👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Four First Basemen Who Will Disappoint In 2016

First base is synonymous with fantasy baseball success. Every year, players look for superstar talent or cheap value throughout their draft for this all important roster spot. If the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera and Anthony Rizzo are unavailable to you, the tendency is to reach for supposed upper-tiered 1B talent. This is a list of players that are overvalued. Wait or simply pass for better value later in your draft.

Be sure to also head over to our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. This handy new rankings tool show you all of our staff rankings, player news, and 2016 player outlooks. You can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of ranks - mixed leagues, tiers, prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more. It's all in one place, and all free.

 

Overvalued First Basemen

Freddie Freeman (ATL) - ADP: 52
The Atlanta Braves slugger was an absolute stud back in 2013 when he crushed 23 HR and drove in 109 RBI. Since then, his BA, OBP, and OPS have all declined every season. The wrist injury that limited him to 118 games last season did not help matters, but his value is still widely up for discussion.

Could he repeat his ways of 2013 with a solid 2016 campaign? Absolutely. However his Atlanta Braves teammates consist of a roster on the rebuild and offer up little protection for Freeman for the time being. His K% and BB% have evened out to their norms of 12% and 20%, but his BABIP needs to continue to rise in order for his value to be back at 2013 status.

Spending a fifth round pick on Freeman seems high to me when so many other options at 1B would be safer bets. Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez look to be smarter options in that area of the draft. On the other hand, breakout potentials such as Stephen Piscotty, Wil Myers and the newly signed Pedro Alvarez can offer risky value much later without the high price tag that you will have to spend on Freeman.

 

Eric Hosmer (KC) - ADP: 36
Coming off of a World Series championship can be a beautiful thing. His .336 BABIP and .459 SLG% brought owners a surge of wealth as Hosmer provided incredible value for owners in 2016. But that value takes a nose dive this year as owners now have to spend anywhere from a third to fifth round draft pick on a 1B that has yet to eclipse the 20 HR mark or collect 100 RBI in a single MLB season.

There are plenty of players that have the following stat line: .286 BA, 17 HR, 82 RBI, .322 BABIP. Those are Hosmer's averages for his MLB tenure. Is he a clutch hitter? Yes. But clutch doesn't count for much in baseball unless it turns into tangible stats. He is probably going to level off around a .275 BA with 15 HR and 75 RBI. It is a solid line for the season, but Hosmer is more of a seventh to 10th round selection.

 

Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) - ADP: 49
Sometimes in life you hit the proverbial wall - and sometimes the wall hits you. Gonzalez fits the latter of that mold as he begins his 13th season once again in the middle of the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. In 2015, Gonzalez's consecutive 100 RBI streak was broken while his BA hung around .275, and he did not give owners much hope of it getting back near .300.

At 33 years old, the back is starting to go and the decline phase has begun. Sure the power and high contact rate are still present, but consistency was never an issue for Gonzalez. The talent around him is still strong. In order for an owners to feel comfortable taking him as a front line 1B option, those numbers can not start to taper off now.

If the BA comes back up and his power stroke returns 30 home runs again I can safely say draft him where he is projected in the fourth round. But for now, I would stick to waiting until most teams have settled on a high-tiered 1B option and scoop up Gonzalez or somebody else later in the draft.

 

Carlos Santana (CLE) - ADP: 165
It is time for roll call as to who has lost significant value for 2016.
C-Eligible: Nope
3B-Eligible: Long gone
1B-Eligible: Hanging on by a thread
DH/Util: Last resort
CI: Looking Deep aren't ya?

Santana was a player who had tremendous value and could be held onto through slumps due to his versatility. His .164 ISO left much to be desired last season while his 11 SB was pleasant surprise. He still hit 19 HR and was around his career averages for BABIP, OBP and wRC+. But he also had a .231 BA and a depressing .375 SLG%.

