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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, August 25, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 60-44-3 (+2.88 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Tigers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: DET +146
HOU: Framber Valdez | DET: Matt Manning
Solid bounce back on Monday, grabbing two wins and getting some money in our pockets. Now the weekend is here, and I'll start out in Detroit where the Astros head to town after taking a 17-1 thumping at the hands of the Red Sox on Thursday afternoon.
It'll be Framber Valdez (9-9, 3.55 ERA) taking the ball for Houston in this one. Valdez has struggled in the last couple of weeks, allowing 15 runs across his last three starts (19.2 IP). His xERA (4.50) shows signs of regression, while his xFIP (3.34) shows signs of a positive uptick. He projects to a 4.18 SIERA tonight, which isn't spectacular, but should be enough to get the job done against a Tigers lineup that projects to just a .307 wOBA against him.
The Tigers will send Matt Manning (5-4, 4.31) to the mound tonight. Unlike Valdez, the expected stats show Manning is due for some massive regression. He brings in a 5.62 xERA and 5.58 xFIP into this one, as well as a projected 5.26 SIERA. He'll take on an Astros offense that should see him really well, and project to a .347 wOBA tonight.
Maybe it's due to Valdez's recent struggles, or maybe it's due to the travel day for Houston yesterday. Nevertheless, we're getting great odds on the Astros F5 money line here, which we can get at -158 on FanDuel.
Pick: Astros F5 Moneyline (-158), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.63 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Angels @ Mets
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: NYM -140
LAA: Patrick Sandoval | NYM: Kodai Senga
I'll head down east to Queens, as the Angels come into town to take on the Mets. The Angels had as much of a let-down week as possible. Mike Trout played just one game before returning to the injured list, and they lost Shohei Ohtani (as a pitcher) to a UCL injury.
They'll send Patrick Sandoval (6-10, 4.08 ERA) to the mound tonight, though. Sandoval has had a good season thus far, but is due for some slight regression. He brings in a 4.39 xERA and 4.43 xFIP, and a projected SIERA of 4.96. He's been consistently decent of late but will face a Mets lineup that projects to a .359 wOBA against him tonight.
The Mets will give Kodai Senga (10-6, 3.19 ERA) the ball tonight. In a season full of disappointment for the Mets this season, Senga has been one of the lone bright spots. He is due for some regression, but really it's not much. A 3.68 xERA, 3.81 xFIP, and 4.08 projected SIERA show that the Mets do have the pitching advantage here. He'll look to activate the "ghost fork" against the Angels tonight, who have a projected .279 wOBA.
The bullpens are a wash here, and I think we're getting pretty solid odds on the Mets full-game money line here at -135 on DraftKings. As I mentioned before, this is a real letdown spot for the Angels. I think the Mets take care of business tonight.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (-135), DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.74 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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