Henry Davis: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

June 20, 2023

Is Henry Davis a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Davis's 2023 fantasy value.

Another day, another top prospect making his big league debut. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a realistic shot at the postseason and very little offensive production from their catchers, so Henry Davis has been called up to provide the same spark that Adley Rutschman provided the upstart Orioles last season.

Davis was selected first overall in the 2021 draft and was seen as an advanced bat with a strong work ethic, but many scouts question his viability as a backstop at the highest level. He'll start with catcher eligibility in most formats, and fantasy managers are always interested in backstops with offensive upside.

Is Davis somebody worth rostering right away? Unfortunately, we don't have as much data as we typically would since injuries and aggressive promotions have limited his MiLB sample sizes. Let's take a look at what the 23-year-old might offer in fantasy.

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The Scouting Report on Henry Davis

When most people hear that someone was the first overall pick, they think of generational prospects such as Ken Griffey Jr., Stephen Strasburg, or Bryce Harper. Davis never really fit that mold, generally appearing in the middle of top prospect lists as opposed to the top 10.

For example, MLB Pipeline ranks Davis third in the Pittsburgh system and 44th overall. They see the bat as ready, with a 55-grade hit accompanied by 60-grade power. His scouting report notes that Davis is capable of hitting the ball hard to all fields with an "advanced plate approach." It also notes that Davis crowds the plate, leading to 20 HBP in just 59 games played last year.

The FanGraphs scouting report is more extreme, seeing Davis as a 35-hitter (45 in the future) with 50/60 game power and excellent 70/70 raw power. Davis ranks second in Pittsburgh's system and 36th overall. We can expect Davis to hit for plus power right away while his batting average could be more of a risk. His eye should keep him from being too much of an average drain though, making him an appealing lottery ticket in fantasy.

How Did Henry Davis Fare on the Farm?

Davis didn't turn pro until a year and a half ago, and an oblique injury limited him to eight total games in 2021. That means 2022 and 2023 are effectively his entire MiLB career, and he split 2022 between three different levels and missed significant time with a wrist injury. We're working with minimal data.

Davis logged 15 PAs at A ball, a sample small enough to throw out completely. Our analysis begins at High-A (Greensboro) where Davis thrived, slashing .341/450/.585 with five homers and steals in 100 PAs. His 22.7% HR/FB suggested great raw power, though his 34.4 FB% was low enough to prevent him from fully unlocking it. His plate discipline also looked good with an 8 BB% and 18 K%, but he probably won't run a .383 BABIP at the highest level.

The Pirates promoted Davis to Double-A (Altoona) quickly and he struggled, hitting just .207/.324/.379 with four homers and three steals in 136 PAs. His plate discipline was similar (8.8 BB%, 22.1 K%), but his BABIP fell to .244 while his HR/FB of 10.8% was less than half of his previous mark.

However, this author doesn't think Davis was overwhelmed by the competition but instead, he was hurt. He was hit by a pitch on the wrist in early May which led to an IL stint until mid-June, at which point he returned to the field. The wrist was still bothering him and Davis was again ILed in early July, this time for the rest of the campaign. We know that wrist injuries sap power, so it's not surprising that a power-first bat was struggling to produce with one.

Davis returned to Altoona this year with a fully-healed wrist. The result was a .284/.433/.379 line with 10 HR and seven swipes in just 187 PAs. His plate discipline was amazing with a 17.1 BB% against an 18.7 K%, his 21.3% HR/FB was impressive, and he elevated the ball at a 42.7% rate. His BABIP also bounced back to .311.

The Pirates liked what they saw and promoted Davis to Triple-A (Indianapolis). He only logged 45 PAs there before making his big league debut, and his .286/.432/.514 line was nearly identical to his Double-A performance. His plate discipline was great with a 17.8 BB% and 24.4 K%, his .391 BABIP was high, and he hit fewer flies with a 29.2% rate. Considering the small sample, the variance is likely predictive of nothing.

From a fantasy perspective, the most interesting thing about Davis's MiLB resume is his steals. He runs like a catcher with 30-40 wheels, but he steals 15-20 bags at every stop prorated to 500 PAs. His success rates are also good, going 5-for-6 at Greensboro (83% success), 3-for-4 at Altoona in 2022 (75%), 7-for-10 at Altoona in 2023 (70%), and 2-for-3 at Indianapolis (67%). This suggests that he steals bases with his head, not his legs.

Considering the league-wide uptick in stealing and Pittsburgh ranking fourth in the league with 72 SB as a team, Davis might be allowed to give his managers a smattering of steals. We'll never say no to steals from a catcher! Just know that he won't steal 20+ since he has to catch the other team napping.

How Will the Pirates Use Henry Davis?

Davis hit seventh in his big league debut, a lineup spot with no intrinsic fantasy value. However, he got the start in RF, not behind the plate. The Pirates plan to use Davis largely at RF and DH to start, though he will participate in catching drills and catch occasionally. The result should be more PAs than the average catcher records, boosting his fantasy value.

Considering his previous injury woes and defensive questions behind the plate, Davis may be best served playing at other positions more often than not. Keeper league managers will want to monitor how often he actually catches to make sure he doesn't lose eligibility there.

The Verdict on Henry Davis

Davis has catcher eligibility, a solid prospect pedigree, excellent raw power, strong strike zone awareness, and a chance to steal. He's a Champ who needs to be rostered in a lot more than 30% of Yahoo! leagues.

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