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Happy Tuesday, everyone! We have reached the point where aces will make their second starts of the season while some teams are still rolling out their back end of the rotation arms. We will look to take advantage of some of those situations today in a variety of ways.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a huge part of my picks. The two bets we will talk about today are teams early this season in need of a big win today, and when superstars are put in situations like these, they usually respond. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. We will be focusing on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Twins @ Marlins
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIA -140
MIN: Kenta Maeda | MIA: Sandy Alcantara
The Marlins get the reigning NL Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara toeing the rubber, opposing Kenta Maeda, who missed all of 2022 with Tommy John. Maeda was 6-5 with a 4.66 ERA in 2021, the last full season he pitched in the big leagues. While Alcantara posted a 14-9 record with a 2.28 ERA last season. The Marlins were 20-12 in games he started and had a .625 win percentage as opposed to a .426 win percentage in games he didn't appear in.
The Marlins opened the year playing the New York Mets and played four competitive games going 1-3. While the Twins have started off hot, going 3-0 in Kansas City to open the 2023 campaign. The Twins handed it to the Marlins in game one of the series yesterday, but this is a great bounce-back spot with their Cy Young on the bump, and as we all know, pitching is everything.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline (-140) DraftKings Sportsbook, 2 units to win 1.43 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Astros
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: HOU -280
DET: Matt Manning| HOU: Framber Valdez
The Tigers opened up their three-game series in Houston with a shocking 7-6 win in extra innings last night. The game saw 13 pitchers take the mound, including six on the Tiger's side. Matt Manning gets the ball for the Tigers today after posting a 3.43 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP in 2022, his sophomore season in the big leagues. In 2021 he had a 5.80 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. The Astros team total opens up at 4.5 runs, and after yesterday's 11-inning game, the Astros will see the back end of the Tiger's rotation and bullpen. I love the over for their team total.
The Astros have hit O4.5 runs in three of five games to open the season and get one of their best matchups with a bullpen that needs a long outing from their starting pitcher. Manning has a sub-20 % K, and the Astros have too much talent on the offensive side of the ball if Manning can not get swings and misses. The top five hitters posted a +.300 wOBA in 2022, and after getting beat yesterday and their ace on the mound, this is another get-right spot.
Pick: HOU Team Total Over 4.5 (-125) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1.50 units to win 1.30 units
Alternate Pick: Single Game Parlay, HOU Team Total Over 4.5 + HOU Moneyline (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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