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Using the market to find discounts and deals is the fun aspect of fantasy football. While it's easier said than done, we can look at the data to find potential mispriced running backs. Though we're seeing running backs being discounted, the high-end options still go in the first two rounds, with 10 at the position compared to 12 receivers in the top 24 picks. Then, we have 21 running backs go in Rounds 3-8 compared to 31 receivers in what some would call the WR Avalanche.
Whether using an anchor running back or a Zero RB strategy, the running back in the middle rounds looks juicy. That means we should attempt to load up on running back value in this range because they appear undervalued. It's more complex than identifying players, who we might rank higher based on their ADP. However, we want to examine team and player-level data to project the potential range of outcomes.
When using the term undervalued, we're thinking of players who give us more optimism after looking into their advanced metrics and the team contexts. We'll bring you four undervalued running backs because there are multiple paths to success with these player takes. These players should help us have big wins and small losses.
James Conner - RB, ARI
71 FFPC ADP - RB20
We all have our biases, and age is one, especially in the running back position. That's the case with James Conner posting three straight seasons ranking in the top 12 in PPR/G heading into Year 8. Conner ranked 16th in EP/G in 2023 with the eighth-most fantasy points over expectation (FPOE/G), mainly via his career-best efficiency as a rusher at five yards per carry and the fourth-most rushing yards over expectation, according to Next Gen Stats.
Conner's rushing advanced metrics haven't fallen off either, with 3.5 yards after contact per attempt (No. 1) and a 21 percent evasion rate (No. 4) among running backs with 100 rush attempts. He ranked ninth in breakaway rush rate, meaning 31.6 percent of his carries went for 15 or more yards. That shows Conner can still be an explosive rusher who forces missed tackles at a high rate, which we love to see.
Conner may not garner tons of receiving opportunities, with the Cardinals ranking 23rd in running back target share, but he saw a respectable 8 percent share. If Conner showed signs of decline heading into his age-29 season, it might be easier to fade him at his ADP. However, that's not the case with high-end underlying metrics, suggesting Conner appears undervalued at his ADP.
Take the discounted price on Conner over other veteran running backs like Josh Jacobs, Alvin Kamara, and Joe Mixon. If Conner misses time, we'll want to prioritize drafting and stashing Trey Benson in the middle rounds because he checks the boxes of rushing and receiving skills, plus the tackle-breaking metrics.
Jaylen Warren - RB, PIT
84.6 FFPC ADP - RB26
Last season, Jaylen Warren had sleeper appeal, with an ADP inside the top 150 picks (143.9) since he flashed 2.6 yards after contact per attempt and a 23 percent evasion rate as a rookie in 2022. Warren followed it up with more volume and crushed the advanced metrics, with 2.4 yards before contact, 2.9 YAC/Att, and a 30 percent evasion rate. His opportunities doubled from 110 in 2022 to 222 in 2023, with a ridiculous 15 percent target share (No. 5).
Those metrics as a rusher and receiver give him an Austin Ekeler-like upside, where there's a massive ceiling if he can luck into touchdowns. Even without the touchdowns, Warren possesses the juicy skills we look for in fantasy football. Last season, the Falcons ranked fourth in running back expected points per game under Arthur Smith. That put them behind the Dolphins, Lions, and 49ers.
We know Arthur Smith loves to establish the run. That's evident in the Falcons ranking fourth in rush rate in 2023 and second in 2022. Warren fits well into Smith's offense since they feed opportunities to the running back and tight-end position. There's an argument for Najee Harris to fall in this category as an undervalued running back and Zero RB option. Prioritize Warren because it's an ideal mixture of team context, near-elite rushing metrics, and receiving skills for another step forward.
August 25 Update: Warren suffered a hamstring injury that's causing his ADP to dip, though it sounds like he might be ready for the first week of the season. At worst, Warren misses a week or two to begin the season. Buy the injury ADP dip, especially since the floor and upside remain high.
Javonte Williams - RB, DEN
102.8 FFPC ADP - RB30
There's no denying that Javonte Williams may not be the same after his knee injury. We saw his 3.42 YAC/Att and 31 percent missed tackles forced per attempt in 2021 dip to 2.71 YAC/Att and a 15.7 percent MTF/Att in 2023 combined. He showed he could make big plays with a 25.5 percent breakaway rush rate, nearly identical to his career average (25.3 percent). That means over 25 percent of his carries went for 15+ yards. Among 50 running backs with 100 carries, Williams ranked 20th in breakaway rush rate in 2023.
Under Sean Payton, the Broncos ranked second in targets per game to the running back position. Williams garnered a 13 percent target share (No. 12), edging Samaje Perine at 12 percent and Jaleel McLaughlin at 8 percent. Though we've seen his yards after the catch per reception fall to 6.4 (No. 25) in 2023 compared to 8.0 (No. 13) in 2021, we know he can fight for extra yards as a rusher and receiver.
The most brutal and partly uncontrollable part of Williams involves his inefficiency. Last season, Williams averaged -2.2 FPOE/G (No. 145) after -4.7 (No. 167) in 2022 and -0.2 (No. 109) in his rookie season. Besides the low touchdown rate, it indicates his inefficiency based on the volume. Poor efficiency can be related to the weaker team context as a whole, and we might be able to make the case for the Broncos in 2023, ranking 19th in Offensive EPA/G at -3.07.
So, why is there optimism with Williams heading into Year 4? Besides the running back targets likely fed to Williams and the backfield, he could garner more high-value touches in 2024. Williams had 65 high-value touches (44 percent), with Perine at 58 (36 percent) in 2023. McLaughlin had 36 high-value touches, accounting for 23 percent.
As a team, the Broncos ranked first in high-value touches. If Williams (and probably McLaughlin) soaks up more while projecting Perine to lose some, he'll have a higher chance to score more touchdowns and fantasy points. The downside case for Williams involves the continued inefficiency and lack of forcing missed tackles in a three-way timeshare. We're leaning toward the scenario where Williams bounces back in Year 4, though it might be a small losing bet.
Zach Charbonnet - RB, SEA
128.6 FFPC ADP - RB42
We'll want to invest in the Seahawks offense in 2024, especially at the receiver and running back positions. If we're not fond of the earlier price for Kenneth Walker III as RB17 at pick 56.2, then target Zach Charbonnet as an undervalued middle-round running back option. Last season, Walker garnered 65 percent of the team's rushing attempts, with Charbonnet at 32 percent. Meanwhile, Walker and Charbonnet matched each other with an 8 percent target share.
Charbonnet played 25 plays compared to 12 for Walker on third and fourth down, showing they prefer to use Charbonnet in the later downs. However, Walker garnered a 55 percent rush share compared to Charbonnet's 31.9 percent rush share in the red zone last season. The same trend occurred, with Walker garnering 56.8 percent of the goal-to-go rush attempts and Charbonnet at 35.1 percent. While it doesn't appear the Seahawks will change the usage patterns between the duo, Charbonnet could garner more high-value touches in the backfield if Walker misses time.
It's a small sample of 108 carries in one season, but Charbonnet's 2.6 yards after contact per attempt and 11 percent evasion rate don't pop off the page. Walker matched him in YAC/Att at 2.5 but more than doubled Charbonnet's rate of broken and missed tackles at 26 percent.
The one knock on Walker involves his boom-or-bust rushing profile since he struggles to use his designed gaps while being stuffed at the line. That's evident in Walker's 44 percent designed gap rate and 22 percent stuff rate, meaning 22 percent of his carries went for zero or fewer yards. Meanwhile, 27.8 percent of Walker's rushing yards came on explosive plays of 15 or more, ranking 14th among running backs with 50 carries.
It's minimal, but Charbonnet has been involved in the running back rotation with Walker healthy. Charbonnet handled two games without Walker last season with a hefty workload, including 16.5 rush attempts, three targets, and 13.4 PPR/G. With Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator, we're expecting the Seahawks' top-5 pass rate to remain high. That might impact Walker and Charbonnet's opportunities, especially considering the 14.4 percent target share to the Huskies running backs in 2022 and 10.5 percent in 2023.
We'll see how Grubb's offensive play-calling given the offensive personnel transfers over because we can find several similarities to the Huskies offense. Given the stability at several positions, we don't expect significant changes in the running back usage. Walker and Charbonnet have the skill sets to be lead running backs, and we'll want to make Charbonnet a priority as a backup to stash with a clear path to a significant workload if Walker misses time.
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