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Welcome back, RotoBallers! I am Mark and this is my second season writing MLB content on RotoBaller. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks MLB games on Monday, May 30, 2022, for this Memorial Day slate! This is a slate where I am not seeing a lot of value, but I have two bets below that I like.
This article will be focused on sides and totals. I am a huge baseball fan and baseball has been my bread and butter for the last couple of decades. Hopefully, I can help you win some pizza money! I occasionally will post some ideas and picks with bets, DFS, and other things on my Twitter account. You can follow me at @Mark_Kieffer.
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Mark's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
With these articles, I am 15-24-2 overall on the season, down 3.37 units. I have been starting small and conservative because it's a long season. It has been frustratingly difficult to predict the outcome of games in part due to the ball but we have to keep grinding, it's a long season, and eventually, we will get in the black.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Atheltics
O/U: | Moneyline: HOU -179
HOU: Framber Valdez| OAK: Paul Blackburn
Framber Valdez is going against Paul Blackburn today. Paul Blackburn is pitching a little over his head. His xFIP is 3.39 compared to his 1.70 ERA and he has just a 19.5% strikeout rate. What Blackburn has going for him is that he is pitching in Oakland, which is significant. Valdez is having a good season with a 2.83 ERA and a 3.24 xFIP. Looking at the starting pitchers, they appear to be pretty even without a big advantage to either team.
While most fans think of Houston as a high-scoring team, this season they are not. They are 20th in runs scored, yet are second in ISO, and 18th in on-base percentage. Houston has power and is a threat, but is playing in a park where not a lot of home runs get hit. Oakland's offense is also bad: last in on-base percentage, 27th in runs scored, and 28th in ISO. Houston does have the edge in batting but not as large of one as one might think.
The bullpens do show a significant difference, though. Houston has the best bullpen ERA in the league, while Oakland is 17th. The most likely outcome in this game would be for it to be close while the starters are in and then Houston pulling away against the bullpen. But how likely is that? The (-179) odds imply that Houston has a 64% chance of winning... which is high for a high variance game. I am taking Oakland because the number is too good. I think Oakland has a better than 37% chance of winning the game, which is what the +165 implies.
Pick: Oakland Moneyline (+165), WynnBet Sportsbook, 0.5 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Marlins @ Rockies
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: MIA -152
MIA: Pablo Lopez | COL: Ryan Feltner
This game right here doesn't require a lot of analysis. Pablo Lopez is one of the best pitchers in the league while Ryan Feltner has 16.1 major league innings pitched in his career. Lopez is a significant advantage over Feltner in this matchup.... even in Coors Field.
The biggest difference in this game is the bullpens. Miami has the sixth-best bullpen ERA while Colorado's is the worst in the league.
Offensively, these teams are somewhat even. Miami ranks higher in ISO but Colorado has scored more runs. Colorado's on-base percentage is fifth while Miami's is 14th. Those differences are not enough for Colorado to win, as they are really not able to match Miami in two phases of the game. Miami should be a larger favorite and I will take them at this price before they go up.
Pick: Miami (-152), WynnBet Sportsbook, 0.5 units
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week!
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