The thing to keep in mind on draft day for Santana is that he does walk a TON. In leagues where OBP and BB count he could be a good mine. But for 1th round value, I would sit and wait in standard leagues and see if stays on the board until later picks. He does not have to be "Everybody's Everything", he just has to hunker down and start hitting.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Andrew Vaughn

Needs Hand Surgery, Expected to be Out 4-6 Weeks
Jacob deGrom

"Confident" he Will Make his Next Start
Trey Benson

Facing Uphill Battle for Playing Time in Arizona
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Can Jacory Croskey-Merritt Emerge as the Clear RB1 in Washington?
Lamar Jackson

Looking for Return to Full Health in 2026
Sean Tucker

Remains Buried on Buccaneers' Running Back Depth Chart
Jake Tonges

Appears Likely to Enter 2026 Atop 49ers' Tight End Depth Chart
NFL

Can Ja'Kobi Lane Carve Out a Fantasy-Relevant Role as a Rookie?
Chig Okonkwo

Instantly Jumping to Fantasy Relevance in Washington?
Aaron Jones Sr.

Set for Familiar Role in 2026?
Brandon Aiyuk

a Buy-Low Candidate in Dynasty Leagues?
Romeo Doubs

the New No. 1 Target in New England?
Daniel Jones

a QB1 if Ready for Season Opener?
Jacob deGrom

Scratched From Saturday's Start Due to Neck Stiffness
Jeferson Quero

Brewers Calling Up Catching Prospect Jeferson Quero
Josh Allen

Still the Top Dog at QB in Fantasy
Jared Goff

Should Have Safe Floor as QB1 Again Under New Offensive Coordinator
Jacoby Brissett

Will Jacoby Brissett be on the Streaming Radar Again in 2026?
NFL

Kaytron Allen Should Attract Plenty of Interest in 2026 NFL Draft
NFL

Makai Lemon a Polarizing Receiver Prospect Heading into This Year's Draft
David Pastrnak

Riding 11-Game Point Streak
John Gibson

Gets Back on Track Friday
J.T. Miller

Bags Three Points Against Blackhawks
Tage Thompson

Picks Up 400th Career Point
Patrick Kane

Collects Two Points in Friday's Win
Nick Lardis

Pots Another Goal Friday Night
Shayne Gostisbehere

Could Be an Option Saturday
Nique Clifford

Could Return Saturday
Marcus Sasser

Probable Saturday
Caris LeVert

on Track to Return Saturday
Deyvison De Los Santos

Marlins Promote Deyvison De Los Santos to Major Leagues
Duncan Robinson

Listed as Questionable for Saturday
Ayo Dosunmu

Questionable to Play Saturday
Myles Turner

Iffy for Saturday
Kyle Kuzma

Questionable Saturday
Moritz Seider

Assists on Two Goals Against the Sabres
Shea Langeliers

Hits Two Home Runs on Opening Day
Kevin Gausman

Picks Up No-Decision But Strikes Out 11 on Opening Day
Mac Jones

Boosts his Dynasty Stock With Solid First Year in San Fran
Alex DeBrincat

Picks Up Three Points Versus Buffalo
Bobby Portis

May Miss Another Game Saturday
Tez Johnson

Could be Buried on the Depth Chart Again in Sophomore Season
Kevin Porter Jr.

Unavailable Against Spurs
Ka'imi Fairbairn

One of the NFL's Best Kickers Heading into His 10th Season
De'Aaron Fox

to Return to Action Saturday
Isaiah Jackson

Exits Early Friday
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Ready to Return Saturday
Michael Penix Jr.

Falcons Think Michael Penix Jr. Will be Healthy "At Some Point" in Training Camp
Al Horford

to Be Re-Evaluated in One Week
Vít Krejčí

Vit Krejci Remains Sidelined Friday
Robert Williams III

Will Suit Up Friday
Khris Middleton

Sits Out Friday's Game
Tre Johnson

Back From Three-Game Absence Friday
Isiah Pacheco

Can Isiah Pacheco Bounce Back in RB2 Role in Detroit?
Jarace Walker

Won't Return Friday
Tristan Vukcevic

Active Friday Night
Tanner Bibee

Day-to-Day, Could Make his Next Start
Alexandre Sarr

Returns to Action Friday
Ausar Thompson

Questionable Against Minnesota
Dylan Garand

Starts Friday
Noah Ostlund

Won't Play Friday
Connor Zary

Returns to Practice
Samuel Honzek

Won't Return This Season
Damon Severson

Labeled Week-to-Week
Sam Steel

Leaves Road Trip Due to Injury
Mikko Rantanen

Could Return Saturday
Shane Baz

Orioles Agree to Five-Year Extension
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Making Season Debut on Friday Against Angels
Tiger Woods

Involved In Rollover Car Crash
Tanner Bibee

Shoulder Issue Not Considered Serious
Barrett Hayton

Out Week-to-Week
Tony DeAngelo

to Miss 1-2 Weeks
Sam Steel

Makes Early Exit Against Islanders
Damon Severson

Exits With Upper-Body Injury Thursday
Joe Pyfer

Set For UFC Seattle Main Event
Yaroslav Askarov

Suffers New Injury Blow
Israel Adesanya

Returns At UFC Seattle
Maycee Barber

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak To Eight
Alexa Grasso

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Dominic Canzone

a Top Pickup After Two-Homer Game
Niko Price

In Dire Need Of Victory
Michael Chiesa

Set For Retirement Fight
Chase DeLauter

Launches Two Home Runs, Emerges as Top Waiver-Wire Target
Lerryan Douglas

Set For His UFC Debut
Julian Erosa

Looks To Bounce Back
Tanner Bibee

Leaves Opening Day Start Early With Shoulder Inflammation
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Makes a Statement on Opening Day With 10 Strikeouts
Kevin McGonigle

has Four Hits in Impressive MLB Debut
Nico Hoerner

Cubs Agree to Six-Year Deal With Nico Hoerner
Jacob Misiorowski

Shows Off his High-Strikeout Upside in Opening Day Win
Paul Skenes

Greeted Harshly by Mets on Opening Day
Brandon Lowe

Hits Two Home Runs on Opening Day
Ketel Marte

Active, Leading Off on Opening Day
Ryan Fox

a High-Upside Value in Houston
Marco Penge

a Boom-or-Bust Option in Houston
Aaron Rai

Looks to Bounce Back in Houston
Jason Day

a Volatile Option at the Texas Children's Houston Open
Harris English

Eyes a Bounce-Back at the Texas Children's Houston Open
Ben Griffin

Looks for Turnaround at the Texas Children's Houston Open
Rickie Fowler

Brings Strong Form Into Texas Children's Houston Open
Ryan Gerard

Can Continue Rolling at Texas Children's Houston Open
Pierceson Coody

Bounces Back at Valspar Championship
Rasmus Hojgaard

Trying to Get Back on Track at Texas Children's Houston Open
Michael Thorbjornsen

Playing Well Heading to Texas Children's Houston Open
Harry Hall

Looking for Consistency at Texas Children's Houston Open
Brooks Koepka

Continues Building Momentum
Scottie Scheffler

Withdraws From Texas Children's Houston Open
Luke Clanton

Might Have a Problem in Houston
Sam Stevens

Happy to See Houston This Week
Keith Mitchell

Tries to Rebound After The Players Championship
Will Zalatoris

Returning This Week at Houston
Wyndham Clark

Trending in the Wrong Direction Heading to Houston
Shane Lowry

Seeking Better Luck in Houston This Weekend
Lerone Murphy

Suffers His First Loss
Movsar Evloev

Edges Out Lerone Murphy
CFB

Notre Dame Ranks No. 1 in Returning Production for 2026
Michael Aswell

Jr. Drops Decision At UFC London
Michael Aswell

Luke Riley Outclasses Michael Aswell Jr.
Sam Patterson

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Michael Page

Wins Lackluster Decision
Austen Lane

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Iwo Baraniewski

Delivers 28-Second TKO
Tyler Reddick

Overcomes Adversity for Fourth Victory of the Season At Darlington
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Darlington Victory Despite Domination
Ryan Blaney

Recovers From Pit-Road Struggles to Score Career-Best Darlington Finish
Carson Hocevar

Rallies to Finish Fourth at Darlington
Kyle Larson

Decent Performance Ends with Technical Issues At Darlington
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF