👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

Four First Basemen Who Will Disappoint In 2016

First base is synonymous with fantasy baseball success. Every year, players look for superstar talent or cheap value throughout their draft for this all important roster spot. If the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera and Anthony Rizzo are unavailable to you, the tendency is to reach for supposed upper-tiered 1B talent. This is a list of players that are overvalued. Wait or simply pass for better value later in your draft.

Be sure to also head over to our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. This handy new rankings tool show you all of our staff rankings, player news, and 2016 player outlooks. You can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of ranks - mixed leagues, tiers, prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more. It's all in one place, and all free.

 

Overvalued First Basemen

Freddie Freeman (ATL) - ADP: 52
The Atlanta Braves slugger was an absolute stud back in 2013 when he crushed 23 HR and drove in 109 RBI. Since then, his BA, OBP, and OPS have all declined every season. The wrist injury that limited him to 118 games last season did not help matters, but his value is still widely up for discussion.

Could he repeat his ways of 2013 with a solid 2016 campaign? Absolutely. However his Atlanta Braves teammates consist of a roster on the rebuild and offer up little protection for Freeman for the time being. His K% and BB% have evened out to their norms of 12% and 20%, but his BABIP needs to continue to rise in order for his value to be back at 2013 status.

Spending a fifth round pick on Freeman seems high to me when so many other options at 1B would be safer bets. Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez look to be smarter options in that area of the draft. On the other hand, breakout potentials such as Stephen Piscotty, Wil Myers and the newly signed Pedro Alvarez can offer risky value much later without the high price tag that you will have to spend on Freeman.

 

Eric Hosmer (KC) - ADP: 36
Coming off of a World Series championship can be a beautiful thing. His .336 BABIP and .459 SLG% brought owners a surge of wealth as Hosmer provided incredible value for owners in 2016. But that value takes a nose dive this year as owners now have to spend anywhere from a third to fifth round draft pick on a 1B that has yet to eclipse the 20 HR mark or collect 100 RBI in a single MLB season.

There are plenty of players that have the following stat line: .286 BA, 17 HR, 82 RBI, .322 BABIP. Those are Hosmer's averages for his MLB tenure. Is he a clutch hitter? Yes. But clutch doesn't count for much in baseball unless it turns into tangible stats. He is probably going to level off around a .275 BA with 15 HR and 75 RBI. It is a solid line for the season, but Hosmer is more of a seventh to 10th round selection.

 

Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) - ADP: 49
Sometimes in life you hit the proverbial wall - and sometimes the wall hits you. Gonzalez fits the latter of that mold as he begins his 13th season once again in the middle of the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. In 2015, Gonzalez's consecutive 100 RBI streak was broken while his BA hung around .275, and he did not give owners much hope of it getting back near .300.

At 33 years old, the back is starting to go and the decline phase has begun. Sure the power and high contact rate are still present, but consistency was never an issue for Gonzalez. The talent around him is still strong. In order for an owners to feel comfortable taking him as a front line 1B option, those numbers can not start to taper off now.

If the BA comes back up and his power stroke returns 30 home runs again I can safely say draft him where he is projected in the fourth round. But for now, I would stick to waiting until most teams have settled on a high-tiered 1B option and scoop up Gonzalez or somebody else later in the draft.

 

Carlos Santana (CLE) - ADP: 165
It is time for roll call as to who has lost significant value for 2016.
C-Eligible: Nope
3B-Eligible: Long gone
1B-Eligible: Hanging on by a thread
DH/Util: Last resort
CI: Looking Deep aren't ya?

Santana was a player who had tremendous value and could be held onto through slumps due to his versatility. His .164 ISO left much to be desired last season while his 11 SB was pleasant surprise. He still hit 19 HR and was around his career averages for BABIP, OBP and wRC+. But he also had a .231 BA and a depressing .375 SLG%.

The thing to keep in mind on draft day for Santana is that he does walk a TON. In leagues where OBP and BB count he could be a good mine. But for 1th round value, I would sit and wait in standard leagues and see if stays on the board until later picks. He does not have to be "Everybody's Everything", he just has to hunker down and start hitting.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 50% Now
Import Your Leagues
Props Tool
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Seguin

Expects to Be Ready for Training Camp
Sam Carrick

Could Practice Tuesday
Alexander Nikishin

Won't Play Monday
Jeremy Lauzon

Expected to Miss Round 2
William Karlsson

Rejoins Golden Knights Lineup Monday
Jackson Chourio

Brewers Reinstate Jackson Chourio From the Injured List
Malachi Fields

Could be "Power Forward" at Wide Receiver
Fernando Mendoza

Working on Playing Under Center
Cleveland Browns

Browns Not Naming a Leader in the QB Battle
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Reports for Voluntary Offseason Workouts
Aaron Rodgers

Steelers Losing Patience With Aaron Rodgers?
Skylar Thompson

Ravens Expected to Sign Skylar Thompson
DJ Giddens

Can DJ Giddens Re-Establish His Dynasty Value After Underwhelming Rookie Season?
Desmond Ridder

Packers Sign Tyrod Taylor, Release Desmond Ridder
AJ Barner

a Prime Regression Candidate Entering 2026
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Elbow Surgery
Cedric Tillman

Losing Dynasty Value in Cleveland Following NFL Draft
Josh Jacobs

Should Dynasty Managers Consider Selling High on Josh Jacobs?
Xavier Legette

Dynasty Stock at an All-Time Low Entering 2026
Chase Elliott

Earns his Second Texas Motor Speedway Victory
Denny Hamlin

Misses Out on Winning at Texas
Alex Bowman

Finishes Third for the Second Week in a Row at Texas
Tyler Reddick

Earns Seventh Top-Five Finish of the Season at Texas
Chris Buescher

Scores his First Career Texas Finish in the Top Five
Rashod Bateman

Droppable in Many Dynasty Leagues
Mark Andrews

Should Dynasty Managers Hold Mark Andrews Until Midseason?
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Can Maintain Fantasy Relevance When Teammate Returns
Chimere Dike

Trending Down Despite Solid Rookie Season?
Jameson Williams

Needs to Show More Consistency in Clearly Defined Role
CFB

Bryce Underwood in Better Situation Entering Sophomore Season
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Emerging as Leader, Playmaker for UCLA
Raisel Iglesias

to be Activated on Tuesday
Orlando Magic

Jamahl Mosley Out as Magic Head Coach
Chase Brown

Stock Back on the Rise After Surviving Another Offseason
Scottie Barnes

Caps Season with Efficient Game 7 Showing
Donovan Mitchell

Finishes with 22 Points in Deciding Game
J.K. Dobbins

a Depreciating Dynasty Asset
Jarrett Allen

Leads Frontcourt Effort with 19 Rebounds
C.J. Stroud

Can C.J. Stroud End His Dynasty Slide?
Paolo Banchero

Carries Offense in Game 7 Defeat
Jalen Duren

Posts 15-15 Line in Game 7 Win
Parker Washington

Still Undervalued Despite Proven Upside
Tobias Harris

Stays Hot with 30 Points in Win
Cade Cunningham

Shines as Pistons Advance to Semifinals
Jack Della Maddalena

Gets Dominated At UFC Perth
Carlos Prates

Shines At UFC Perth
Jakub Dobes

Backstops Canadiens to Game 7 Victory
Beneil Dariush

Suffers A First-Round TKO Loss
Quillan Salkilld

Remains Unbeaten In The UFC
Quinn Hughes

Takes Over Postseason Scoring Lead With Three-Point Effort
Cale Makar

Shakes Off Injury to Collect Three Points in Game 1
Owen Tippett

a Game-Time Decision Monday
Logan Stanley

Practices Fully Sunday
Sam Carrick

Will Miss Second-Round Matchup
Tim Elliott

Drops Decision At UFC Perth
Noah Ostlund

Expected to Miss Round 2
Steve Erceg

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Ollie Schmid

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Marwan Rahiki

Remains Unbeaten
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote No. 1-Ranked Prospect Bryce Eldridge to MLB Roster
Jonas Brodin

Out for Games 1 and 2 Against Colorado
Joel Eriksson Ek

Will Miss First Two Games of Colorado Series
Joel Kiviranta

Remains Out of the Lineup Versus Minnesota
Anthony Volpe

Reinstated From Injured List, Optioned to Triple-A
Josh Manson

Out for Game 1 Against Minnesota
Carter Bryant

Iffy for Game 1 Against Timberwolves
Joel Embiid

Considered Probable for Monday
Kyle Anderson

Available for Round 2 Opener
Ayo Dosunmu

Tagged as Questionable on Injury Report
Anthony Edwards

Listed as Questionable for Game 1 Against Spurs
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Unavailable for Start of Round 2, Considered Week-to-Week
Brandon Ingram

Won't Play in Game 7 Against Cavaliers
Ranger Suarez

Exits Sunday's Start With Hamstring Tightness
Agustín Ramírez

Marlins Demote Agustin Ramirez to Triple-A
Victor Hedman

Will Not Play Sunday Versus Montreal
Noah Dobson

Will Play Against Tampa Bay on Sunday
Ben Rice

Exits Sunday's Contest With Left-Hand Contusion
Kevin Huerter

is Out for Game 7
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Could be Done in Boston
Christopher Bell

Is Christopher Bell Worth Rostering for Texas Lineups?
Cal Raleigh

Considered Day-to-Day With Soreness in his Side
Brandon Ingram

is Downgraded to Doubtful for Game 7
William Byron

Might have the Speed to Compete for the Win at Texas
Jonathan Isaac

Remains Out for Game 7
Joey Logano

Provides Solid Upside for Texas DFS Lineups
Joe Ryan

Exits Early From Start on Sunday Due to Elbow Soreness
Chase Briscoe

Could Chase Briscoe be A Sneaky Pick for Texas Lineups?
Ty Gibbs

Should DFS Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Texas?
Daniel Suarez

Is Daniel Suarez Worth Rostering After Career-Best Starting Position at Texas?
Daniel Palencia

Cubs Reinstate Daniel Palencia From the Injured List on Sunday
Kyle Busch

Is a DFS Risk Starting in the Top 10 at Texas
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Braves Place Ronald Acuna Jr. on Injured List With Strained Hamstring
Nick Lodolo

Expected to Make Season Debut on Friday
Tyler Reddick

One of the Favorites to Win at Texas
Chase Elliott

Could Contend for Another Win at Texas
Carson Hocevar

on Pole at Texas
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wrecks in Practice at Texas
Chris Buescher

Looking to Continue Strong Run at Texas
Austin Dillon

Blows Engine in Practice at Texas
Derrick White

Delivers All-Around Line in Game 7 Loss
Neemias Queta

Finishes with Double-Double in Playoff Loss
Mike Reilly

Delivers Two Assists in Game 1 Win
Logan Stankoven

Establishes New Franchise Record With Five-Game Goal Streak
Frederik Andersen

Records Second Postseason Shutout
Cal Raleigh

Scratched From Lineup, No Reason Given
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Exits With Left-Hamstring Tightness
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Leaves With Side Tightness, Considered Day-to-Day
Jacob Misiorowski

Leaves Start Early on Friday With Hamstring Cramp
Brandon Nimmo

Aggravates Hamstring, Pulled Early on Friday
Ryan Helsley

Placed on Injured List With Elbow Inflammation
Ryan Pepiot

to Miss the Rest of the Season, Scheduled for Hip Surgery
Brandon Woodruff

Goes on Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation
Jack Della Maddalena

Returns At UFC Perth
Carlos Prates

Set For UFC Perth Main Event
Quillan Salkilld

Set For Co-Main Event
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC Perth
Steve Erceg

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Tim Elliott

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Ollie Schmid

Set For His UFC Debut
Marwan Rahiki

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Gary Woodland

Riding Momentum Into Cadillac Championship
Jordan Spieth

Brings Boom-or-Bust Potential to Cadillac Championship
Adam Scott

Looks Poised for Another Strong Finish at Doral
Maverick McNealy

Needs Approach Game to Click at Doral
CFB

Jameson Williams Files Lawsuit Against NCAA, SEC, Big Ten
Harry Hall

Volatility Continues at Cadillac Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Looks to Rebound at Trump National Doral
Pierceson Coody

a Risky Value Play at Cadillac Championship
Akshay Bhatia

Offers Upside with Risk at Cadillac Championship
Justin Thomas

a Scary Proposition at Cadillac Championship
Scottie Scheffler

The Leading Favorite at Cadillac Championship
Collin Morikawa

Still a Smash Play at Cadillac Championship
Viktor Hovland

Showed at Augusta He Can Finish Well
Sepp Straka

Attempting to Finish Better in Miami
PGA

J.J Spaun Enduring Roller Coaster Start to 2026
Min Woo Lee

Seeks to Make Adjustments at Cadillac Championship
Max Homa

May Struggle at Old Doral This Weekend
Ben Griffin

Rebounds From Rough Stretch as Miami Looms
Shane Lowry

Searching For Answers at Cadillac Championship
Russell Henley

Daunting Test at Doral Likely Not a Place For Russell Henley
Justin Rose

Returns to Action After Finishing Third at Masters Tournament
Hideki Matsuyama

Has The Approach Game to Win at Cadillac Championship
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF