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It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.
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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We've already hit the ground running, going 4-0 on my betting picks so far! Now let’s dig into my recommendations for April 22, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Diamondbacks
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: SD -145
SD: Joe Musgrove | ARI: Merrill Kelly
We'll begin in Phoenix with game three of the Padres-Diamondbacks series. Shockingly, Arizona enters the day alone atop the NL West standings, carrying the only winning record in the entire division. The Saturday evening matchup figures to be competitive, with strong pitching taking the mound for both sides. Pitching is the exact reason this game is on my radar, considering the bloated over/under set at 9.5 total runs.
For San Diego, Joe Musgrove expects to make his first start of the 2023 campaign. The 30-year-old is coming off the best season of his career, posting a 2.93 ERA, 3.47 xFIP, and elite weak contact numbers, like an 86.4 MPH average exit velocity, 32.5% hard-hit rate, and 6% barrel rate. After starting the season on the IL, Musgrove appears to be fully stretched out following two minor-league rehab starts and shouldn't carry any workload restrictions into today. To their credit, the Diamondbacks are averaging 4.86 runs per game this season, but they appear to be overachievers so far, and I suspect Musgrove can speed up their due regression.
Merrill Kelly takes the hill for Diamondbacks, looking to build off a strong start to the season. Through four games, he owns a 2.53 ERA made more impressive by the caliber of his matchups – Dodgers, Dodgers, Brewers, and Cardinals. On paper, the Padres are a similarly difficult opponent, though their performance this season says otherwise. San Diego is hitting just .214 against right-handed pitching alongside a weak .693 OPS. A lineup featuring Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Juan Soto should certainly be more lethal than that, but the offensive explosion is yet to materialize. They are scoring just 3.64 runs per game in 2023, and I'll buy the slump.
Between quality arms and middling bats, I anticipate something closer to a pitchers' duel. The 9.5-run total is tied for the highest of the day, and I'm comfortable taking the under here.
Pick: Under 9.5 total runs (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Nationals @ Twins
O/U: 7 | Moneyline: MIN -285
WSN: Chad Kuhl | MIN: Pablo Lopez
My next pick is motivated by a huge mismatch at pitcher. Pablo Lopez and the AL Central-leading Twins take on a dreadful 6-13 Nationals team led by Chad Kuhl. Game one of the series went to Twins, and now game two forecast points to a similar fate.
Something has clicked with Pablo Lopez, and it doesn't appear to be a fluke. He owns a 1.73 ERA, 2.86 xFIP, .303 xSLG, 5.3% barrel rate, and 34% whiff rate through four starts. Lopez has taken a step forward in almost every way, and that includes adding two miles per hour to his fastball. The performance even landed him a four-year $73.5 million extension this past week. Further, Lopez will take on debatably the worst offense in baseball. The Nationals are scoring 3.42 runs per game, including a league-worst .578 OPS and .81 ISO against right-handed pitchers. Lopez hasn't surrendered more than two runs in any outing this season, and today's matchup is unlikely to end that streak.
On the flip side, Chad Kuhl has given up at least four earned runs in every appearance of 2023. He's accrued a horrible 8.59 ERA with a 6.73 xFIP, 92.9 MPH average exit velocity, 50% hard-hit rate, .672 xSLG, and 16% barrel rate. Kuhl has been one of the hardest-hit pitchers this season, and the sample size is validated by his similarly terrible 2022 performance. Minnesota doesn't bring the scariest lineup, but they are averaging a respectable 4.2 runs per game behind names like Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Joey Gallo, and the recent activation of Jorge Polanco. Regardless, this pick has more to do with Kuhl's vulnerability than the caliber of the Twins' bats.
If things go as planned, the Nationals will be no match for Pablo Lopez. He's off to a phenomenal start this season, and Washington is by far the worst lineup against right-handed pitching. Conversely, Chad Kuhl is surrendering nearly a run per inning. I feel confident the Twins can cover the -1.5 run spread with a decisive victory in this spot.
Pick: Twins -1.5 Run Line (-130) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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