RADIO
Fundamentally, baseball is about contact. Perhaps we should ask ourselves, who has improved at this most essential skill?
In collecting the data of qualifying players, I contrasted contact rate in 2014 with the current season. Adjacent to difference in contact rate, I compared wRC+ over the same time, and calculated the difference to determine a correlation to their offensive value. Adam Jones, whose contact rate has improved by 6.4%, is leading the league. He's followed by Marcell Ozuna at 5.0%. These two players offer a convenient segue for me into the problems encountered when looking into contact rate as an indicator for a player’s performance.
Both Jones and Ozuna have better plate discipline this year. They have improved their strikeout rates and their averages have jumped as a result. However, when we look a bit deeper there is a disparity to investigate. While Jones is on his way to a career year in wRC+, up 13 points, Ozuna has seen his plummet below 100, down 16 points. Following up on this, I found that three of the top 10, and nine of the top 25 in increased contact rate percentage have seen a decline in wRC+ this season.
Now, this can be confusing to a degree, but I do believe there is something to be learned about these players here. As we agreed above, contact is fundamental. It is also important to note that contact rate most strongly correlates with strikeouts and home runs. If we dive a bit further, we can excavate some conclusions. Of the players noted who currently sit in the negative, excluding Ozuna, they are either hovering at or are far below a BABIP of .300. They are also experiencing lower strikeout rates. This can indicate that with better luck their seasons may improve.
I still feel confident about Ozuna. Coming into this season he was a favorite among many to have a breakout year, and it is still possible. His walk to strikeout ratio is at a career high and he is spreading the ball around more. Over his past 15 games his contact rate has increased further and he is posting a .327/.373/.436 with a .322 wOBA and 109 wRC+. His numbers are pointing to a career year. If the breakout is coming, now would be the time to buy low.
Four Contact Rate Targets
Yasmani Grandal C, LAD (Contact% +7.9)
With all of the talk about the Cubans coming to town this offseason, we seem to have forgotten about the ones already here. Naturalized and all. Grandal has now officially taken over catcher duty and sports a .277/.386/.477. He is batting in a Dodger lineup sitting second in the league in HR, BB, OBP, SLG, wOBA, wRC+ and WAR. A lineup that just recently saw the return of Yasiel Puig. His position leading 146 wRC+ is higher than Kris Bryant’s. I don’t see a hype train coming through here, but I do see an ownership rate hovering around 50%. That’s too low.
Michael Brantley OF, CLE (Contact% +1.6)
As deep as outfield is, sometimes the consistent ones get lost in the shuffle. Brantley has been dealing with some back issues to start this season, but he is poised to be a top outfielder the rest of the way. Yes, Brantley’s major stat categories are slumping below last year’s numbers, but his plate discipline has improved as he has doubled his walk to strikeout ratio. That is helped by a league low 2.8% swinging strike rate, which is quite impressive. Especially when you take into account his batted balls in play rate of 70%. That is league leading and 13 points ahead of second place. Oh yeah, he also leads the league with a 92.7% contact rate. With a little faith, Brantley could pay off with high dividends. At the very least he is a solid foundation to your lineup.
Xander Bogaerts SS, ATL (Contact% +4.1)
Shortstop is shallow. We are all well aware. But the youth is on its way up and emerging into a presence. We shouldn’t let the likes of Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor blind us, as Mr. Bogaerts is rounding into his own.
After having recently flirted with batting .300, he now sits at a respectable .288/.328/.394. His wOBA has leapt up, along with an increase of 17 points in wRC+. His rookie season was a bit of a disappointment, but his spray chart is encouraging. Bogaerts is now spreading the ball around, with the highest increase of balls in play to the opposite field over the past two seasons. This has been helped by his approach to swing more often at balls on and off the plate. This is an adjustment against the low and away slider he struggled with mightily last season. It is great to see a young player making adjustments of this nature. While it has caused a drop in his ISO so far, it bodes well for his future.
Lucas Duda 1B, NYM (Contact% +3.7)
A long time coming for Mets fans, Duda finally busted out last year, with 30 HRs and 92 RBI. He was able to play to this level even with a flailing .180 average against lefties. Instead of celebrating a career year, it was back to work for Duda. Having benefitted from a hard work ethic and being around the likes of Keith Hernandez and Kevin Long this offseason, Duda is now hitting .349 with a 1.033 OPS and 191 wRC+ against lefties. He is also no longer a dead pull hitter, as he is spraying the ball around the field at higher rates while increasing his line drive rate by 10%. Duda is morphing into a star. Before our eyes. In New York. Take notice.
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