchdowns are one of the statistics with the highest variance at a player level, team level, and throughout a season for a particular franchise. However, as a league, the number is very consistent, especially when focusing on offensive touchdowns, which include passing and rushing.

This would exclude any touchdowns scored by a team’s defense or during special teams plays, such as kicking and punting. We've excluded these scoring plays because they are harder to predict and occur less frequently than offensive touchdowns.

This metric is also divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

To find the average, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, 2022 where teams scored an average of 2.3 touchdowns per game, and 2021 where teams scored an average of 2.4 touchdowns per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which was 2.3. 

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 2.2 to 2.4, which we defined as the “average.” Anything greater than 2.4 is defined as “above average,” and less than 2.2 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive touchdowns per game will be placed in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams that week.

Their offensive touchdowns per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger. 

The expectation is teams that score more offensive touchdowns will score more points. We’ll be particularly curious about the gap in points scored between the three subcategories, not just a higher number.

Metric No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

In addition to touchdowns, yards are another key measurement of offensive output. Because the range of numbers for yards is much wider, this statistic is more consistent among players and teams than touchdowns. Fortunately, it's consistent for the NFL as a whole as well. Similar to touchdowns, we’ll be incorporating only offensive output for the same reasons outlined above. 

Once again, this metric is divided into three categories: above average, average, and below average.

As with the previous two metrics, we went back three seasons, including 2023 where teams had an average of 331.6 yards per game, 2022 where teams had an average of 340.1 yards per game, and 2021 where teams had an average of 333.6 yards per game. We then took the average of those three seasons, which is 335.1.

Finally, we expanded that number to create a range of 320 to 350, which we defined as the “average,” with anything greater than 350 defined as “above average,” and less than 320 would be “below average.” 

Every week, each team's offensive yards per game will be used to place it in one of the three ranges to identify the average points per game in that range for NFL teams on that week.

Their offensive yards per game will be recalculated based on their cumulative total for the season each week to provide a cumulative average number of points scored for the three categories. The further into the season we get, the more accurate this will be because the sample size will be larger.

Sometimes, a team will begin a drive with a great field position because of its defense or special teams unit, which decreases the number of yards required to score a touchdown or kick a field goal. But, in general, the expectation is teams that produce more yards on offense will score more points.

Additional Measures

These four metrics above will set the foundation for identifying offenses to target based on the different thresholds.

We’ll incorporate additional inputs such as the team’s record (wins, losses, and ties), which teams are favored to win by the betting market, metrics like pre-snap motion rate and pass rate over expectation, and changes in personnel or coaching staff to help hone in on the high-powered offenses to target.

We’ll also go beyond the offensive perspective to factor in the opposing defense and other variables that could impact the offensive output, such as weather.

Data Tables

Data Table No. 1 - Location

Data Table No. 2 - Pace (Offensive Plays Per Game)

Data Table No. 3 - Offensive Touchdowns Per Game

Data Table No. 4 - Offensive Yards Per Game

Data Takeaways

The home teams crushed it in Week 11. The Chargers, Saints, Dolphins, Bills, Lions, and Broncos scored 30 points, including 52 from Detroit. Meanwhile, only the Texans hit that mark on the road. That offensive output impacted the season-long data, increasing the gap to 1.41, the largest since Week 5.

Looking ahead to Week 12, powerhouses like the Rams, Chargers, Dolphins, and Texans are home while the Lions, Eagles, and Ravens travel. We could see a more evenly distributed outcome.

There was a mild change in the "above average" metrics for offensive touchdowns and yards, but it was minimal. The total points scored in the NFL was higher in Week 11, causing an uptick in nine of the 11 categories. The only two to drop were the average for the road teams and the "below average" category in offensive touchdowns. The bad get worse is the takeaway from that one.

The number of plays run was lower with only seven teams finishing with 70 or more plays compared to nine last week and eight teams finishing with fewer than 60 offensive plays compared to seven last week. Plus, that's with two additional teams on their bye. Fortunately, the seven teams that ran at least 70 plays included Cincinnati, Detroit, and Buffalo, so that was nice to see. However, New England, Chicago, and Cleveland were in there too.

Week 12 Offenses and Players to Target

Offense No. 1 - Detroit Lions

Detroit elected to inflict pain on the Jaguars and their poor fans, hammering them 52-6. They never took their foot off the gas, seemingly sending a message to the rest of the NFL. A message that you can bet was received. The incredible part is that they still threw the ball in the fourth quarter despite a 36-point lead.

To no one's surprise, they now lead the league in points per game (33.6) and offensive touchdowns per game (4) while sitting third in offensive yards with 394.7. Juggernaut is the appropriate term. They're crushing the metric thresholds.

They travel to Indianapolis this week, where they have a dome, setting this offense up for another beatdown. The spread is only 7.5 against the Colts, but the over/under is 50.5, tied for second highest.

The obvious: Amon-Ra St. Brown was the beneficiary of them, passing the ball late in the game by catching another touchdown to extend his streak to eight outings. Meanwhile, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have proven that a top 10 tandem of tailbacks can exist in fantasy football. We haven't seen the likes of this since Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram in New Orleans.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Jared Goff fired back at the nay-sayers on the field with 412 yards and four touchdowns. He's firmly among the top 10 QBs.

Player No. 2 - Sam LaPorta opened the week with a full practice signaling a return to action this week. He hasn't been nearly as impressive as last season, but he's in contention as a streamer given the potency of their offense.

Played No. 3 - Jameson Williams is the epitome of boom-bust. His floor is close to zero, but he can also win you a week. It's the right profile for a flex spot.

Offense No. 2 - Washington Commanders

Washington's fairytale season has hit a few bumps lately with losses to Pittsburgh and Philly in back-to-back weeks. It doesn't take away from what they've accomplished and their progress, but it's a harsh reality check regarding where they are in the pecking order. They're still on track for the playoffs with an outside shot at the division.

Despite the two losses, they're fourth in points per game at 28, seventh in offensive touchdowns at 2.82, and sixth in offensive yards at 366.73, averaging 62.45 plays per week. They're well above the thresholds for touchdowns and yards with the 11th most plays.

Fortunately for them, their opponent this week is the reeling Cowboys. Not only is Washington at home, but this version of Dallas will be lucky to win more than two games before the year ends. The Commanders are set up for a bounce-back performance.

The obvious: Jayden Daniels was an unstoppable force for several weeks before regressing the past couple. His rushing yards per game dropped from 53 over the first eight weeks to just 19 the past three, but Dallas won't be able to contain him. He's back in the top five this week.

Brian Robinson Jr. was questionable to play in Week 11, but he suited up and found the end zone. The extra rest positions him to get healthy and take back his job as the starter.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Austin Ekeler continues to soak up targets. He had a 28% target share against the Eagles on Thursday night. He's a great flex option with top-20 upside.

Player No. 2 - Terry McLaurin caught one pass on two targets. Daniels wasn't comfortable, resulting in checkdowns to the backs and tight ends. That should change this week, pushing McLaurin back into the top 24.

Player No. 3 - Zach Ertz is a better target in matchups where they're an underdog because he needs heavy volume. He's a little riskier this week but still offers a floor as a streamer.

Offense No. 3 - Houston Texans

Unsurprisingly, the Texans thrashed Dallas 34-10. What was concerning was the ineptitude of their passing attack. The final numbers were alright, but they looked out of sync. That said, another week for their superstar wideout to get healthy should help. Plus, their running game was elite.

Their 23.45 points per game are 14th, their 2.27 offensive touchdowns are 16th, their 342.91 offensive yards are 14th, and their 65.73 plays are second. They're just outside the thresholds for touchdowns and yards but that could improve down the stretch.

Last week, we targeted the Tennessee defense with Minnesota. It wasn't a smash selection, but that had more to do with the Vikings struggling to finish drives. Houston should have no issue racking up points against a team allowing 26.3 per game.

The obvious: Joe Mixon is arguably the best fantasy back in football. The team is extremely reliant on him, and he keeps delivering. He's rushed the ball at least 20 times each of the past five outings to go along with 17 targets during that stretch. He's a legit workhorse on a run-centric offense.

Nico Collins is the other stud in their offense. Although he underperformed in his return to action, he gets somewhat of a pass because they limited his snaps, and he had a huge touchdown called back.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Tank Dell matched Collins's receiving production, but that's not the barometer to measure him against. He's been mostly disappointing this season, so he lands in this section as a flex receiver who can make big plays.

Player No. 2 - C.J. Stroud has had a similar issue. He's struggled to find the end zone largely because of Mixon's dominance. He's a streamer with a low floor.

Offense No. 4 - Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has quietly emerged as a playoff squad with the potential to make a run. Everyone was excited for their offense to come together, which took some time, but they were clicking. The bigger surprise is how well the defense has played. Over their past three outings, they've limited their opponents to 14 points per game, ranking second to only Minnesota. That complementary football is serving them well.

Speaking of their offense. After some early season struggles, they've hit their stride. They rank 13th in points per game with 23.8, tied for 11th in offensive touchdowns at 2.4, and 12th in offensive yards at 346.4. They're creeping towards the thresholds we're looking for. Not to mention, they've been a lot better since Week 8.

This week they travel to Seattle for a potential shootout. The over/under is 47.5 and Seattle is allowing 23.8 points per game (21st), 4.8 yards per rush attempt (25th), and 6.5 yards per pass attempt (15th). It's a great spot for the Cardinals.

The obvious: James Conner has defied the odds by staying healthy through 11 weeks. He's never played a full season in his career so start him while you can. Trey McBride has done everything but find the end zone. He's scored on the ground and a fumble recovery but has yet to score as a receiver. That's bound to change as soon as this week. Kyler Murray finally looks in command. He's also adding to his value on the ground with 371 yards and four touchdowns.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Marvin Harrison Jr. has flashed superstar upside but has struggled with consistency. He's been someone you're glad you started in Weeks 2, 3, 4, 8, and 10, but also disappointed you in Weeks 1, 5, 6, 7, and 9. His hit rate is exactly 50%. With bye weeks and injuries, he's probably in your lineup, but be aware of his volatility.

Offense No. 5 - Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles was part of a thrilling Sunday Night Football contest against the Bengals. The Chargers have been building momentum and a winning culture. It took some time for the offense to find their form, which makes sense considering Justin Herbert entered the year with a foot injury. However, in their last three games, they've averaged 29.3 points per game, ranking seventh in that stretch. They also won all of them.

If you extend that to include their Week 8 win over the Saints, they've scored 27.75 points, 3.25 offensive touchdowns, and 366 yards. Those numbers would clear the thresholds and land them in the top 10.

Adding to their appeal is their matchup with the Ravens this week. Baltimore's defense is stout against the run but vulnerable against the pass. They rank fourth-worst in passing touchdowns allowed at 2.0 per week and dead last in passing yards allowed at 284.5 per week. Fire up your Chargers.

The obvious: J.K. Dobbins is ceding work to Gus Edwards and Hassan Haskins, but his scoring opportunities for a powerful offense make him a solid top-24 back. Ladd McConkey was drafted to be their No. 1 wideout. Through 11 weeks, he has earned that title. He's coming off another big week with six grabs for 123 yards, pushing him into the top 24.

Players to target:

Player No. 1 - Justin Herbert has made his case to join the obvious names with four straight finishes inside the top 12, including the QB8 last week. He belongs there again.

Player No. 2 - While McConkey tends to earn more volume, Quentin Johnston has a knack for scoring touchdowns. He's found the end zone in five of his eight outings this season. It's risky to depend on touchdowns but with 51-point over/under, it's worth taking the shot.

Player No. 3 - Will Dissly was off the radar to start the year, but he's taken over the starting role, which has paid off. Since Week 6, he's averaged 4.8 receptions for 48.2 yards on 6.6 targets. That's good enough to be a streamer as a tight end.

Hopefully, you found this article helpful as you prepare for Week 12. Thanks for reading. We’ll be back next week with more offenses and players to target.

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