Ellis Johnson's Running Backs #11-20: Half-PPR Fantasy Football Rankings

You've seen my top 10 running back rankings, now it's time for the next running backs ranked #11-20! Last season my draft rankings finished 61st overall in the FantasyPros accuracy competition. I hope to have another successful year in 2022.

In this article, I break down my thoughts on players #11-20 and provide my projected statistic for each player. You can find the rest of my projections here.

My name is Ellis, and I want to thank you all for checking out my work. Find me on Twitter @YoitsEllis_FF and let me know what you think!

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#11-20 - Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings (Half-PPR)

August 2022 Update

11. Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG):

What has happened to Barkley? Mr. Generational has seemingly disappeared right before our eyes. Still, there’s no denying the elite talent. His disappointing production has been largely due to injuries, plus he is stuck on one of the worst-managed teams in the league.

Thankfully, that seems to be turning a page this year, after the Giants brought in a new coach and drafted arguably the best O-lineman in the 2022 class. With all of this, can Barkley get back to form?

Firstly, I don’t expect this offense to be electric, limiting his touchdown upside. Secondly, in his rookie year, a lot of his value came from the passing game, averaging nearly six receptions per game. Since then (and since Daniel Jones has taken over), he has averaged 3.5 receptions per game. Say what you will, but this offense is full of solid pass catchers; Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, Kadarius Toney, and rookie Wan'Dale Robinson.

For him to return to his fantasy glory, Jones needs to use him in the passing game, and he needs to avoid injury. Both of these seem like a big ask to me. Therefore, I am a lot more confident ranking him as a low-end RB1.

12. Javonte Williams (RB, DEN):

Our first love story is Williams. The young back is like that long-term crush who finally breaks up with their partner, leaving you with a “this is my time” mentality. But, right when you are about to pull the old 80's romance play, dusting off your boom box and going to their house, you get a call that they are going to try and make things work and get back together.

That’s what Williams and the Broncos did to the fantasy community when they re-signed Melvin Gordon. The love for Williams was wild, with some analysts ranking him as a top-five RB after the signing of Russell Wilson. Then Gordon came back into the mix and crushed his top-five potential.

In real football, this was a great addition for the Broncos as they made an excellent one-two punch last season. Williams will be the main guy in this duo, but last season, we saw that didn’t mean much as it was as close to a 50-50 committee as it could be. Personally, it took me a long time to see the Williams breakout with Gordon on the team.

Although I still think Gordon will frustrate fantasy managers, I'm betting on the talent and youth to dominate touches. I'll admit, I don't have the conviction of most analysts with ranking him this high, but the upside is certainly there.

13. Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL):

Zeke has been a top-10 back for four consecutive years. I'm not going to lie, that surprised me. If you rostered him last year, I imagine you feel the same. In 2021, Elliott barely cracked a thousand yards rushing even though he had the seventh-most attempts in the league. The good thing is that you can always count on Zeke for a heavy workload.

On top of his rushing work, he was tied for the seventh most targets at the position. This offense will be as potent as ever and the line is still in the top half of the league, making Zeke an excellent RB2 or low-end RB1.

There is optimism that his fantasy decline was a result of his injury last season rather than an increase in Tony Pollard's role, but either way, I’m worried his top-10 days may be coming to an end.

14. AJ Dillon (RB, GB): 

Our second love story has been picking up steam over the off-season. This hype train is full speed ahead for 2022. A train is a great analogy for Dillon, as he sits at six foot, 247lbs. Although it's always hard to compare running backs to Derrick Henry (who is an anomaly in itself), Dillon's career is weirdly similar.

After joining the league behind a very talented starter, Dillon has started to see an increase in workload and has all the skills to take over the league.

As I mentioned in my Aaron Jones breakdown, I think this offense will live and breathe through its backfield. Both backs have the chance to find double-digit touchdowns on a historically great offense. I would be fine reaching for Dillon in the fourth round as I see him outscoring many of the late second and third-round backs.

15. Leonard Fournette (RB, TB):

Much like high-waisted jeans, Fournette has had a career resurgence. From getting released by the Jaguars to becoming a Super Bowl champion, Fournette has come back from the dead. He had an excellent season in 2021, finishing as the RB6 despite barely reaching 800 rushing yards and missing three games.

He did this as a result of building Tom Brady’s trust and having the third-most targets at the position. He also did this despite scoring a pedestrian 10 touchdowns.

In this high-powered offense, with Tom Brady leading the charge, plus the removal of Ronald Jones II, Fournette could have another great season and possibly lead the league in rushing touchdowns. I am a little worried based on the news this offseason, but if he remains the guy for this team, he will be excellent for fantasy.

16. Breece Hall: (RB, NYJ):

The third love story is dynasty’s 2022 rookie darling. Hall is expected to do big things this year right out of the gate. I never thought I would say this, but the Jets seem to be going in the right direction and could give Hall some substantial upside. Coming out of college as a true all-around back, Hall will most likely dominate this backfield from Day One. However, I think pass-catching specialist Michael Carter may play a little spoiler.

Head Coach Robert Saleh comes from the 49ers, who always seem to incorporate multiple backs in their schemes. I’m not saying that this will be identical to that offense, but I do think Carter will get more touches than the fantasy community would like. In the end, on a middling offense, Hall should find a way to workload his way into RB2 territory for his rookie season.

17. David Montgomery (RB, CHI):

Usually, Montgomery gets disrespected by the fantasy community for seemingly no reason. However, this year there are some questionable vibes coming out of camp.

Last season was a lost season as he missed four games to injury and was on one of the most dysfunctional offenses in the league. Despite this, he averaged 15 fantasy points a game which over a full 17-game season would have put him as the RB-six (tied with Fournette) in 2021. His usage was also elite, with a 17-game pace of 294 carries and 55 receptions, which would have been the third and fifth most at the position respectively.

Unfortunately, I can not predict health, but this extrapolation does put his production into perspective. Although the team is still a mess, a new head coach and Justin Fields’ second year provide some hope. With no substantial additions to this offense, Montgomery is the best weapon they have.

As a result, I am willing to look past the questionable camp buzz since we know that the team trusts him as the lead back, as he jumped right into a full workload after his injury despite Khalil Herbert performing well in his absence. In the past, Montgomery has been a great fantasy weapon with a large workload, and in 2020, we finally saw some elite fantasy numbers. His workload and talent should give you the confidence to draft him as a mid-RB2.

18. Nick Chubb (RB, CLE):

You could argue that Chubb is the best pure rusher in the league. The thing is, that doesn’t help much for any PPR formats. We’ve been waiting to see that monster season from the veteran back, he just hasn’t seemed to find it yet. Over his first four years, he has eight or more rushing touchdowns each year and is a lock for nearly 200 rushing attempts.

Now with Deshaun Watson (who has a history of sexual predator behavior), under center for the second part of the season, the offense will be even better. Plus, with Brissett under center to start the season, the team should lean heavily on its backs. Despite this (much like what I say about James Conner), I think Watson's return will vulture some rushing touchdowns and ultimately limit Chubb’s exclusive rushing upside.

He’s solidly outside of my top-12 with the decrease in touchdown upside, but I have no issue with anyone who has Chubb higher. I personally am looking to shoot for a higher upside option like Saquon Barkley and his potential passing work, or the guaranteed volume of David Montgomery or Zeke, especially in PPR formats.

19. Chase Edmonds (RB, MIA):

Edmonds has slowly climbed his way up my rankings. I was very optimistic about him last season, and his RB20 production despite scoring one touchdown was very impressive. Unfortunately, his injury ruined the second half of the season and his season was lost to James Conner's fantasy resurgence.

Now, on a new team, Edmonds is back to being one of my favorite picks. He has come out and said that he chose this team based on its zone-run scheme, which he thrives in. Plus, based on the reports in camp, he is the clear lead guy. Not only do the reports show this, but the money also supports it as he is the 12th highest paid back in the league.

Despite everyone being excited for this offense with the addition of Tyreek Hill, the hype has not reached Edmonds yet. As a result, he's a great value for this season.

20. James Conner (RB, ARI):

What a resurgence from James Conner last season. The once left-for-dead Steelers’ RB went to Arizona and dominated the red zone. In 2021, Conner finished as the RB5 overall, and to make things better, Chase Edmonds is now in Miami. So, why do I have him down at 20?

After all, this is Conner’s backfield and there’s no disputing that. I think what gets overlooked is his touchdown proficiency in 2021 and Murray’s injury. It’s no surprise that his 18 touchdowns in 15 games will regress, but I think it will be more than people are expecting.

My thought process is largely due to having a fully healthy Kyler Murray. After scoring one rushing touchdown in each of the first three weeks, Murray only scored a rushing touchdown in Week 13 after that.

As a result, he had six fewer rushing touchdowns than the previous year, opening the door for Conner to have the second most carries inside the five-yard line in the league. I think with a healthy Kyler Murray and Conner’s injury history, he is one of the riskier RBs in the league. This is also why I only have him projected to play 15 games.

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