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We have our first full traditional day of baseball today as all 30 teams play, with the earliest game starting at 6:10 ET. What a great start to the season, as the games, seem like there flying by. The sure fact that even on the East Coast, I can see the end of the West Coast games is a testament to that. We are starting to reach the point in the season we are getting to pitcher's second and third starts, which helps create sample sizes of data that are beginning to form trends. We are about two weeks away from being able to fully trust new data on adjustments these players have made through the offseason.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Twins
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: MIN -140
CWS: Lance Lynn| MIA: Pablo Lopez
Pablo Lopez has opened up the season with two dominant starts after making plenty of adjustments this offseason after his move to Minnesota. Lopez has added two MPH to his heater and a sweeper to his arsenal, which has a .000 BAA with a 60.7% whiff in two starts this season. Lopez has opened the season going 1-0 with a 0.73 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and a 36.4% K.
He faces a White Sox lineup walking wounded right now, missing Eloy Jimenez, who is on the 10-day IL. Moncada is day to day with a back injury missing yesterday's opener against the Twins. Tim Anderson left yesterday's game in the fourth inning after an awkward collision at third base. This lineup is not the potent White Sox lineup we are used to. The Twins also gave Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton days off yesterday. We will see both back today, hopefully fully rested.
White Sox starter Lance Lynn struggled in 2022 against the Twins, allowing 15 earned runs in three starts. Through two starts in 2023, Lynn is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, and a 22.9% K. The icing on the cake here is the Twins are at home, where they had a 46-35 record last season. I think we can get value on -140 early because if we see a watered-down lineup for the White Sox, which I expect, this could get up to -180. Get in while you can.
Pick: Twins Moneyline (-140) DraftKings Sportsbook, 2 units to win 1.43 units
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Mets
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: NYM -140
SD: Ryan Weathers | NYM: David Peterson
Ryan Weathers toes the rubber today against the New York Mets, and when he pitches against heavy right-hand lineups, it makes for a spot where runs tend to come in bunches. The Mets open at 4.5 runs, and I love the over for them here at home. They have scored over 4.5 runs in seven of eleven games to open the season. They have also scored 24 of their 44 runs against left-hand pitching. They have a .172 ISO and .332 wOBA against lefties as a team.
In 2022 Weathers allowed a 2.73 WHIP, .412 SLG, and .402 wOBA. In 2021 he had a 1.38 WHIP, .497 SLG, and a .356 wOBA. He doesn’t miss bats either, as he had an 18.0% K and a 14.3% K in his two stints in the big leagues. Pete Alonso (.256 ISO, .374 wOBA), Francisco Lindor (.202 ISO, .340 wOBA), and Starling Marte (.196 ISO, .368 wOBA) led the charge for the Mets against left-hand pitching, and I expect them to get on the board early and often against Weathers.
Pick: NYM Team Total Over 4.5 (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1.95 units
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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