👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Four First Basemen Who Will Disappoint In 2016

First base is synonymous with fantasy baseball success. Every year, players look for superstar talent or cheap value throughout their draft for this all important roster spot. If the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera and Anthony Rizzo are unavailable to you, the tendency is to reach for supposed upper-tiered 1B talent. This is a list of players that are overvalued. Wait or simply pass for better value later in your draft.

Be sure to also head over to our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. This handy new rankings tool show you all of our staff rankings, player news, and 2016 player outlooks. You can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of ranks - mixed leagues, tiers, prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more. It's all in one place, and all free.

 

Overvalued First Basemen

Freddie Freeman (ATL) - ADP: 52
The Atlanta Braves slugger was an absolute stud back in 2013 when he crushed 23 HR and drove in 109 RBI. Since then, his BA, OBP, and OPS have all declined every season. The wrist injury that limited him to 118 games last season did not help matters, but his value is still widely up for discussion.

Could he repeat his ways of 2013 with a solid 2016 campaign? Absolutely. However his Atlanta Braves teammates consist of a roster on the rebuild and offer up little protection for Freeman for the time being. His K% and BB% have evened out to their norms of 12% and 20%, but his BABIP needs to continue to rise in order for his value to be back at 2013 status.

Spending a fifth round pick on Freeman seems high to me when so many other options at 1B would be safer bets. Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez look to be smarter options in that area of the draft. On the other hand, breakout potentials such as Stephen Piscotty, Wil Myers and the newly signed Pedro Alvarez can offer risky value much later without the high price tag that you will have to spend on Freeman.

 

Eric Hosmer (KC) - ADP: 36
Coming off of a World Series championship can be a beautiful thing. His .336 BABIP and .459 SLG% brought owners a surge of wealth as Hosmer provided incredible value for owners in 2016. But that value takes a nose dive this year as owners now have to spend anywhere from a third to fifth round draft pick on a 1B that has yet to eclipse the 20 HR mark or collect 100 RBI in a single MLB season.

There are plenty of players that have the following stat line: .286 BA, 17 HR, 82 RBI, .322 BABIP. Those are Hosmer's averages for his MLB tenure. Is he a clutch hitter? Yes. But clutch doesn't count for much in baseball unless it turns into tangible stats. He is probably going to level off around a .275 BA with 15 HR and 75 RBI. It is a solid line for the season, but Hosmer is more of a seventh to 10th round selection.

 

Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) - ADP: 49
Sometimes in life you hit the proverbial wall - and sometimes the wall hits you. Gonzalez fits the latter of that mold as he begins his 13th season once again in the middle of the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. In 2015, Gonzalez's consecutive 100 RBI streak was broken while his BA hung around .275, and he did not give owners much hope of it getting back near .300.

At 33 years old, the back is starting to go and the decline phase has begun. Sure the power and high contact rate are still present, but consistency was never an issue for Gonzalez. The talent around him is still strong. In order for an owners to feel comfortable taking him as a front line 1B option, those numbers can not start to taper off now.

If the BA comes back up and his power stroke returns 30 home runs again I can safely say draft him where he is projected in the fourth round. But for now, I would stick to waiting until most teams have settled on a high-tiered 1B option and scoop up Gonzalez or somebody else later in the draft.

 

Carlos Santana (CLE) - ADP: 165
It is time for roll call as to who has lost significant value for 2016.
C-Eligible: Nope
3B-Eligible: Long gone
1B-Eligible: Hanging on by a thread
DH/Util: Last resort
CI: Looking Deep aren't ya?

Santana was a player who had tremendous value and could be held onto through slumps due to his versatility. His .164 ISO left much to be desired last season while his 11 SB was pleasant surprise. He still hit 19 HR and was around his career averages for BABIP, OBP and wRC+. But he also had a .231 BA and a depressing .375 SLG%.

