X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Florio's Players To Fade for Fantasy Football Best Ball Drafts Include Rachaad White, Najee Harris, Isiah Pacheco, Michael Pittman, more

Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Michael F. Florio's must-avoid fantasy football draft picks for 2023 best ball formats. These are his potential busts and overvalued players for 2023 best ball.

Fantasy football best ball drafts and contests continue to grow and grow each year. There was a time when even fantasy analysts hadn’t heard of best ball leagues, and there was only one site you could play them on. Nowadays, you can’t log onto Twitter without seeing screenshots of teams and more talk about the strategy to win these leagues. 

But before you can win these leagues, you need to understand the format. Even more than that, you need to know the players to target and those to avoid. Best ball is a format where you draft a team and let it play out. No trades, no pickups, and no setting lineups. Each week, your optimal lineup is set. This means whoever scores the most points on your team is added until you have a full lineup. Each week, your score is added up. Whoever scores the most at the end of the season wins. 

Best ball is a format that rewards high-scoring players, meaning you want to chase upside. Not just yearly upside, but weekly as well. A big week will have a greater impact on your end-of-season scores. While you know to target upside, what players should you avoid in this format?

Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.

 

Type of Players to Avoid in Best Ball 

Before I tell you the specific players to avoid, I should tell you the types of players to avoid. Since best ball is a format that automatically sets your optimal lineup each week, your goal is to score as many points as possible in any given week. Unlike in redraft where the key is consistency, an inconsistent player can be better suited in this format. The games where that player goes off -- we will call them spike weeks -- are more useful throughout the season. 

In redraft, you may find it useful and certainly less stressful to have a player that can score 10 to 12 fantasy points in a given week. Chances are in best ball that player will be outscored by others on your roster more often than not. It's not a bad idea to have one or two safe options just in case. But be sure not to overdo it. The last thing you want is to lower your team's upside and chances of having a really high-scoring week. Those are the kinds of players you want to let others draft in this format. 

 

Quarterbacks to Fade in Best Ball 

The thing with quarterbacks in best ball is it is hard to find some to fade. There are only 32 starters at the position, and every team in the draft is going to draft multiple. That means that, at the very least, 24 will be drafted. But it likely ends up being more. Everyone is in play to be drafted. However, you want to prioritize QBs that can run. They will give you the most upside and potential to find those high-scoring spike weeks.

What you want to avoid is QBs who do not run but will also not put up large passing volume. An example of a QB like that from last season would be some all-time greats in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Brady topped 20 fantasy points just twice, while Rodgers did not top that number at all. A QB who rarely tops 20 fantasy points does not do you a whole lot of good in a format where you try to maximize scores each week. Safe floor QBs have a role in redraft, but they hold you back in best ball. 

Aaron Rodgers is not a QB I have drafted much, if at all, yet this season. Not only did he fail to top 20 fantasy points last year, but he averaged a career-low 14.1 fantasy PPG. He topped 260 passing yards just once, the same number of times he threw more than two touchdowns. He also threw his most interceptions since 2008 (12). Perhaps this was due to the thumb injury and losing Davante Adams. But there’s a chance it was Father Time rearing his ugly head.

His passing numbers could improve with the Jets, but he is never going to start running all of a sudden. He is a safe QB2, but in best ball, there are targets with more upside to chase. 

Derek Carr averaged 14.6 fantasy PPG last season and topped 20 fantasy points just twice. He has thrown a career-high 14 interceptions in each of the last two seasons. Last season, he averaged 234.8 yards per game, his fewest since 2017. Plus, he has finished a season as a QB1 just once. So he does not bring a ton of seasonal upside, has decreasing passing numbers, and won’t run to make up for it. That means he brings a low weekly floor and will not provide many spike weeks. Let someone else draft Carr. 

 

Running Backs to Fade in Best Ball

Najee Harris was the RB14 overall and RB20 in fantasy PPG last season. But those who rostered Harris know it was a rough go. He topped 16 fantasy points only twice -- the same number of times he finished as a top-10 fantasy RB and topped 100 yards. Harris saw his workload in the passing game dramatically drop as the Steelers now have a more mobile QB in Kenny Pickett compared to when the statue of Ben Roethlisberger was there.

Harris also struggled to post many breakaway runs. It's not exactly what you want to see in an RB who goes off the board close to an RB1. Harris is extremely volume dependent, and I do not want to spend an early-round pick on that kind of player. 

Alexander Mattison is a back that is an easy fade for me this season. Mattison does not possess the breakaway speed anywhere close to Dalvin Cook, and he has topped 20 targets only once in his four seasons. That last part is likely due to Cook’s presence.

I am always a believer that you shouldn’t say a player can’t do something just because he was never given a chance. However, the lack of breakaway speed is a concern on a team that ran on just 36 percent of their plays last season. It's easy to get excited for Mattison after seeing what he has done in spot starts, but doing it for 17 straight weeks is a different story. This screams RB dead zone to me. 

Isiah Pacheco is a back that I have consistently been lower on than consensus. Pacheco is a talented back, but his role is not very fantasy friendly. Sure, he is the lead back on one of the best offenses ever. But the Chiefs love to throw to their backs, and that is not Pacheco’s strength. Last year, the Chiefs RBs combined for 12 touchdowns. Not only did Pacheco not have any, but it nearly matched the number of targets he saw all season (14). Patrick Mahomes set the record for short-yard touchdowns.

Pacheco is useful between the 20s, but the Chiefs like to use their dual-threat backs near paydirt. So he is a back that won’t catch many passes and comes with touchdown concerns. When you break it down like that, it’s easy to see why I am not excited about Pacheco, particularly in best ball. 

Rachaad White is another easy fade for me. While many other analysts clamor for him, I believe the Bucs will pass significantly less than last year. That is largely because they set the record for pass attempts in a season, would stall out more with Brady, and had a head coach and QB who typically attempted fewer than league-average pass attempts.

So even without Leonard Fournette, it isn’t wise to project a huge bump in targets. Then, factor in that White had the fewest amount of explosive runs (six percent) of backs with at least 120 carries. Also, add in the possibility that things are just totally bottomed out for the Bucs' offense. I will let others take the shot on White. 

 

Wide Receivers to Fade in Best Ball 

Deebo Samuel is an extremely talented receiver and football player. But I am starting to believe that he is one of those players who is much more valuable in real life. One whose full value cannot be captured in fantasy points. But he was a WR3 last season and struggled to come anywhere close to matching the efficiency he had in 2021. That season was the absolute best-case scenario for Samuel and will likely go down as his career year. It’s also the only time he has been a top-30 fantasy WR.

Samuel had the second-lowest air yards per target at 4.6 last season, behind only Greg Dortch (4.4). He relies on yards after the catch, which makes it harder for him to score fantasy points in chunks. In addition, he is part of an extremely crowded group of pass-catchers. He could struggle to see the volume necessary to finish as a high-end WR2. It's also unlikely we see him used as a running back often, as the Niners' RB room is so much better than it was two years ago. I am just not willing to chase 2021 and pay a premium for Samuel. 

Michael Pittman Jr. is another really talented receiver, but he is on a team that has a chance to lead the league in rushing. Anthony Richardson is a QB I like a lot for fantasy and real life, but more for fantasy because of his rushing upside. We know what Jonathan Taylor can do as a runner as well. While I love Richardson’s tools, there will be growing pains in his rookie year.

It won’t be as bad as it was in 2022 when Pittman didn’t finish as a WR1 in the final 11 games, but there is the potential for a lot of low-scoring weeks. As much as I like Pittman as a talent, I do not think his situation is great for fantasy this season. 

JuJu Smith-Schuster has been more name than production for years now. He is still a very productive real-life NFL receiver, but for fantasy purposes, he is very average. For years, I joked that Ben Roethlisberger’s weak arm had turned Smith-Schuster into a tight end. He would post extremely low air yards per target and struggled to create many yards after the catch. While he did improve a bit with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, he was still purely an inconsistent WR3 in fantasy.

Now, he gets a QB downgrade, a play-calling downgrade, and will be on an offense that is less likely to throw as much in New England. He brings a low floor and not a very high ceiling -- which is exactly the kind of player to avoid in best ball.

 

Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Philadelphia 76ers

Kyle Lowry Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Jock Landale

Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Moritz Wagner

Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Jaxson Hayes

Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF