Free Agency Winners - Running Back Risers

March 23, 2020

Phil Clark's biggest running back winners and fantasy football risers from 2020 NFL free agency. These RBs could be sleepers and undervalued draft targets.

The doldrums of the offseason have been erased by a surge of news and events that transcend sports. The state of affairs around the globe has altered our usual sports-viewing habits. But as we adapt to an evolving daily existence with severely reduced sports activity, NFL free agency has been a welcome reprieve.

Free agency has also played an integral role in reshaping the fantasy landscape, as a sizable number of players have experienced changes in destinations and expectations. This has created opportunities for some players to thrive in their new environments, while increased competition for touches will cause other players' stock to take a hit. More roster movement is looming in the weeks ahead, which will affect the decision-making of fantasy owners.

The team at RotoBaller is providing articles, rankings, and other resources that will help you plan your upcoming drafts, and manage your dynasty rosters. That includes our Free Agency Winners and Losers series that examines which players are due for a rise or decline in production. This time around we're looking at the biggest winners at the running back position.

Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals

Arizona’s usage of the transition tag on Drake precluded him from relocating to a new environment. But it also elevated him into the select group of winners during the initial phase of free agency. Not only is Drake firmly cemented as the Cardinals’ lead back, but his principal competition for touches was eliminated from the team’s backfield equation when David Johnson was traded to Houston. Drake’s distinct path toward feature back responsibilities also enhances his potential to secure a long-term deal following the career rejuvenation that he experienced with the Cardinals last season.

Before thriving as a primary back in 2019, Drake was stuck in a bad situation in Miami. He averaged 95.3 carries, 452.6 yards, and 3 touchdowns as a rusher, and 43.6 targets, 31.3 receptions, and 254 yards as a receiver from 2016-2018, while several coaching regimes underutilized him. That continued in Weeks 1-7 of last season when he manufactured 174 yards on 47 carries (6.7 attempts per game/3.6 yards-per-carry) and did not register a touchdown. He was also targeted 33 times (5.5 per game) while manufacturing 22 receptions for 174 yards.

But after Drake was traded to Arizona, his numbers improved enormously. From Weeks 9-17, he generated 814 total yards and finished at RB4 in PPR scoring. Drake was also 10^th in rushing during that sequence, tied for second among all backs with 8 rushing touchdowns. He also finished among the top seven fantasy running backs during three of his seven games in Arizona and led all backs with 303 yards during critical fantasy matchups in Weeks 15-16. His proficiency with the expanded workload (19 touches per game) convinced the Cardinals to retain him. Now he is primed for a substantial number of touches and a shot at his first full season of consistent fantasy production.

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams

The Rams avoided paying $10.5 million in guaranteed money by releasing Todd Gurley just 20 months after signing him to a four-year contract extension. This has ushered Gurley into a new phase of his career, as he will reemerge within a revamped Atlanta rushing attack. However, his departure could supply a cavernous opening that launches Henderson into a significant role. Los Angeles utilized the 70th overall pick in the 2019 draft to secure Henderson, and his enticing upside presented some intrigue for his rookie season.

But he accrued just 43 touches and was on the field for only 17% of the Ram’s offensive snaps. His acceleration and elusiveness were evident during Week 6 (6 attempts/39 yards/6.5 yards-per-carry), while he also bolted for 108 total yards on 25 touches in Weeks 7-8. But Henderson was limited to just 10 touches and 25 yards from Weeks 10-16 before an ankle issue sidelined him in Week 17. Henderson did provide a glimpse of his big-play potential despite the limited usage, and Gurley’s departure provides a chance for the second-year back to commandeer a larger role.

Henderson’s status is partially dependent upon how the Rams continue to address the running back position. He presents home run capabilities that will be desperately needed on a Ram offense that plunged from third in yards per game in 2018 (139.4) to just 26^th last season (93.7). Malcolm Brown has not demonstrated that he can be considered a viable NFL starter. This limits Henderson’s competition to running backs currently not on the roster. It will also be incumbent upon Henderson to capitalize on any opportunity that he is given. However, the release of Gurley unquestionably improves his value.

David Johnson, Houston Texans 

Johnson’s massive career downturn during 2019 included valid candidacy as the season’s biggest bust. The expectations for Johnson were extremely favorable exactly one year ago, which was underscored by his lofty ADP of 7 overall. But following a hot streak to start the season, accumulating 106 touches and averaged 102 total yards per game from Weeks 1-6, Johnson became hindered by injuries, forcing him to miss some time. When he returned to action from Week 10 on, he collected just 23 touches and averaged a minuscule 16.7 total yards per game. That nightmarish plunge in production coincided with Drake’s ability to flourish as the Cardinals’ feature back.

This embedded Johnson below Drake on Arizona’s depth chart and his plummeting value rendered him completely unusable in all lineups. However, Arizona’s decision to place a transition tag on Drake presents Johnson with a pathway toward career resurrection. He now joins a Houston rushing attack that ranked ninth during 2019 and also tied for 10th with 17 touchdowns on the ground. But Carlos Hyde and Lamar Miller have been removed from the equation, as both runners will likely be performing elsewhere. Bill O’Brien has also demonstrated his reluctance to entrust Duke Johnson with a sizable workload on a repeated basis, despite the level of elusiveness that he can provide.

Duke Johnson’s potential for explosiveness was constrained in 2019, as he was relegated to 7.9 touches per game. O’Brien opted to deploy Hyde as the Texans’ lead back in 2019 (245 attempts/15.3 per game), which is a workload that currently appears designated for Johnson. To be clear, this is not a prediction that Johnson will return to RB1 status. Because it is unlikely that he can still run with the effectiveness that he delivered earlier in his career. But the former-All-Pro has been presented with a chance to accumulate touches that would have been non-existent if he had continued to languish behind Drake in Arizona.

Jordan Howard, Miami Dolphins

Howard generated 1,313 rushing yards as a 22-year-old rookie during the 2016 regular season. He also accumulated 252 carries, averaged 5.2 yards-per-carry, eclipsed 100 yards in seven different matchups and accrued 298 yards as a receiver. However, those all remain his career highs as he enters his fifth NFL season. Howard only manufactured a combined total of 1,460 rushing yards during 2018-2019, while he failed to register a 100-yard performance or reach 30 receiving yards in 2019. 

However, Howard is still just 25-years old and now has a legitimate opportunity to halt the universal downturn of his numbers. Miami ranked dead last in rushing during 2019 while averaging only 72.3 yards per game. The Dolphins’ 3.3 yards-per-carry average also tied for the league’s lowest. Miami also registered the fewest rushing attempts among all 32 teams (349/21.8 per game), while their average of just four rushing first downs per game relegated them to 31st overall. Ryan Fitzpatrick’s team-high 243 yards for the season were also 75 more than any Dolphins back currently on the roster.

Neither Patrick Laird (2.7) nor Kalen Ballage (1.8) could lift their yards-per-carry averages to 3.0, and neither finished inside the top 70 in fantasy scoring. These substandard numbers have given Howard a sizeable runway to experience a statistical rebound as Miami's early-down and goal-line back. Howard’s minimal involvement as a receiver (31 targets/20.5 receptions/159 yards per season) underscores the need for him to perform proficiently on the ground. But he can secure a consistent role with Miami, provided that no additional competition for touches emerges in the upcoming months. That could result in 200+ attempts on top of red zone opportunities, which would supply owners with a viable RB3/flex option.

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals

The third-year back serves as a reminder that two Arizona running backs have benefitted from the exodus of David Johnson. The speculation concerning the futures of Drake and Johnson was fervent prior to free agency, as the fantasy community awaited closure to the uncertainty that surrounded both backs. But their status would also have an impact on Edmond’s relevancy. Edmonds will now function as the direct backup to Drake, with an immediate route to a sizable touch total if Drake is unavailable for any reason during the season.

Edmonds has already proven that he can be productive when given the chance, accumulating 86 total yards on 11 touches in Week 5 last season, then exploding for 150 total yards and three touchdowns in Week 7. He experienced a hamstring issue in Week 8, which kept him sidelined until Week 14. During that interval, the Cardinals had traded for Drake, who ignited when he was provided with an opportunity to operate as the team’s unchallenged feature back.

Drake will continue to handle an enormous percentage of touches, but Edmonds is capable of flourishing in Kliff Kingsbury’s attack if he ascends into an expanded role during the year. Edmonds stockpiled 5,862 rushing yards during his collegiate career (Fordham) while operating within a spread offense that was similar to the approach that Kingsbury has envisioned with the Cardinals. He also brings versatility to the attack whenever he is in the lineup. While that might not become a factor if Drake remains Arizona’s unquestioned workhorse back, Edmonds has risen to a loftier spot on the depth chart.

Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler is an unquestioned beneficiary of Melvin Gordon’s highly unsuccessful holdout during 2019. Gordon’s botched strategy has launched Ekeler into RB1 terrain entering 2020. But Jackson’s stock is also rising in the aftermath of Gordon's self-imposed exile and subsequent departure. The 23-year old Jackson accumulated 142 yards on 18 attempts (7.7 yards-per-carry) when Gordon was unavailable in 2019 (Weeks 1-3), but only accrued 58 yards on 11 attempts from Weeks 4-17.

Those September performances also served as a reminder of his encouraging outings in 2018, when he accrued 190 yards on 38 attempts (5.34 yards-per-carry) during Weeks 12-15. Jackson's involvement as a receiver has always been minimal (30 targets/24 receptions/157 yards), but that is partially a byproduct of Ekeler's sustained excellence as a dynamic pass-catching presence. 

Gordon's permanent absence should present Jackson with the opportunity to split touches with Ekeler. He should garner a snap count percentage somewhere between the 30% that he attained last September and the 49% that he registered while operating during Gordon’s 2018 injury. This places him in the fantasy radar as a potential flex option.

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