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Michael F. Florio's must-avoid fantasy football draft picks for 2023 best ball formats. These are his potential busts and overvalued players for 2023 best ball.
Fantasy football best ball drafts and contests continue to grow and grow each year. There was a time when even fantasy analysts hadn’t heard of best ball leagues, and there was only one site you could play them on. Nowadays, you can’t log onto Twitter without seeing screenshots of teams and more talk about the strategy to win these leagues.
But before you can win these leagues, you need to understand the format. Even more than that, you need to know the players to target and those to avoid. Best ball is a format where you draft a team and let it play out. No trades, no pickups, and no setting lineups. Each week, your optimal lineup is set. This means whoever scores the most points on your team is added until you have a full lineup. Each week, your score is added up. Whoever scores the most at the end of the season wins.
Best ball is a format that rewards high-scoring players, meaning you want to chase upside. Not just yearly upside, but weekly as well. A big week will have a greater impact on your end-of-season scores. While you know to target upside, what players should you avoid in this format?
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Type of Players to Avoid in Best Ball
Before I tell you the specific players to avoid, I should tell you the types of players to avoid. Since best ball is a format that automatically sets your optimal lineup each week, your goal is to score as many points as possible in any given week. Unlike in redraft where the key is consistency, an inconsistent player can be better suited in this format. The games where that player goes off -- we will call them spike weeks -- are more useful throughout the season.
In redraft, you may find it useful and certainly less stressful to have a player that can score 10 to 12 fantasy points in a given week. Chances are in best ball that player will be outscored by others on your roster more often than not. It's not a bad idea to have one or two safe options just in case. But be sure not to overdo it. The last thing you want is to lower your team's upside and chances of having a really high-scoring week. Those are the kinds of players you want to let others draft in this format.
Quarterbacks to Fade in Best Ball
The thing with quarterbacks in best ball is it is hard to find some to fade. There are only 32 starters at the position, and every team in the draft is going to draft multiple. That means that, at the very least, 24 will be drafted. But it likely ends up being more. Everyone is in play to be drafted. However, you want to prioritize QBs that can run. They will give you the most upside and potential to find those high-scoring spike weeks.
What you want to avoid is QBs who do not run but will also not put up large passing volume. An example of a QB like that from last season would be some all-time greats in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Brady topped 20 fantasy points just twice, while Rodgers did not top that number at all. A QB who rarely tops 20 fantasy points does not do you a whole lot of good in a format where you try to maximize scores each week. Safe floor QBs have a role in redraft, but they hold you back in best ball.
Aaron Rodgers is not a QB I have drafted much, if at all, yet this season. Not only did he fail to top 20 fantasy points last year, but he averaged a career-low 14.1 fantasy PPG. He topped 260 passing yards just once, the same number of times he threw more than two touchdowns. He also threw his most interceptions since 2008 (12). Perhaps this was due to the thumb injury and losing Davante Adams. But there’s a chance it was Father Time rearing his ugly head.
His passing numbers could improve with the Jets, but he is never going to start running all of a sudden. He is a safe QB2, but in best ball, there are targets with more upside to chase.
Derek Carr averaged 14.6 fantasy PPG last season and topped 20 fantasy points just twice. He has thrown a career-high 14 interceptions in each of the last two seasons. Last season, he averaged 234.8 yards per game, his fewest since 2017. Plus, he has finished a season as a QB1 just once. So he does not bring a ton of seasonal upside, has decreasing passing numbers, and won’t run to make up for it. That means he brings a low weekly floor and will not provide many spike weeks. Let someone else draft Carr.
Running Backs to Fade in Best Ball
Najee Harris was the RB14 overall and RB20 in fantasy PPG last season. But those who rostered Harris know it was a rough go. He topped 16 fantasy points only twice -- the same number of times he finished as a top-10 fantasy RB and topped 100 yards. Harris saw his workload in the passing game dramatically drop as the Steelers now have a more mobile QB in Kenny Pickett compared to when the statue of Ben Roethlisberger was there.
Harris also struggled to post many breakaway runs. It's not exactly what you want to see in an RB who goes off the board close to an RB1. Harris is extremely volume dependent, and I do not want to spend an early-round pick on that kind of player.
Alexander Mattison is a back that is an easy fade for me this season. Mattison does not possess the breakaway speed anywhere close to Dalvin Cook, and he has topped 20 targets only once in his four seasons. That last part is likely due to Cook’s presence.
I am always a believer that you shouldn’t say a player can’t do something just because he was never given a chance. However, the lack of breakaway speed is a concern on a team that ran on just 36 percent of their plays last season. It's easy to get excited for Mattison after seeing what he has done in spot starts, but doing it for 17 straight weeks is a different story. This screams RB dead zone to me.
Isiah Pacheco is a back that I have consistently been lower on than consensus. Pacheco is a talented back, but his role is not very fantasy friendly. Sure, he is the lead back on one of the best offenses ever. But the Chiefs love to throw to their backs, and that is not Pacheco’s strength. Last year, the Chiefs RBs combined for 12 touchdowns. Not only did Pacheco not have any, but it nearly matched the number of targets he saw all season (14). Patrick Mahomes set the record for short-yard touchdowns.
Pacheco is useful between the 20s, but the Chiefs like to use their dual-threat backs near paydirt. So he is a back that won’t catch many passes and comes with touchdown concerns. When you break it down like that, it’s easy to see why I am not excited about Pacheco, particularly in best ball.
Rachaad White is another easy fade for me. While many other analysts clamor for him, I believe the Bucs will pass significantly less than last year. That is largely because they set the record for pass attempts in a season, would stall out more with Brady, and had a head coach and QB who typically attempted fewer than league-average pass attempts.
So even without Leonard Fournette, it isn’t wise to project a huge bump in targets. Then, factor in that White had the fewest amount of explosive runs (six percent) of backs with at least 120 carries. Also, add in the possibility that things are just totally bottomed out for the Bucs' offense. I will let others take the shot on White.
Wide Receivers to Fade in Best Ball
Deebo Samuel is an extremely talented receiver and football player. But I am starting to believe that he is one of those players who is much more valuable in real life. One whose full value cannot be captured in fantasy points. But he was a WR3 last season and struggled to come anywhere close to matching the efficiency he had in 2021. That season was the absolute best-case scenario for Samuel and will likely go down as his career year. It’s also the only time he has been a top-30 fantasy WR.
Samuel had the second-lowest air yards per target at 4.6 last season, behind only Greg Dortch (4.4). He relies on yards after the catch, which makes it harder for him to score fantasy points in chunks. In addition, he is part of an extremely crowded group of pass-catchers. He could struggle to see the volume necessary to finish as a high-end WR2. It's also unlikely we see him used as a running back often, as the Niners' RB room is so much better than it was two years ago. I am just not willing to chase 2021 and pay a premium for Samuel.
Michael Pittman Jr. is another really talented receiver, but he is on a team that has a chance to lead the league in rushing. Anthony Richardson is a QB I like a lot for fantasy and real life, but more for fantasy because of his rushing upside. We know what Jonathan Taylor can do as a runner as well. While I love Richardson’s tools, there will be growing pains in his rookie year.
It won’t be as bad as it was in 2022 when Pittman didn’t finish as a WR1 in the final 11 games, but there is the potential for a lot of low-scoring weeks. As much as I like Pittman as a talent, I do not think his situation is great for fantasy this season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been more name than production for years now. He is still a very productive real-life NFL receiver, but for fantasy purposes, he is very average. For years, I joked that Ben Roethlisberger’s weak arm had turned Smith-Schuster into a tight end. He would post extremely low air yards per target and struggled to create many yards after the catch. While he did improve a bit with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, he was still purely an inconsistent WR3 in fantasy.
Now, he gets a QB downgrade, a play-calling downgrade, and will be on an offense that is less likely to throw as much in New England. He brings a low floor and not a very high ceiling -- which is exactly the kind of player to avoid in best ball.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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