Flex Heroes and Zeroes - Week 4 Fantasy Football Picks

September 29, 2018

RotoBaller editor Pierre Camus provides his favorite sleeper picks at QB, RB, WR, and TE, as well as star players to fade for Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season for fantasy football lineup prep.

Sometimes all it takes is one. One player can turn things around for an entire team. We saw it with Baker Mayfield in the second half on Thursday night as he led them to their first win in forever. We've seen it with the loss of Khalil Mack in Oakland as they struggle to an 0-3 start while the Bears lead the league in sacks and possess a dominant defense. Your fantasy team is no different.

We've all got a first-round pick we count on to lead the way and a QB that can throw for 4,000 yards by season's end. That's not the difference between winning and losing. It almost always comes down to that one unexpected player you flex or put in as an injury/bye week replacement that scores 30 points out of nowhere to save the day. Conversely, it could be that player your opponent started out of nowhere that you curse for his good fortune or the guy on your bench that would have led you to victory if only you've rolled the dice. That's why these under-the-radar plays are so important. Nobody needs to tell you to start Aaron Rodgers, Ezekiel Elliott or John Brown (that's right, start him every week). I'm here to try to uncover those hidden gems that could pay off and win you a week without striking fool's gold on others and I'm digging deeper than ever this time.

Now, here are my fantasy flex-spot "heroes" and "zeroes" at each position for Week 4 of the NFL season. These are non-obvious players that I believe will perform unexpectedly well or bigger names that might fare poorly relative to expectations in this week's matchups. To see how our staff feels about all the players you might possibly care about, look no further than our very own RotoBaller consensus weekly rankings.

Week 4 Lineup Heroes

QUARTERBACK

Case Keenum, Denver Broncos

I nearly used Keenum as my QB Hero in Week 2, but instead opted for Andrew Luck. That didn't turn out so great but Keenum would have been far worse so hooray for minor victories! After a stellar first game where he threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns, Keenum hasn't found the end zone since. He has found opposing defenders open, however, having been intercepted in each game so far. Keenum has a great veteran duo of receivers and the Broncos appear to finally have found a running game. We can't blame the offensive line, as he's gotten an average of 2.76 seconds Time to Throw, which is better than Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, and Ben Roethlisberger among others. Everything is in place for him to succeed and the Chiefs defense might be the final piece of the puzzle. They have allowed the most passing yards of all teams over three games (1,127 total or 375 per game), have just one interception and are in the bottom-10 for sacks. He will have no choice but to air it out against that offense so look for a possible repeat of Week 1 and plug him into superflex lineups.

RUNNING BACKS

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

In his first game back, Jones only touched the ball seven times and saw the field for 24% of offensive snaps. That's bound to increase this week, especially if the Pack can avoid the mistakes of their northern brethren, the Vikings. Not only should the Packers control this game, they should try to keep it on the ground as much as possible to protect their franchise QB. While the main argument for Jamaal Williams over Aaron Jones has been pass protection, if Green Bay decides they want to put a little balance in their offense, Jones could see as much work. We know Jones does more with his touches than Williams, averaging 5.6 yards per carry over the first 13 games of his NFL career compared to 3.7 for Williams. He's a better pass-catcher too and presents far more upside. As may be the case all season long, Williams figures to be the safer play if you want a handful of points and a chance for a touchdown, but Jones is the higher upside play by far. It doesn't hurt that he recently got a public endorsement from his Offensive Coordinator Joe Philbin about being explosive. While I don't trust Philbin to run an NFL team, I always go to him for my fantasy football advice.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Sterling Shepard, New York Giants

This almost seems too obvious but it bears repeating since Shepard is currently slotted to start in just 27% of Yahoo leagues as of Thursday evening. Evan Engram is out, which will open up plenty of looks to the slot receiver. The Saints have allowed the third most passing yards this season at 336.7 yards a game while also giving up 10 touchdown passes, tied for the most in the league. That was before the lost slot corner Patrick Robinson to a broken ankle. Things could get ugly quick, although it could be a beautiful stat line for fantasy owners of players on both sides.

