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Michael F. Florio's must-have fantasy football draft picks for best ball formats. These are his potential league-winning picks and draft targets for 2023.
Fantasy football best ball drafts are quickly becoming one of the most fun and popular ways to play fantasy football. I remember a decade or so ago when best ball was a niche style of play in what was still considered a niche hobby. Fantasy football has since blown up, and so too have best ball leagues.
Best ball is a format where you draft a team, and…that is it. No trades, no pickups, no setting lineups. Each week, your optimal lineup is set, meaning whoever scores the most points on your team is added until you have a full lineup. Your score is added up, and whoever scores the most at the end of the season wins. That’s it.
Since this is a format that sets the highest-scoring lineup, you want to target upside. Not just seasonal upside, but those players who can have what has been dubbed as “spike weeks." Who cares if a player scored single digits in a bunch of games? If they can have a couple of 20-plus point weeks, they would be a very useful piece in best ball. Those spike weeks have a bigger impact on your best ball seasonal score than a player who can consistently give you 10 points. And when that player has one of those dud weeks? No worries. Another player from your team that scored more is automatically inserted.
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Quarterback Draft Targets for Best Ball
When it comes to quarterback, the strategy is completely flipped on its head from what it has been in past years. Typically, the advice is to wait on the position. But this year, I disagree. The elite options give such an edge that it is now worth paying up to grab them if you can. I will typically take any of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Patrick Mahomes (in that order) if they fall to the third round of a best ball draft.
After there's a falloff, you don't want to wait too long to address the position. The next group is made up of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence (I rank them in that order). These are all QBs who add value with their legs. On top of that, they give you their passing skills, playing in high-powered offenses. Lawrence and the Jags' offense are the least proven of this bunch. So if you want to prioritize higher than him, be ready to do so in the fifth round.
If you can grab one of these top eight QBs, you can then wait and grab a second in the double-digit rounds. If you miss out on the top eight QBs, you can jump on one of the two QBs that bring similar upside. Deshaun Watson and Anthony Richardson may not bring the floor that the top eight each do, but they come with a similar ceiling.
Watson had finished as a top-six fantasy QB in PPG in every season with the Texans. Obviously, he was far from that last year, but he joined his new team at the end of a season after a nearly two-year absence.
Will he be able to regain his old form? That has yet to be seen, but I am not willing to write him off after that small of a sample size, especially given the circumstances.
Richardson is the best QB athlete since Cam Newton. My example of what he could be this season is 2022 Justin Fields. He struggled to put up many numbers as a passer but was a league winner because of his legs.
If you nab one of those two, I would add a safe QB2 such as Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones, Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins, or Aaron Rodgers. With Tua Tagovailoa, you can take the same approach as Watson and Richardson. There is a lot of upside there, but you want to hedge and add a safe option due to health concerns. After that, the strategy is to get at least two QBs and target upside in the later rounds. Jones is my favorite of the bunch, as he brings both a safe floor but a high ceiling if he can take the next step as a passer in his second season in this system.
Some upside candidates are Brock Purdy as he gets all the Niners pass game production baked in. There’s also Sam Howell, who is a better runner than he gets credit for. Desmond Ridder is another guy who not only can add some value with his legs but plays for an offense with a bunch of young talent. If you miss out there, you can throw a dart at Bryce Young, Mac Jones, or Kenny Pickett.
Running Back Draft Targets for Best Ball
Running back does not change early on much from redraft leagues. You target the players you have ranked the highest at the position. You can adjust your rankings based on who catches the most passes or who has the most big-play potential. All of which leads to those spike weeks. But besides that, it is business as usual until you get into the later rounds.
Some RBs to target in the early rounds (not mentioning the first-round stud RBs) are Tony Pollard, Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Miles Sanders.
You want to target backup running backs who could see a lot of volume should something happen to the starter. On some teams, there is a multitude of backups, and we could see a committee. But many teams with quality backups are worth investing in during the later rounds of best ball drafts.
Running back is the position that suffers the most in-season injuries or just down performances. This is why it's important to have backups on your bench. That way, if your primary RBs have a down week, your backups will be elevated to RB2 status, if not higher.
Some RBs who fit this mold, who go in Round 10 or later, are Zach Charbonnet, Rashaad Penny, Elijah Mitchell, Jamaal Williams, Jaylen Warren, Tank Bigsby, Tyler Allgeier, Devin Singletary, Samaje Perine and Tyjae Spears.
Later options include Gus Edwards, Zamir White, Evan Hull, Deonte Jackson and Ty Chandler.
D’Andre Swift is a talent I like, but just when I was ready to quit on him, he gets sent to the best-rushing offense in the NFL. Last year, Miles Sanders ran for over 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns as the lead runner for Philly. Swift led all RBs with 1.13 fantasy points per carry last season. He has breakaway capabilities and is a better pass-catcher than Sanders. He brings RB1 upside, and you get him outside the top 20 RBs.
James Conner is severely underrated. He has been the RB9 in fantasy PPG for two straight years and top 20 overall in each season. He averaged 19.8 fantasy PPG from Week 10 on -- all but one game was without Kyler Murray. His offense may struggle, but Conner will get plenty of opportunities both on the ground and through the air. Yet, he is barely a top-30 RB in early best ball drafts. Take advantage.
James Cook is one of my favorite RB targets this season. Cook has breakaway speed and got better with volume, albeit in a small sample size. He was used as the second RB as a rookie, but he is now in a position to see much more usage. He is also a strong receiver, so he can add value there. He is an upside shot worth taking in the middle rounds.
Alvin Kamara finished as a high-end RB2 last year, the worst finish of his career. That shows there is a safe floor and a high ceiling. He is falling outside the top 30 RBs due to a potential suspension that is looming. But here is the thing -- unless he is out for over half the season, you want him on your team.
Sure, the first few weeks will be a pain. But it is easier to set lineups when there are fewer injuries and bye weeks. Plus, you're not drafting him as a starter.
If he can be anywhere close to Kamara come the fantasy playoffs, then you have an RB2 with an RB1 upside. And the best part is you bought him at an RB3 price. He could be a league winner in that sense.
Khalil Herbert led all RBs in rushing yards after contact per carry (4.3) and in percent of runs that went for 10-plus yards (17 percent). He is in a crowded backfield; because of that, he is being drafted as an RB4. There is too much upside to pass on him at a decreased cost.
Jerick McKinnon set the record for consecutive games with a receiving touchdown by a running back. Early on in the season, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was an RB1 due to him being the pass-catching back in the red zone. The pass-catching back for the Chiefs can be very fantasy friendly in certain weeks. And in best ball, you do not have to guess when the big weeks may come. He is one of my favorite later-round targets.
Wide Receiver Draft Targets for Best Ball
Calvin Ridley is the kind of receiver you want to target with best ball. He has big play capabilities, and he is often used in the red zone. Both of which are the quickest ways to have those valuable spike weeks. I am bullish on the Jaguars' offense and Trevor Lawrence largely because I believe Ridley is the piece that pushes them over the top. It's going to be a fun season of him reminding the world just how good he is.
Amari Cooper has become very consistent year-to-year, even if he is inconsistent week-to-week. Yearly, he tops 1,000 yards and scores at least seven touchdowns. Last year, he finished as the WR10 overall and the WR17 in fantasy PPG. He has a potentially huge QB upgrade coming his way. That is if Deshaun Watson can regain his old form. Still, his ADP is later than that. He is one of my favorite WR targets this season.
Drake London had a 33 percent target share with Desmond Ridder last season. That was, of course, without Kyle Pitts, but London was still at 27 percent in games with Pitts. He was a target vacuum, just on an offense that refused to pass the ball.
In games with Ridder, they attempted over 30 passes per game, compared to just 24.5 with Marcus Mariota. Just some quick math shows that a 27 percent target share on 30 attempts per game equates to nearly 140 targets. That is a massive volume. And there is the chance Atlanta has to throw more than anticipated, as they were often in close games last year. We know London has high-end talent; he just needs the opportunity to break out.
Terry McLaurin is someone I will never quit on. I do not need to convince you that McLaurin is among the elite at the receiver position. And you know by now that he can stretch the field with the best of them -- meaning that there will be those spike weeks. But there are reasons to feel optimistic about him being able to overcome his offense.
Firstly, new play-caller Eric Bienemy is a reason to get excited. Secondly, Sam Howell should play well and hold onto the job. And if not, we will see a move to Jacoby Brissett, the QB who elevated Amari Cooper back to WR1 status last season. Either way, it is a good thing for McLaurin and his WR3 price tag.
Tyler Lockett is still performing at a very high level. I wrote an entire article about it. But if you are worried about his weekly volume, then this is exactly the format to take a shot on him. If he has a dud week, who cares? He has shown the capability to have some massive performances, which would lead to those valuable spike weeks. All at a WR3 price.
Kadarius Toney is a player that I just can’t seem to quit on. Toney earned a target on 30 percent of his routes with the Chiefs, which is among the leaders in the league. He also averaged 3.0 yards per route ran, which is up there with the elites. He is now on a Chiefs offense that has the best QB and play-caller in the league but perhaps the weakest WR depth. There should be an opportunity for Toney to put up some big weeks as long as he stays healthy.
Jameson Williams is a favorite of mine as well. If he did not tear his ACL before the draft, he might have been the first receiver off the board in his class. He is one of the most explosive options in the NFL, so he can have those big spike weeks. And just like with Kamara, I am not scared off by a suspension.
But again, it is easier to get by early in the season when bye weeks are not a concern, injuries haven’t piled up, and we can plan for the absence. Not only do we get all of that, but it also leads to a reduced cost to obtain his upside. Williams is a breakout candidate and one that brings league-winning potential down the stretch.
Every year, there are at least a couple of rookies that break out. There is value in the unknown upside. And the best part? You do not need to use more than a mid-round pick on any, with many going in the later rounds.
Rookies to take a shot on include Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, Puka Nacua, Jalin Hyatt, Jonathan Mingo, Jayden Reed, and Marvin Mims Jr.
Late-round fliers include Elijah Moore, Rashid Shaheed, Nico Collins, Alec Pierce, and Terrace Marshall Jr.
Tight End Draft Targets for Best Ball
When it comes to tight ends, the strategy is similar to redraft. There is a clear top-eight, and I would like to have one of them. I have them ranked as Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, and Dallas Goedert.
Darren Waller tends to go in the last of this bunch, but I am much more bullish on him than the market. To me, after the first two, the other five are all similar. The reason I'm willing to bet on Waller is because he's the best bet to lead his team in targets. The others all have a receiver, if not two, that could and likely will out-target them. If I am paying up, give me the volume.
I am also willing to be on Kyle Pitts -- as last year was not his fault at all.
Fallback options include Evan Engram, David Njoku, Dalton Schultz, Greg Dulcich, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Dalton Kincaid.
Later round options include Juwan Johnson, Gerald Everett, Irv Smith Jr., Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki, and Sam LaPorta.
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio
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