👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Four First Basemen Who Will Disappoint In 2016

First base is synonymous with fantasy baseball success. Every year, players look for superstar talent or cheap value throughout their draft for this all important roster spot. If the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera and Anthony Rizzo are unavailable to you, the tendency is to reach for supposed upper-tiered 1B talent. This is a list of players that are overvalued. Wait or simply pass for better value later in your draft.

Be sure to also head over to our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. This handy new rankings tool show you all of our staff rankings, player news, and 2016 player outlooks. You can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of ranks - mixed leagues, tiers, prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more. It's all in one place, and all free.

 

Overvalued First Basemen

Freddie Freeman (ATL) - ADP: 52
The Atlanta Braves slugger was an absolute stud back in 2013 when he crushed 23 HR and drove in 109 RBI. Since then, his BA, OBP, and OPS have all declined every season. The wrist injury that limited him to 118 games last season did not help matters, but his value is still widely up for discussion.

Could he repeat his ways of 2013 with a solid 2016 campaign? Absolutely. However his Atlanta Braves teammates consist of a roster on the rebuild and offer up little protection for Freeman for the time being. His K% and BB% have evened out to their norms of 12% and 20%, but his BABIP needs to continue to rise in order for his value to be back at 2013 status.

Spending a fifth round pick on Freeman seems high to me when so many other options at 1B would be safer bets. Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez look to be smarter options in that area of the draft. On the other hand, breakout potentials such as Stephen Piscotty, Wil Myers and the newly signed Pedro Alvarez can offer risky value much later without the high price tag that you will have to spend on Freeman.

 

Eric Hosmer (KC) - ADP: 36
Coming off of a World Series championship can be a beautiful thing. His .336 BABIP and .459 SLG% brought owners a surge of wealth as Hosmer provided incredible value for owners in 2016. But that value takes a nose dive this year as owners now have to spend anywhere from a third to fifth round draft pick on a 1B that has yet to eclipse the 20 HR mark or collect 100 RBI in a single MLB season.

There are plenty of players that have the following stat line: .286 BA, 17 HR, 82 RBI, .322 BABIP. Those are Hosmer's averages for his MLB tenure. Is he a clutch hitter? Yes. But clutch doesn't count for much in baseball unless it turns into tangible stats. He is probably going to level off around a .275 BA with 15 HR and 75 RBI. It is a solid line for the season, but Hosmer is more of a seventh to 10th round selection.

 

Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) - ADP: 49
Sometimes in life you hit the proverbial wall - and sometimes the wall hits you. Gonzalez fits the latter of that mold as he begins his 13th season once again in the middle of the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. In 2015, Gonzalez's consecutive 100 RBI streak was broken while his BA hung around .275, and he did not give owners much hope of it getting back near .300.

At 33 years old, the back is starting to go and the decline phase has begun. Sure the power and high contact rate are still present, but consistency was never an issue for Gonzalez. The talent around him is still strong. In order for an owners to feel comfortable taking him as a front line 1B option, those numbers can not start to taper off now.

If the BA comes back up and his power stroke returns 30 home runs again I can safely say draft him where he is projected in the fourth round. But for now, I would stick to waiting until most teams have settled on a high-tiered 1B option and scoop up Gonzalez or somebody else later in the draft.

 

Carlos Santana (CLE) - ADP: 165
It is time for roll call as to who has lost significant value for 2016.
C-Eligible: Nope
3B-Eligible: Long gone
1B-Eligible: Hanging on by a thread
DH/Util: Last resort
CI: Looking Deep aren't ya?

Santana was a player who had tremendous value and could be held onto through slumps due to his versatility. His .164 ISO left much to be desired last season while his 11 SB was pleasant surprise. He still hit 19 HR and was around his career averages for BABIP, OBP and wRC+. But he also had a .231 BA and a depressing .375 SLG%.