The thing to keep in mind on draft day for Santana is that he does walk a TON. In leagues where OBP and BB count he could be a good mine. But for 1th round value, I would sit and wait in standard leagues and see if stays on the board until later picks. He does not have to be "Everybody's Everything", he just has to hunker down and start hitting.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Dalton Kincaid

Load Management a Possibility for Dalton Kincaid
J.K. Dobbins

is Fully Healthy for 2026
Jauan Jennings

49ers Acknowledge Jauan Jennings Won't Return
LeBron James

Set to Play in Cleveland Matchup
Jayson Tatum

Cleared to Play Wednesday
Neemias Queta

Returns Against Miami
De'Anthony Melton

Ruled Out Against Spurs
Kristaps Porzingis

Ruled Out Wednesday
Pascal Siakam

Expected to Suit Up Wednesday
Andrew Nembhard

Sitting Out Wednesday
Olivier-Maxence Prosper

Off Injury Report Wednesday
Ty Jerome

to Miss Fifth Straight Game
Caris LeVert

Available Tuesday Against Raptors
Miles McBride

to Suit up on Tuesday
Collin Murray-Boyles

Cleared to Play Tuesday
Marcus Sasser

is Available on Tuesday
Brandon Ingram

Returns Vs. Detroit
Ziaire Williams

Moves into Starting Five
Duncan Robinson

Active Vs. Toronto
Jalen Duren

is Back in Action on Tuesday
Tobias Harris

Available Tuesday
Marvin Bagley III

to Miss Second Straight Game
Ryan Rollins

Good to Go Tuesday
Klay Thompson

is Resting on Tuesday
Seiya Suzuki

to Begin a Rehab Assignment Soon
Simon Holmstrom

Misses Tuesday's Action
Alexandre Carrier

Out 2-4 Weeks With Upper-Body Injury
Jordan Spieth

a Horse for Course History at TPC San Antonio
Mason Lohrei

Misses Second Consecutive Game Tuesday
Tyler Myers

Unavailable Against Bruins
Robert MacIntyre

Has One Flaw to Overcome at Valero Texas Open to be a Must-Play
Michael Bunting

to Sit Out Tuesday's Game
Maverick McNealy

In Exceptional Form This Season
Michael Thorbjornsen

Playing Well But Still Searching For A Win
Hideki Matsuyama

Playing Well Heading to the Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim

Heads to Valero Texas Open For Final Tune-Up Before Masters
Nikita Kucherov

a Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Evgeni Malkin

Ready for Action Tuesday
Sam Bennett

Rejoins Panthers Lineup Tuesday
Cody Ponce

Diagnosed With ACL Sprain, to Miss "Significant Time"
Tank Dell

Uncertain for OTAs, But Expected to Play in 2026
Alvin Kamara

Saints Still Want to Address Alvin Kamara's Contract
George Pickens

Cowboys Have "Long-Term Plans" for George Pickens
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Falcons Not Ruling Out Potential Kyle Pitts Sr. Trade
Jordan James

the "Front-Runner" to be Top Backup RB
A.J. Brown

Patriots Still Not Ruling Out an A.J. Brown Trade
Aaron Rodgers

Planning to Re-Sign With Steelers?
Seattle Seahawks

Mike Washington Jr. Would Fill a Big Need for Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams

Kenyon Sadiq a Good Fit With the Rams?
Green Bay Packers

Packers to "Strip Everything Down" on Offense
Anthony Richardson Sr.

to Stay With Colts?
NFL

Ty Simpson has Visits With Cardinals, Dolphins, Browns
Aaron Rodgers

Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers Touch Base
Cameron Ward

Mechanical Tweaks are Focused on his Footwork
Jaylen Waddle

to Play the Slot And Outside
Geno Smith

Aaron Glenn Thinks Geno Smith Will Lead Jets to "Promised Land"
Mason Taylor

Jets Expecting a "Hell of a Year" From Mason Taylor
Collin Morikawa

Withdraws From Valero Texas Open
PGA

Stephan Jaegar Still Looking For Consistency at Valero Texas Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

