X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Harris Yudin's 10 Bold Predictions for 2017

Over the final two weeks leading up to Opening Day, our writers will be offering their most audacious projections for the 2017 fantasy baseball season. This is my second year contributing to this bold predictions series.

Last season, I hit on a couple of predictions (Jake Arrieta’s fall from grace, Christian Yelich’s breakout, Roberto Osuna cementing himself as a top reliever) and embarrassed myself with several others— won’t go into too much detail, you can find the piece here.

Here are this year’s predictions, all of which contain positive outlooks.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Harris Yudin's 10 Bold Predictions for 2017

1. Jarrod Dyson leads MLB in stolen bases

Dyson has been limited to a platoon/bench role throughout his career in Kansas City, accumulating 156 steals over his last five years— the sixth-most in baseball over that span despite never seeing 300 at-bats in a single season. Now, the 32-year-old speedster will be given an opportunity to become more than a part-time player with the Mariners. Dyson’s .278/.340/.388 slash line from 2016 featured three career highs (min. 100 PA), and while he doesn’t possess any power, he has proven to be a capable hitter, even hitting .379 in 29 AB against southpaws. If he can secure a spot atop Seattle’s lineup and maintain respectable rate stats, Dyson could not only steal 50-60 bases, but also sniff 80 or 90 runs, as well. Of course, to lead the majors in swipes he will need to stay healthy and hit above .280, but that’s not so crazy as far as bold predictions go.

2. Yu Darvish finishes as SP1 in the American League

Last year, I wrote about Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg finishing, alongside Clayton Kershaw, among the top three starters in MLB. That… didn’t go so well. But that doesn’t mean I’m going to stop recognizing upside— especially in my bold predictions. Darvish is another less-than-durable pitcher with tremendous stuff, and this could be the year he fully develops into a truly elite arm. Darvish, 30, has made just 37 starts over the last three seasons combined, but boasts an impressive 2.94 FIP over that span— eighth-best mark among SP with at least 240 IP. If he can just stay healthy, Darvish has the stuff to compile 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and a sub-3.00 ERA.

I know this seems not-so-bold considering my colleague Nick Mariano predicted Darvish to be overall SP1 (!!!), but I have too much respect for Kershaw (and, incidentally, no respect whatsoever for Nick) to oust the three-time Cy Young Award winner from the top spot.

3. Joc Pederson hits 30 homers, finishes as a top-20 outfielder

All Pederson has done since coming into the league is hit bombs— 51 one of them to be exact, in just 886 AB. While the narrative seems to be that he hasn’t improved since coming into the league, that’s not even close to being true. The 24-year-old cut down on the massive 29.1 percent strikeout rate from his rookie year, his BABIP jumped up 34 points (still with room for growth) and his OBP shot up 84 points. His contact rate increased from 66.7 percent to 75.0 percent, and he made harder contact in the process. The biggest concern surrounding Pederson is his high HR/FB rate (23.1 percent), but he has the raw power and the uppercut swing to increase his home run output. He would’ve eclipsed 30 long balls last year if you prorate his numbers over a full season, so a healthy Pederson could actually sniff 40 if he can continue to cut down on his whiffs.

4. Carlos Correa OR Corey Seager finishes as the No. 2 overall player

This one is inspired by some Rotoballer readers who were taken aback by first, my claim that Seager could wind up as the second best player in fantasy this year, and second, the fact that I actually prefer Correa to Seager. It’s kind of a cop out, but whatever. The two young shortstops sit at No. 14 and No. 15 in my rankings, so this is not a HUGE reach. Still, I can’t imagine any fantasy owner is entrusting either player with a top-five pick on draft day.

Correa took a minor step back in his second season, hitting 20 HR with 13 SB and a .274/.361/.451 slash line. Still, he recorded a 37.2 percent hard hit rate and knocked in 96 runs. His home run total was a result of a low fly ball rate and a poor HR/FB ratio, but both of those numbers could very well creep back toward where they were in 2015. Correa has 30/20 potential, and could rack up 200 R+RBI hitting in the potent Astros lineup.

What Seager lacks in speed (five steals in 800 PA), he makes up for in power and on-base skills. Over those 800 PA, the 22-year-old has slashed .312/.374/.519 with 30 HR, 122 R and 89 RBI. His walk and strikeout rates (7.9 and 19.4 percent, respectively) are not so concerning for a 21-year-old rookie, and it’s more than feasible for him to improve upon those numbers in his sophomore campaign.

There’s definitely the opportunity for either Correa or Seager to be out-done by only Mike Trout, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see both of them in the top 10 overall at year’s end.

5. Andrew McCutchen hits over .300

I can’t tell if this is extremely bold or really not that bold at all. On one hand, the 30-year-old McCutchen has seen a progressive decline in his overall numbers over the last few years, and could simply be on a downward trajectory with eight full seasons under his belt. On the other hand, 30 is often still within a player’s prime, and Cutch has continued to post solid counting stats— he has eclipsed 20 home runs in each of the last six years. So his average has dropped from .314 in 2014 to .292 in 2015 and then down to a meager .256 last season, but it’s hard to imagine he went from an elite on-base option to a .250 hitter in just two years.

McCutchen’s OPS was 48 points higher in the second half of the year than in the first, and it sat well over .800 from August through the end of the regular season. Additionally, his walk rate jumped 3.1 points and his strikeout rate fell 7.8 points from the first half to the second. I don’t think I really believe McCutchen will break the .300 mark again, but to completely rule out a bounce back would be foolish.

6. Carlos Rodon strikes out more batters than Chris Sale

I think it’s only fair to preface this by saying that I do like Sale this year, and I don’t think the move to Fenway will really have any negative effects on his numbers. This is more about Rodon and the leap I expect him to take. The 24-year-old has a complete arsenal, headlined by a wipeout slider that was among the 10 best in baseball last year. In his sophomore campaign, Rodon improved his strikeout rate, lowered his walk rate and induced weaker contact despite a bump in his fly ball rate.

Yes, Sale struck out 65 more batters a year ago, but they posted remarkably similar K/9 rates. The biggest obstacle here is that Sale is an innings eater, with at least 200 in three of his last four years, so Rodon will have to at least come close to matching his workload to pull this off. If that were to happen — likely as a result of an injury to Sale — this prediction could come to fruition. Rodon has the stuff to one day lead the AL in strikeouts, so why can’t that be this year?

7. Mike Moustakas finishes as a top-10 third baseman

We know the top four— Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson, in whatever order — but it gets a little blurry after that. Third base is a deep position, and there are at least 15 guys who could solidify one of the remaining spots in the top 10. Moustakas’s 2016 season was cut short in May by a knee injury, but he was hitting at an impressive pace— seven homers, 13 RBI in just 104 at-bats with improved strikeout and walk rates. He displayed an enhanced ability to reach base in his last full season of 2015, and that should continue in 2017 if he can remain healthy. A stat line of 30 homers, 80 runs, 90 RBI and a .280 average is within reach for the 28-year-old, and those numbers should place him among the top 10 who are eligible at the hot corner.

8. Tommy Joseph finishes as a top-10 first basemen

Joseph is a popular sleeper pick for 2017, but I think he is capable of even exceeding those expectations. NFBC has him as the 24th 1B-eligible player off the board, so cracking the top 10 would certainly be a surprise. After battling injuries and inconsistency throughout the minors, Joseph made his major league debut in May, and proceeded to smack 21 homers over just 315 at-bats. His batted ball profile indicates his power isn’t likely to fade, and while he may never be a .280 hitter, his .267 BABIP should improve, and with it, his .257 average. The potential for 35-40 homers means Joseph could out-produce guys like Eric Hosmer, Brandon Belt and Adrian Gonzalez.

9. Jurickson Profar manages 15/15 season

Honestly, there’s not a whole lot to back this up— Profar hit five homers with two steals and a .239 average across 272 AB last season. In fact, he’s never gone 15/15 at any level of his professional career. But Profar, who headlined what has become a very underwhelming top-10 prospect group from 2012, still possesses five-tool talent, and if he can remain healthy, the 24-year-old (yes, he only turned 24 in February) should receive solid playing time between left field and DH for the Rangers. He’s not on my mixed league radar (currently ranked No. 365), but Fangraphs says that rostering him would require blind hope, and that’s exactly what I am using to justify this prediction!

10. Dylan Bundy finishes as top-40 starter

About two sentences ago, I mentioned that the 2012 prospect class has largely been a disappointment. Right behind Profar on that list was Dylan Bundy— a crafty right-hander who was selected by the Orioles with the fourth overall pick in the 2011 MLB Draft. Bundy tossed 1.2 innings in the big leagues in 2012, but failed to reach the highest level again until 2016, as injuries limited his time on the field and stunted his development. Last season, Bundy made the jump to the bigs and proceeded to hurl 109.2 quality innings, racking up 104 strikeouts to go along with a 4.02 ERA. Nothing overly impressive, but he has flashed dominance at times, particularly in his one-hit shutout over seven innings against the Rangers on Aug. 2. Bundy managed a strong 10.5 percent swinging strike, and his batted ball profile improved from the first half to the second— other than his HR/FB rate, which should come back down as he continues to command the strike zone better. Bundy isn’t the safest mixed-league pick, but he has the potential to break out in 2017.

 

More 2017 RotoBaller Predictions




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tarik Skubal

Tigers "Doubtful" to Trade Tarik Skubal
Jarrett Allen

Questionable for Friday
Simon Holmstrom

Ready for Action Thursday
Lars Eller

Available Thursday
Domantas Sabonis

Will Miss at Least 3-4 Weeks
Ridly Greig

Out Against Ducks
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Out Against Bulls on Friday
Jake Neighbours

Back for Blues Thursday
Alexandre Sarr

Listed as Questionable for Friday Against the Raptors
TB

Nicholas Paul Available Thursday
Paul George

Set to Suit Up Thursday
Victor Hedman

Out for "Couple of Weeks"
Tyler Bertuzzi

Set to Return Thursday
Gary Harris

Added to the Injury Report as Questionable for Thursday
Daniel Jones

Added to Colts' Injury Report With Calf Issue
Andrew Wiggins

Unavailable For Friday's Matchup With Chicago
Indiana Pacers

Garrison Mathews Will Join the Pacers
Joe Burrow

Logs Second Straight Full Practice on Thursday
Dante Exum

Will Miss the Rest of the Season
Keegan Murray

Is Available For His Season Debut Thursday
Tyrese Maxey

Listed as Probable for Thursday
Domantas Sabonis

Will Not Play Thursday Against Memphis
Joel Embiid

Listed as Out for Thursday
Aaron Rodgers

Seen at Practice on Thursday
Jaylen Warren

Moving Around Well on Thursday
Bucky Irving

Will be on a Snap Count When he Returns
Jaxson Dart

Could Clear Concussion Protocol Thursday
Lamar Jackson

Returns to Thursday's Practice
Josh Jacobs

to Do Individual Drills on Thursday
Joe Mixon

Not Expected to Play This Season
Chris Godwin

Attending Thursday's Practice
Bucky Irving

Continues Practice Attendance
Rasmus Andersson

Bags Three Points Wednesday Night
Morgan Geekie

Nets Two Power-Play Goals Wednesday
Joe Burrow

Bengals Haven't Ruled Out Joe Burrow for Week 12
Connor McMichael

Posts Three Assists in Wednesday's Win
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Place Alexander Romanov on Injured Reserve
Lars Eller

to Miss Thursday's Action
Nic Dowd

Out on Thursday
Adam Lowry

Inks Extension With Jets
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Likely Out on Thursday
Zaccharie Risacher

Questionable for Thursday
Kristaps Porzingis

at Risk of Missing Another Game
Paolo Banchero

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Kawhi Leonard

Remains Out Against Magic
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Ruled Out for Two Weeks
Tyler Herro

Targeting Return on Monday
Brian Thomas Jr.

Limited in Practice on Wednesday
Jerami Grant

Available Wednesday Night
Raisel Iglesias

Returning to the Braves on One-Year Deal
Lamar Jackson

Absent Due to Ankle Injury
Conor Garland

to Return on Thursday
Thomas Harley

to Miss Road Trip
Eetu Luostarinen

Out Week-to-Week After Barbecue Accident
Curtis Lazar

to Miss at Least Three Games
Vladimir Tarasenko

Misses Third Consecutive Game
Mikael Granlund

Remains Out Wednesday
Charlie McAvoy

Out Indefinitely After Facial Surgery
Joe Burrow

to Potentially Return in Week 12?
Aaron Rodgers

Out on Wednesday, Hopes to Practice Thursday
Jaylen Warren

Not Seen at Wednesday's Practice
Dak Prescott

Lands on Injury Report Ahead of Week 12 With Hip Injury
Rhamondre Stevenson

Targeting a Return in Week 12?
Isiah Pacheco

Returning to Practice on Wednesday
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jaguars "Optimistic" About Brian Thomas Jr.'s Week 12 Status
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Continue Fall Run at RSM Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Looking to Bounce Back at RSM Classic
Tom Hoge

Looking to Regain Form at RSM Classic
Joe Highsmith

Searching for Turnaround at RSM Classic
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Build on T11 Finish in Bermuda
Austin Eckroat

Searching for Momentum at RSM Classic
Joel Dahmen

Trying to Find Form at the RSM Classic
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful to Play Against Western Kentucky
Michael Thorbjornsen

Hopes to End 2025 Campaign With Another Solid Finish
Andrew Novak

Looks to End 2025 Season on High Note at RSM Classic
Harry Higgs

Teetering for PGA Tour Card in 2026
PGA

Nico Echavarria has the Potential to Contend at the RSM Classic
Sam Stevens

Finishing Out Year in Georgia
Seamus Power

Playing Better at the Right Time
Beau Hossler

Roller Coaster Comes to Saint Simons Island
Quade Cummins

The Time is Now for Quade Cummins in Georgia
Austin Cook

Needs a Win at the RSM Classic
Cameron Champ

on the PGA Tour Card Bubble
Grayson Rodriguez

Shipped to Angels
Taylor Ward

Orioles Acquire Taylor Ward From Angels
Shota Imanaga

Accepts Cubs Qualifying Offer
Brandon Woodruff

Returning to Milwaukee in 2026
Denny McCarthy

Looking For Another Solid Finish at RSM Classic
Si Woo Kim

Looking To Use Current Momentum to Flip Script at RSM Classic
Mackenzie Hughes

a Good Bounce-Back Candidate at RSM Classic
Harris English

Making 14th Start at This Week's RSM Classic
Konnor Griffin

Could Compete for Starting Shortstop Job in 2026
Gleyber Torres

Accepts Tigers Qualifying Offer
CFB

Sam Leavitt Set to Enter Transfer Portal?
Jose Altuve

Undergoes Foot Surgery
Alex Bregman

Red Sox Going for Either Alex Bregman or Pete Alonso?
CFB

James Franklin to be Virginia Tech's Next Head Coach
CFB

Fernando Mendoza the Clear Heisman Trophy Favorite?
CFB

Beau Pribula Has Chance to Face Oklahoma on Saturday
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated
Islam Makhachev

Claims UFC Welterweight Belt
Zhang Weili

Gets Outclassed
Valentina Shevchenko

Wins Unanimous Decision At UFC 322
Sean Brady

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Michael Morales

Remains Unbeaten
Leon Edwards

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Leon Edwards

Carlos Prates Becomes The First Man To Knock Out Leon Edwards
Beneil Dariush

Suffers Brutal First-Round Knockout Loss
Beneil Dariush

Benoit Saint Denis Knocks Out Beneil Dariush In 16 Seconds
Josh Naylor

Mariners Finalizing Five-Year Contract
CFB

Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate Not Dealing With Long-Term Injuries
CFB

Virginia Tech Close To Naming James Franklin As Head Coach
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Doubtful vs. Arkansas On Saturday
Edwin Díaz

Blue Jays Interested in Signing Edwin Diaz?
Jacob deGrom

Named AL Comeback Player of the Year
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Wins NL Comeback Player of the Year Award
Aroldis Chapman

Named AL Reliever of the Year
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Named NL Reliever of the Year

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP