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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering more free MLB betting content for you. The regular season is winding down, which creates more variables and more opportunities to gain an edge. College football can wait because I'll be watching baseball today!
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Here you can keep up with my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've got a winning record this season, going 20-18-1 on my betting picks so far, and we'll work on getting deeper in the green today. Now, let’s dig into my recommendations for September 2, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Rangers
O/U: 9.0 | Moneyline: TEX (-192)
MIN: Dallas Keuchel | TEX: Jordan Montgomery
We'll begin with a matchup between two teams in the thick of the American League playoff picture. The Twins hold a fairly comfortable lead atop the AL Central but will need to remain sharp to close out the season right. On the flip side, the Rangers have stumbled recently. After dominating the first half of the season, Texas has won just three of their last 14 games and dropped to third place in the AL West. There's an angle to exploit in this game, but we will need to drown out some recency bias.
Dallas Keuchel takes the hill for Minnesota, coming off back-to-back scoreless outings. He's made just four appearances in 2023, and while the 3.50 ERA looks solid, it is wildly deceptive. In that brief stretch, Keuchel sports a 5.51 xERA, 5.14 xFIP, .318 xBA, .445 xSLG, 7.8% strikeout rate, and .357 xwOBA. You could chalk up the ugly numbers to a small sample size, but he posted a 5.49 xERA across 14 starts in 2022 and a 6.15 xERA across 32 outings in 2021. In all likelihood, the 35-year-old Keuchel is cooked at this point of his career, and he should get exposed today.
He'll square off with a vicious Texas Rangers offense today. Their bats have gone cold recently, but the Rangers average a blistering 5.5 runs per game on the season. That includes lighting up southpaw pitchers to the tune of a 123 wRC+, .816 OPS, and a .352 wOBA. Keuchel eked out five shutout innings against the Rangers last weekend, though it would be a surprise if Texas doesn't get the better of him today.
For the Rangers, Jordan Montgomery gets the nod. The lefty is more middling than his 3.19 ERA suggests, but he's still a huge step up from Keuchel. Through 26 starts, Montgomery carries a 4.01 xERA and 4.01 xFIP. His metrics are solid, albeit not elite, across the board. Montgomery's hallmark is reliability. He's surrendered three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts.
In some respects, I believe the Twins offense is underrated. However, they're simply not as good against left-handed pitching. Minnesota sports a weak 92 wRC+ against southpaws this season, including a .701 OPS, .304 wOBA, and a 25.3% strikeout rate.
The re-introduction of Royce Lewis to the lineup has been boosted, but with Byron Buxton on a rehab assignment and Carlos Correa having a poor season, this Minnesota lineup lacks impact right-handed bats. The Rangers have a clear advantage on both sides of the ball, and I predict a decisive bounce-back victory.
Pick: Rangers -1.5 Run Line (+105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Astros
O/U: 9.0 | Moneyline: HOU (-185)
NYY: Luis Severino | HOU: Hunter Brown
We'll move on to another mismatch worth highlighting. The Houston Astros have been one of baseball's hottest teams in the second half. I disregarded recency bias in my Rangers pick, but with the Astros, the current trend feels more legitimate. Their lineup is stacked and finally living up to their name-brand value. Contrarily, the wheels have fallen off for the Yankees' 2023 season. They sit in last place of the AL East division and have no realistic shot at a wild card spot. Let's dig into why Houston should win this game handily.
Luis Severino gets the bid for the Yankees today. He's fresh off his best outing of the season, but 2023 has been, by far, his worst campaign in the majors. Severino sports a horrible 6.11 xERA through 17 appearances, including a .506 xSLG, .289 xBA, 44.9% hard-hit rate, 18.6% strikeout rate, 10.6% barrel rate, and .373 xwOBA. Even with his recent improvement, it's impossible to ignore how awful all of Severino's optics are.
He'll draw as tough a matchup as you can ask for these days. The Astros are scoring over six runs per game since the All-Star break. That 45-game stretch includes a 129 wRC+, .829 OPS, and .357 wOBA. It's possible that Jose Altuve will miss today's game after leaving last night's contest with an injury, but the rest of the Houston lineup is healthy and clicking. I can't imagine the 2023 edition of Luis Severino will win against the murderer's row of Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, and Yainer Diaz.
For the Astros, Hunter Brown takes the mound. It's been an up-and-down rookie season for Brown, but he's performed better than his 4.47 ERA suggests. Through 25 appearances, he boasts an impressive 3.32 xFIP. Brown is capable of surrendering hard contact, but a 52.9% groundball rate, mixed with a 27.1% strikeout rate, limits damage considerably. His game is still growing, though he is currently head and shoulders above Severino.
The Yankees don't present a particularly difficult matchup for Brown. Aaron Judge remains one of baseball's most intimidating hitters, but there isn't a lot of other support. New York has scored just 3.8 runs per game since the All-Star break. That includes a terrible 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .653 OPS and .290 wOBA. There are a lot of new names and inexperience in the lineup these days while the Yankees following September call-ups.
Houston has advantages all around in this spot. Above all else, I'm confident in this bet because modern-day Luis Severino simply can't compete with the Astros' lineup.
Pick: Astros -1.5 Run Line (+110) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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