Taylor Gabriel, Chicago Bears

You may not have noticed based on the lackluster returns, but Gabriel has gotten to be a target hog. His target count has gone up progressively from five to seven to 10, although his yardage barely crept up with it (25, 30, 34). He's getting more targets than Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, and Cooper Kupp among others so maybe we should pay attention. This is the ideal time, as Anthony Miller has already been ruled out and Tampa Bay is, let's just say generous on defense. Allen Robinson will draw plenty of attention from the secondary but Gabriel will be left on his own to face rookie Carlton Davis. I'd have more conviction if Gabriel was averaging more than 5.9 yards per catch, but we know he's got the speed to get loose and break a big play at any moment. It'll take a deep league and a PPR scoring system to make him a starter, but he's basically available everywhere and could be worth a shot.

TIGHT END

Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons

The emergence of Calvin Ridley could have one of two effects on Hooper. A) Ryan will have more trust in Ridley and continue to use him as a red zone threat, stealing looks from Hooper. B) Ridley's presence will spread defenses thinner and open up the middle of the field for Hooper even more. Since he's in the Heroes column, you can tell which way I'm leaning.

Ridley and Hooper are tied with Mohamed Sanu for the team lead in red zone targets with three. That's right, Julio Jones only has two. All three of those targets have come inside the 10-yard line so it's not a throw-away stat either. Hooper had a big game in Week 2, by tight end standards at least, with 59 yards and a touchdown but has been relatively quiet in the other two games. The Bengals aren't a pushover like the Saints but they are the fifth-most generous defense against TE so far and Hooper still has no threat for snaps at his position.

Week 4 Lineup Zeroes

QUARTERBACKS

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

No, this isn't retribution for him letting me down two weeks ago. I've clearly forgotten all about that. This isn't about the fact Jacoby Brissett came in to chuck a Hail Mary at the end of the game. Luck has looked OK personally but the offensive line and lack of running game are still issues that will haunt this team and limit his effectiveness. Now he's dealing with a groin injury and we don't really know how strong his shoulder is, to be honest. Luck is dinking and dunking a bit too much to make him a QB1, especially when you see players drafted as fantasy backups (or not at all) like Pat Mahomes, Andy Dalton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick lighting up the scoreboard each week. As you can see below, the majority of Luck's targets peak just under five yards (his actual aDoT is 5.2) whereas the league average is closer to nine yards per target.

image courtesy of Airyards.com

The Texans are underachieving against the pass so far but they possess a strong enough front seven that Luck's short passing game could be rendered less effective. If he doesn't start hooking up with TY Hilton on some long gains soon enough, fantasy owners may want to look the other way.

RUNNING BACKS

Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins

Fear the Drake? Not so much. His touches have gone down each week from 17 in Week 1 to 15 in Week 2 and just seven last week. These were all victories against weak teams, mind you. In none of those successful outings has Drake even reached 75 total yards. As our man Chris Mangano pointed out on the Fantasy Bomb, the Fins are winning by slowing the game down at a historically slow pace. They've logged 166 offensive snaps through three games, a pace of 885 for the year. The 2017 Bengals were by far the lowest and that was at 962.

Focusing on Week 4 alone, Drake will try to get going on the road against a Patriots team that is 1-2 and looking for a key divisional victory against an overachieving rival. You see where this is headed, don't you? I not only expect a complete thrashing by the Pats, I expect the Dolphins to be playing from behind early. Drake could see his season-high in receptions but there is little hope for a breakout here. Maybe it's just the cynical Dolfan in me talking though.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars

Which Jags receiver do you take a chance on? Most weeks it is Cole, who leads the team with 21 targets and 210 yards. He's a deep threat that could expose a vulnerable Jets defense. But Leonard Fournette is back and that could revert him to a boom-bust play. The Jets really haven't been bad against the pass either, limiting their last two opponents to 190 and 122 passing yards. In Week 1, the Lions did most of their damage in the second half when the game was already out of hand. Trusting the top receiver for Blake Bortles is tough enough but don't let this week's matchup fool you into thinking Cole is a safe play.

TIGHT END

Jimmy Graham, Green Bay Packers

I can't bring myself to truly hate Jimmy Graham in fantasy this week, mainly because it is still Buffalo on the other side. We are finding out the Vikings defense is not what it was cracked up to be, so give them and the Bills a little less credit for last week's upset. That said, this isn't about the matchup so much as Graham's competition for targets that he didn't face last season in the red zone. A gimpy Aaron Rodgers does have me a bit nervous too. Graham has been more involved after a disappointing first game, registering 11 catches in the last two contests. While he's not a must-sit altogether, the same reason I'm big on Aaron Jones (above) is the reason I don't have full confidence in Graham as a TE1 if he doesn't reach the end zone, which he hasn't done yet as a Cheesehead. Prove me wrong Jimmy!

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