is Red-Hot Coming to TPC San Antonio
Tony Finau

a Risky Proposition at Valero Texas Open
Ludvig Aberg

Looks to Shake Off Collapse at Valero Texas Open
Jacob deGrom

Cleared for Season Debut on Tuesday
Colt Emerson

Signs an Eight-Year Extension with Mariners
James Conner

Role Threatened in Arizona?
William Nylander

Records Four Points Against Ducks
Macklin Celebrini

Becomes Sixth Teenager With 100-Point Season
Jaden Schwartz

Could Return Tuesday
Jordan Greenway

Available Tuesday
Jake Sanderson

Remains Out Tuesday
Cutter Gauthier

Exits Early Against Maple Leafs
Cale Makar

Sustains Upper-Body Injury Monday
Patrick Rodgers

Needs to Make More Birdies in San Antonio
Sepp Straka

Seeks Opportunity in San Antonio This Weekend
Nick Taylor

Could Again Struggle at the Valero Texas Open
Keith Mitchell

Sets Up Solidly for TPC San Antonio
Jose Altuve

Tallies Four Hits, Two Homers in Big Night
Rickie Fowler

a Boom-or-Bust Option at Valero Texas Open
Nazem Kadri

Scores Twice in Blowout Victory
Anthony Mantha

has Three-Point Performance on Monday
Miguel Vargas

Hits Grand Slam, Drives in Six in Win Over Miami
Tanner Bibee

to Start on Tuesday Against Dodgers
Aliaksei Protas

Won't Play Tuesday
Pavel Mintyukov

Returns to Action Monday
Radko Gudas

Ready to Face Maple Leafs
John Klingberg

to Remain Sidelined Monday
Matt McCarty

Seeking to Play into the Weekend in San Antonio
Brian Harman

Looking to Continue Form From The Players Championship
Steven Fisk

Attempting to String Better Rounds Together at San Antonio
Luke Clanton

Still Having Rough Time Contending at Events
Max Homa

Looks to Get Back on Track at Valero Texas Open
Chase Elliott

Takes Advantage of Pit Strategies for Second Career Martinsville Win
Denny Hamlin

Dominates but Finishes Second at Martinsville
Joey Logano

Bounces Back with Third-Place Finish at Martinsville
Ty Gibbs

Gains his Fourth Top-Five Finish of the Season at Martinsville
William Byron

Scores Another Top-Five Finish at Martinsville
Joe Pyfer

Extends His Winning Streak
Israel Adesanya

Loses Fourth Consecutive Fight
Maycee Barber

Suffers Her First Knockout Loss
Alexa Grasso

Scores Highlight-Reel Knockout
Niko Price

Retires After UFC Seattle Loss
Michael Chiesa

Victorious In His Retirement Fight
Julian Erosa

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Lerryan Douglas

Scores First-Round Knockout Win In His UFC Debut
Alex Bregman

Clobbers First Two Homers in Sunday's Loss at Wrigley
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Records Five Hits, Drives in Four in Win Over Cardinals
Kyle Larson

Is Likely to Pay Off for DFS at Martinsville
Christopher Bell

Could Have Another Top-10 Performance At Martinsville
William Byron

Is A Threat to Win Again at Martinsville
Chase Elliott

is A Solid DFS Option for Martinsville Lineups
Chase Briscoe

has Plenty of Upside for DFS Lineups at Martinsville
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Unlikely to See High-Leverage Opportunities in Near Future
Jacob deGrom

Feels "Much Better," Hopeful he Can Start This Week
Ty Gibbs

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Martinsville?
Ryan Preece

Is A Solid DFS Option for Martinsville Lineups
Josh Berry

Could Josh Berry Pay Off for Tournament DFS Lineups At Martinsville?
Carson Hocevar

May be Too Inconsistent to Start in Martinsville DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering for DFS At Martinsville?
Denny Hamlin

the Favorite to Win at Martinsville
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Martinsville
Tyler Reddick

Should Come Back Down to Earth at Martinsville
Joey Logano

Will Be Strong at Martinsville
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Looking to Rebound at Martinsville
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Showing Progress, Qualifies Fifth at Martinsville
Dylan Cease

Fans 12 in Blue Jays Debut on Saturday
Andrew Vaughn

Needs Hand Surgery, Expected to be Out 4-6 Weeks
Jacob deGrom

"Confident" he Will Make his Next Start
Jacob deGrom

Scratched From Saturday's Start Due to Neck Stiffness
Jeferson Quero

Brewers Calling Up Catching Prospect Jeferson Quero
Deyvison De Los Santos

Marlins Promote Deyvison De Los Santos to Major Leagues
Shea Langeliers

Hits Two Home Runs on Opening Day
Kevin Gausman

Picks Up No-Decision But Strikes Out 11 on Opening Day
Tanner Bibee

Day-to-Day, Could Make his Next Start
Shane Baz

Orioles Agree to Five-Year Extension
Joe Pyfer

Set For UFC Seattle Main Event
Israel Adesanya

Returns At UFC Seattle
Maycee Barber

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak To Eight
Alexa Grasso

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Niko Price

In Dire Need Of Victory
Michael Chiesa

Set For Retirement Fight
Lerryan Douglas

Set For His UFC Debut
Julian Erosa

Looks To Bounce Back
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF