RADIO
Every offseason, there is no shortage of predictions in the fantasy football world. Many fall within a certain consensus range of how each player is generally perceived, but every analyst has certain players they feel particularly strongly about. It is these beliefs that are the foundation of one of the most fun columns to produce each year: the bold predictions column.
The fantasy season always has twists and turns that few people predict in advance. Articles like this one aim to identify what these twists may be.
If you're in the mood for even more boldness, check out similar articles by Justin Carter and Pierre Camus.
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Trevor Lawrence Outscores Dak Prescott In Fantasy Football
Let's start with the first half of this prediction: that Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence outperforms his expectations. The second-year QB should have little difficulty improving upon his output as a rookie; he threw just 12 touchdown passes and had the most interceptable passes in the league in 2021. He also averaged just 0.34 fantasy points per dropback, 32nd in the NFL.
With such dire numbers, it may be difficult to believe there's a bright side here, but there is. Lawrence had the fourth-most money throws in the league last season, demonstrating the arm talent that made him the first overall pick in the 2021 draft. He also suffered from a suboptimal set of receivers; 43 of his passes were dropped, the most of any QB in the NFL.
With the Jacksonville front office breaking the bank in free agency to sign Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram, this should be remedied. Travis Etienne also returns from injury, providing Lawrence with an additional weapon out of the backfield.
The positive developments don't end there. The Jaguars have a new head coach, as Doug Pederson replaces the departing Urban Meyer. Pederson played quarterback himself and is widely known as a QB-whisperer, having coached former Eagles passer, Carson Wentz, to MVP candidacy in 2017. Under his guidance, Lawrence should make major statistical strides in 2022.
On the flip side, Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott will likely underperform his ADP this season. With the news that his long-time blindside protector Tyron Smith is going to miss extensive time with a torn hamstring, Prescott may be under more duress in the pocket in 2022.
The Dallas offensive line did a great job protecting him in 2020 when Smith missed most of the season, but now the projected left tackle is unproven rookie Tyler Smith. Moreover, the team lost starting guard Connor Williams to Miami in free agency. Counting on Prescott to experience the seventh-best protection rate in the league again is a risky move.
Additionally, the Cowboys downgraded at receiver this offseason. Starter Amari Cooper was dealt to Cleveland, leaving a vacancy at the team's WR2 spot behind CeeDee Lamb. The possible replacements are uninspiring. Michael Gallup is still recovering from a torn ACL, James Washington is also injured and failed to ever break out in Pittsburgh, and third-round rookie Jalen Tolbert has disappointed in the preseason.
Also noteworthy is that Prescott's 2021 touchdown percentage (6.2%) greatly exceeded his career average (4.9%), suggesting that his 2022 figure will regress to the mean. With all of these factors in mind, it's natural to believe Prescott's production this season will decrease from last year's totals. Considering he was the QB11 on a per-dropback basis last season, his ADP of QB10 since May seems unjustified.
When navigating your draft, it would be unwise to draft Prescott as your starting QB if you miss out on the top tier. Instead, you should wait for a few rounds, grab Lawrence, and reap the benefits.
A.J. Dillon Falls Outside the Top-30 RBs
The Green Bay Packers will look different on offense this season after they traded superstar wide receiver Davante Adams to the Raiders in March. Green Bay's front office signed wideout Sammy Watkins and drafted receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to fill the void Adams is leaving behind. Nonetheless, with Watkins not having surpassed 1,000 receiving yards since 2015 and the rookies being inexperienced, the squad will rely on Allen Lazard as its WR1.
With the departure of Adams, as well as the loss of receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the Chiefs, the Packers may need to use their running backs more as a focal point of their offense. This has contributed to both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon having ADPs in the top-25 RBs this offseason, with Jones at RB11 and Dillon at RB22. This status is only warranted for Jones, however.
With a large number of targets being vacated, quarterback Aaron Rodgers may be looking to his running backs more frequently in the passing game. This would benefit Jones much more than Dillon. Jones had a snap share of 58.5% last season and Dillon was at 42.6%, the ratio of Jones's share to Dillon's was 1.37.
With regard to their target shares, though, the ratio becomes much larger. With Jones's target share at 12.9% in 2021 and Dillon's at 6.5%, the ratio would become 1.98. Thus, Rodgers targets Jones more often when he's on the field than he targets Dillon when Dillon's on the field. Jones stands to have his opportunity share increase more than Dillon does after the loss of Adams.
Several other key indicators favor Jones as well. Dillon's production premium of +8.3, while very strong, was lower than Jones's mark of +11.6 in 2021. Jones also averaged more fantasy points per opportunity (0.97 versus 0.83) and yards created per touch (3.35 versus 2.90). All of this is to say that the dynamic of Jones as the 1A option and Dillon as the 1B option will not be changing, barring injuries.
Now let's look at why being the 1B option won't be enough to push Dillon into the top-30 RBs. In this role in 2021, he had an opportunity share of 45.1% (41st among running backs) and 170.3 weighted opportunities (27th). He also averaged just the 34th-most fantasy points per touch among running backs last year.
Neither his workload nor his efficiency is enough to make him a clear top-30 option at his position. It's important to note also that Jones missed two games last season whereas Dillon missed none; if Jones hadn't been injured, Dillon's opportunity share would have been even lower.
If Aaron Jones gets injured, this situation changes completely. Until then, though, the hype for Dillon seems misplaced. The median outcome would be him underperforming his ADP for sure. His upside is high, but the chance of disappointment is as well. It would be better to hold off on drafting Dillon as your RB3 and ultimately end up with Antonio Gibson or Chase Edmonds in that spot.
Lamar Jackson Finishes as the QB1
In 2019, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson had one of the greatest seasons in NFL history. With 3,127 passing yards, 36 passing touchdowns, 1,206 rushing yards, and seven rushing touchdowns, Jackson averaged 28.1 fantasy points per game. The Baltimore star won the league's MVP award by a unanimous vote, becoming just the second player ever to do so. For reference, Josh Allen led the league's QBs with 24.56 fantasy points per game in 2021.
In 2020, Jackson regressed slightly from his astonishing numbers from the previous season, yet he still averaged 0.84 fantasy points per dropback, most in the NFL. He also became the first quarterback in league history to post a second 1,000-yard rushing season, providing fantasy managers with an unprecedented floor of rushing production for the position.
Last season saw some marked declines in his efficiency. He dropped all the way to... fourth in fantasy points per dropback and seventh in fantasy points per game among QBs. The latter figure comes despite him exiting Week 13 in the first quarter due to an injury. He was clearly an excellent fantasy option, yet many detractors act as though he fell off completely.
Lamar Jackson vs Colts
💥 442 passing yards
💥 62 rushing yards
💥 4 TDsMONSTER VICTORY pic.twitter.com/2O1JrozQBS
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 12, 2021
It's also important to consider what factored into Jackson having a disappointing campaign by his lofty standards. His touchdown percentage (4.2%) was well below his career average (6.3%) and his interception percentage (3.4%) was much higher than his average (2.3%). These numbers should return to their baselines in 2022.
Combining this positive regression with Jackson's increasing pass attempt figures should be a recipe for career-high passing numbers. In 2019, Jackson averaged 26.7 pass attempts per game, and in 2020 that number was 25.1. In 2021, he threw 31.8 passes per game. It seems unlikely he repeats that number considering it is an outlier in his career so far, but even being around 28-29 passes per game would be massive for fantasy managers.
With how dominant Jackson has been in fantasy football over the past three seasons, it is shocking that he is not receiving more interest as the QB1. The dual-threat playmaker should be a target for those wishing to draft a quarterback early.
DeVonta Smith is a Top-24 WR
Let's look at why Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith may ascend to unexpected heights this year. In 2021, he saw the ninth most deep targets of any WR despite having just the 32nd most total targets at the position. He also accounted for 38.9 percent of Philadelphia's air yards, sixth-most among wideouts. This may give him an advantage over teammate A.J. Brown in the sense that quarterback Jalen Hurts already trusts Smith as a downfield threat. By contrast, Brown is a new addition to the squad.
Additionally, Smith is an excellent route runner. Brown has already praised him for this trait in training camp. Plays like the one in the Tweet below are what made him a Heisman Trophy winner at Alabama and the 10th-overall pick in last year's draft.
.@DeVontaSmith_6 is a technician with the routes. #FlyEaglesFly
📺: #DALvsPHI on ESPN/ABC
📱: https://t.co/db0DaDFSBa pic.twitter.com/2jfWd4ZSHq— NFL (@NFL) January 9, 2022
Smith has also reportedly put some effort into bulking up this offseason, which is a welcome development. Last year, he played at just 170 pounds, so any additional weight can help when fighting for contested catches. Moreover, he is getting attention for being unstoppable in joint practices in the preseason. If Jalen Hurts throws as often as he did in the first seven weeks of 2021 (34.6 attempts per game) rather than the rate of his last eight (23.8), Smith should hit this prediction.
I considered saying Smith would outscore Brown outright, but in the end, I didn't feel comfortable going that far with this prediction. With that said, Smith is a great value at his ADP of WR37. When targeting a WR3/4, Smith is an excellent option.
Darnell Mooney is a Top-15 WR
The Chicago Bears are likely to be among the NFL's worst teams in 2022. Only the Seahawks, Falcons, Texans, and Jets have a lower win total over/under at DraftKings Sportsbook. If this holds, Chicago would be in a lot of situations where passing is a necessity to stage a comeback.
This begs the question: which receivers would Bears QB Justin Fields be throwing to? Byron Pringle, who has just 67 receptions through three seasons in the league? Equanimeous St. Brown, who has just 37 in the same timeframe? N'Keal Harry, who was traded from New England after failing to catch on after three years? Velus Jones Jr., who didn't break out in college until the age of 24? None of these options inspire confidence.
No, when Fields needs a downfield threat, he will be targeting Darnell Mooney. Tight end Cole Kmet will siphon some targets, but the real prize is Mooney. The athletic wideout already saw a lofty 26.7 percent target share in 2021; now that Allen Robinson has left Chicago for the Rams, this number should only increase. When he can make plays like the one below, it's easy to see why.
.@Darnell_M1 makin' plays 🤩
📺: #KCvsCHI on Fox32 & @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/QBNsEccD7j
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) August 13, 2022
Fields should improve as a passer in his second year in the league, which would greatly benefit Mooney. Mooney had the 17th-most receiving yards last season but the ninth-most unrealized air yards, suggesting there was room to increase production even at the existing target rate. He also displayed a great ability to find separation from defenders; his 1.96 yards of average separation ranked seventh among wideouts.
Mooney will be peppered with targets to an extent unmatched by other receivers near his ADP. Jerry Jeudy and JuJu Smith-Schuster, for example, do not have as clear of a path to massive volume. Mooney is going as the WR27 in drafts, a position he should easily outperform barring injuries.
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