Gleyber Torres: Fantasy Baseball Champ or Chump?

Isn't it amazing how one strong fantasy season can keep a player on our radars for years? Gleyber Torres was fantastic in 2019, slashing .278/.337/.535 with 38 long balls. He was widely cited as a potential bust the next year given middling Statcast metrics and the fact that half of his production came against the hapless Orioles, but nobody saw his putrid .243/.356/.368 line 2020 line with just three homers in 160 PAs coming.

Optimism returned for 2021 with a full season ahead of him, but Torres was again terrible with a .259/.331/.356 line and nine homers over 516 PAs (and several angry sports radio calls about defense). Torres still came into the 2022 campaign as a potential sleeper with a FantasyPros ADP of around 170, and the results thus far have been inconsistent playing time and a .230/.269/.430 line with five homers. Is it time to write him off?

This author has seen Torres dropped in several leagues, so many managers seem to be answering in the affirmative. However, a closer look at his profile reveals that he may be closer to his 2019 form than he has been since 2019. If he could hit his way into a consistent role in the Yankees lineup, he may still have the upside to be a great fantasy contributor.

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Approach Change Gone Awry for Gleyber Torres?

Comparing 2019 Torres to all subsequent versions reveals that he sacrificed power for plate discipline. In 2019, he walked at a 7.9% clip with a 35.1% chase rate and 13.2 SwStr%. In 2020, he improved his BB% to 13.8 with a 25.6% chase rate and 10.6 SwStr%. His K% also improved from 21.4 K% in 2019 to 17.5% during the COVID season, though obviously his overall line was substantially worse.

The reason why was a severe loss of contact quality. In 2019, Torres averaged 92.8 mph on his fly balls with a solid 10.1% rate of Brls/BBE. Those numbers weren't spectacular, so it's easy to see why the Yankees might have asked him to try and make more contact. Unfortunately, he lost nearly two full ticks of airborne EV in 2020 with a 91.1 mph mark while his rate of Brls/BBE was more than cut in half to 3.7%. Torres was never a Statcast darling, but he went from MLB average to replacement level.

Torres seems to have tried to find a happy medium between 2019 and 2020 in 2021, but the results still didn't add up. His chase rate increased slightly to 27.5%, leading to a 9.7 BB%. Similarly, his SwStr% increased to 11.1 fueling a K% of 20.2%. His contact quality metrics improved to 92 mph of average airborne EV and a 7.8% rate of Brls/BBE, but both were below average when everyone else was hitting for power.

Back to Basics for Gleyber Torres

In 2022, Torres has a 35.9% chase rate and a 12 SwStr%, very similar to his 2019 marks of 35.1 and 13.2. It looks like he's no longer trying to improve his plate discipline (which wasn't that bad anyway), and the result has been contact quality better than his 2019 peak: 94.5 mph on airborne batted balls and a 10.6% rate of Brls/BBE. His BB% is way down at 4.6%, but that looks due for positive regression as pitchers start to respect him as a long ball threat again. Meanwhile, his 16.5 K% is outstanding.

These improvements are masked by the fact that his BABIP is only .228, but Statcast suggests that he deserves a much better fate. Between his improved contact quality and strong K% rate, Torres has an xBA of .315 and an xSLG of .600 on the season, numbers strong enough to make fantasy managers salivate from a 2B/SS. To be fair, Torres has been shifted in 75% of his PAs and has an Oppo% of zero on his grounders, so he will lose some xBA to the shift going forward.

Torres has also started elevating the ball more with a career-best 44.6 FB%. His 13.5% HR/FB isn't anything special, so Torres needs to hit a lot of flies to produce the power numbers fantasy managers expect of him. He wasn't doing that much in 2020 (38.9 FB%) or at all in 2021 (36.2%) but was above 40% in 2018 and 2019. While another drag on his BABIP, Torres maintaining this FB% would likely be a net positive for his fantasy value.

Will Gleyber Torres Play?

Torres isn't currently playing every day for the Yankees, so he'll need an increase in playing time to become a desirable fantasy option. Thankfully, that looks doable. His direct replacement at shortstop, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, is hitting an empty .277/.321/.337 with scratch defense. However, he was an atrocious defender at short last season with -7 OAA, so Torres could usurp the role if he starts hitting while Kiner-Falefa's glove regresses.

Second is also an option, especially with DJ LeMahieu spending more time at third these days. Josh Donaldson is far from the model of health and he isn't really hitting in pinstripes with a .227/.341/.400 line and four homers. The best Yankees lineup likely involves Giancarlo Stanton joining Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo in the outfield, removing Aaron Hicks from the lineup and freeing up DH for someone like Torres. There are a lot of moving parts here, with multiple configurations where Torres plays consistently.

The Gleyber Torres Verdict

Torres has to be seen as a long-term play since he isn't currently guaranteed a lineup spot, but his expected statistics suggest that he will get there somehow. The 25-year-old former top prospect is too young to write off, especially in formats with bench spots where you can stash him until it clicks. As such, Torres is a Champ for fantasy managers looking for middle infield help in the 69% of leagues he's on waivers in and likely cheap to acquire in trade right now as well.

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