The thing to keep in mind on draft day for Santana is that he does walk a TON. In leagues where OBP and BB count he could be a good mine. But for 1th round value, I would sit and wait in standard leagues and see if stays on the board until later picks. He does not have to be "Everybody's Everything", he just has to hunker down and start hitting.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Conklin

Signs One-Year Deal With Lions
Rasheed Walker

Panthers Add Left Tackle Rasheed Walker on One-Year Deal
Simi Fehoko

Cardinals Re-Sign Receiver Simi Fehoko to One-Year Deal
Van Jefferson

Commanders Signing Van Jefferson on Friday
Dyami Brown

Commanders Bring Back Dyami Brown on One-Year Deal
A.J. Brown

Patriots, Rams Making "Strong Pushes" to Acquire A.J. Brown
Maxx Crosby

Plans to be "200 Percent Ready" by Training Camp
Atlanta Falcons

"No Starters Right Now" for Atlanta's Quarterback Situation
Drew Ogletree

Colts Re-Sign Drew Ogletree to One-Year Deal
L'Jarius Sneed

Titans Releasing L'Jarius Sneed on Friday
Ko Kieft

Buccaneers Re-Sign Ko Kieft for Tight End Depth
Jalen Tolbert

Signing One-Year Deal With Dolphins
Jaleel McLaughlin

Returns to Denver on One-Year Deal
Trevor Rogers

to Start on Opening Day for Orioles
Kevin Vallejos

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Josh Emmett

In Dire Need Of Victory
Gillian Robertson

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 114
Amanda Lemos

Set For Co-Main Event
Oumar Sy

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Ion Cutelaba

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Arnold Ebiketie

Reaches One-Year Deal With Eagles
Cobie Durant

Cowboys Bolster Secondary With Addition of Cobie Durant
James Pearce Jr.

Charged With Three Felonies, Misdemeanor
A.J. Brown

Rams Discussing Trade for A.J. Brown?
Ashton Jeanty

Primed for Year 2 Breakout Behind Improved Offensive Line?
Justin Jefferson

Can Justin Jefferson Rebound with New QB?
James Conner

How Far Will James Conner Fall on the Depth Chart?
J.J. McCarthy

Facing Offseason Quarterback Competition
Bez Mbeng

Signs 10-Day Contract With Utah
Maxi Kleber

Likely Out Longer with Back Injury
John Konchar

to Miss Second Straight Game
Lauri Markkanen

Not Playing Friday Against Portland
Nathan MacKinnon

Racks Up Four Points in Victory Over Kraken
Ousmane Dieng

Cut Short by Illness Thursday
Alexis Lafrenière

Alexis Lafreniere Stays Hot in Winnipeg
Jonathan Isaac

Exits Early with Knee Issue
Semyon Varlamov

Won't Return This Season
Scotty Pippen Jr.

to Undergo Season-Ending Toe Surgery
Alexander Romanov

Could Return for Playoffs
Declan Carlile

Hurt on Thursday Night
Wyatt Kaiser

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Thursday
Erik Gudbranson

Could Be an Option Saturday
Auston Matthews

Exits Game With Injury
Jimmy Snuggerud

Scores Twice Versus Carolina
Michael Misa

Delivers Multi-Point Performance on Thursday
Keyonte George

to Be Re-Evaluated in Two Weeks
Isaac Okoro

Remains Out Thursday
Ayo Dosunmu

Could Miss Second Straight Game Friday
Patrick Williams

Ruled Out Thursday
LeBron James

Returns to Action Thursday
Guerschon Yabusele

Unavailable Thursday Night
Matas Buzelis

Will Play Against Lakers
Josh Giddey

Cleared to Face Lakers
Jalen Smith

Cleared to Play Thursday
Moses Moody

to Miss Fifth Straight Game Friday
Collin Sexton

Out Thursday Against Lakers
Quinten Post

Iffy for Friday
De'Anthony Melton

Listed as Questionable for Friday
Josh Hart

May Miss Another Game Friday
Blake Snell

Around Six Weeks From Being Fully Built Up
Bobby Brink

a Game-Time Decision for Meeting with Flyers
Evander Kane

Available Against Predators
Mark Stone

a Game-Time Call Thursday
Carter Verhaeghe

Anton Lundell Won't Play Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Returns to Action Thursday
Andrew Copp

to Sit Out Two Weeks
Dylan Larkin

Ruled Out for Two Weeks
Zack Wheeler

to Face Hitters in Live Batting Practice on Saturday
Gerrit Cole

Could Pitch in a Spring Game Next Week
Matthew Boyd

Named the Cubs' Opening Day Starter
Francisco Lindor

Remains on Schedule for Opening Day
Spencer Knight

Available Thursday
William Eklund

Questionable to Play Thursday
Alex Ovechkin

Records Power-Play Assist
Lane Hutson

Extends Road Point Streak to 10 Games
Bryce Miller

Shuts Down Bullpen Due to More Oblique Discomfort
Zac Gallen

Named Arizona's Opening Day Starter
Kyle Teel

Could Miss 4-6 Weeks With Hamstring Strain
Hideki Matsuyama

Brings Strong Course History to TPC Sawgrass
Josh Hader

to Start the Year on the Injured List
Adam Scott

in Strong Form Ahead of The Players
Kyle Teel

Exits Tuesday's Game With Hamstring Injury
Rickie Fowler

on Quite the Run Heading to TPC Sawgrass
Sepp Straka

Needs to Forget What Happened Sunday at Bay Hill
Jordan Spieth

an Enigma Heading to The Players Championship
Justin Rose

Trying to Pick Up the Pieces in Florida
Maverick McNealy

Bounces Back at Arnold Palmer Invitational
Brooks Koepka

Continues His Florida Swing With Some Momentum
Nicolai Hojgaard

in Strong Form Ahead of The Players
Robert MacIntyre

a Volatile Option at The Players
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looks to Return to Top Form at The Players
Sam Burns

a High-Risk, High-Reward Option at The Players
Keegan Bradley

Hard to Trust at The Players
Xander Schauffele

Rounding into Form Heading to Players Championship
Rory McIlroy

Set to Return at Players Championship to Defend Title
Jake Knapp

Set to Return at Players Championship
Viktor Hovland

Continues Strong Start to 2026 Season
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking for Bounce-Back at Players Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Will Need to Find Putter to Compete at Players Championship
Akshay Bhatia

Continues Improving Heading to Players Championship
Merrill Kelly

Set to Make Spring Training Debut on Friday
Francisco Lindor

"100 Percent Optimistic" he Can be Ready for Opening Day
Justin Thomas

Continues Competitive Return at The Players Championship
Corbin Carroll

Set to Play in Cactus League Game on Wednesday
Kyle Stowers

to Make Grapefruit League Debut on Saturday
Hunter Greene

to be Sidelined Through July
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo, Phillies Agree on Five-Year Extension
Corbin Carroll

Could Make Spring Debut This Week
Max Holloway

Drops Decision At UFC 326
Charles Oliveira

Becomes The New BMF Champion
Caio Borralho

Bounces Back
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Rob Font

Gets Dominated
Raul Rosas Jr.

Extends His Win Streak
Michael Johnson

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Drew Dober

Knocks Out Michael Johnson
Rafael Devers

Back in Cactus League Lineup on Monday
Ryan Blaney

Earns his Second Consecutive Phoenix Cup Series Win
Christopher Bell

Falls Short of Victory Despite Dominating at Phoenix
Kyle Larson

Earns Hard-Fought Finish of Third at Phoenix
Denny Hamlin

Quietly Gains Another Top-Five Finish at Phoenix
Joey Logano

Crashes out at Phoenix Despite Strong Run
Tarik Skubal

Could Make Another Start in World Baseball Classic
Jackson Chourio

Should Return to WBC Lineup on Monday
Ryan Blaney

is Always A Top Favorite to Compete for the Win At Phoenix
Denny Hamlin

Is Denny Hamlin Worth Rostering for Phoenix?
Christopher Bell

is Likely to have Another Solid Phoenix Run
Chase Briscoe

has Plenty of Upside for DFS Lineups at Phoenix
Joey Logano

Could Dominate at Phoenix This Weekend
Chase Elliott

has Plenty of Upside for Sunday's Race at Phoenix
Chris Buescher

Is Chris Buescher Worth Rostering For Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Ross Chastain

Has Found Speed Again at Phoenix
Josh Berry

a Solid Sleeper at Phoenix
Brad Keselowski

Skips Qualifying After Practice Crash at Phoenix
Tyler Reddick

Spins in Practice at Phoenix
William Byron

Should Be a Contender at Phoenix
Kyle Larson

Is Always a Threat at Phoenix
NASCAR

Could Bubba Wallace Be Playable for Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Anthony Alfredo

Is A Favorable DFS Option In A Substitution Role At Phoenix
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF