Florio's Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report (Week 10): Kimbrel, Duran, Diaz Bounce Back, Hoffman Elite

Happy Memorial Day to you all! Memorial Day is an important week in the fantasy baseball calendar not just because you get a day off of work to eat, drink, and watch plenty of baseball, but because we are officially two months into the season.

A third of the way through the season is a good place to take stock of your team. If you are sitting pretty in the standings, you can opt to keep riding things out. But if you are falling in the standings, this is the time for action. There is still enough time left where you can salvage your season and go on a run. I have seen it done plenty. But the longer you wait, the less time you have to correct a slow start. 

The saves category is particularly interesting because it purely comes down to opportunities. If all of the closers are rostered in your league, your only option is to trade. But there are plenty of murky bullpens you can take fliers on in hopes of finding a closer that sticks. And if you are fine in saves but your ratios and strikeouts need help, there are a plethora of relievers you can nab for cheap off the waiver wire that’ll serve you better than a rocky SP6. 

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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball

For a couple of weeks, it looked like Craig Kimbrel was losing his gig as Orioles closer. But with any situation like this with a proven closer, I preached patience. That worked out here as Kimbrel has a stranglehold on the closer gig in Baltimore. In the last week, he has picked up three saves and now has 12 on the season -- no other Orioles reliever has more than two. 

Happy 36th Birthday, Craig Kimbrel:

2018 WS Champ
9X All-Star
5X Top 10 Cy Young Finish
4X NL Saves Leader
429 Saves (5th MLB History)
777.1 IP
2.42 ERA
170 ERA+
1,221 Strikeouts

When it is all said and done, do you believe Kimbrel belongs in the HOF? pic.twitter.com/0H74toJheX

— Jim Miloch (@podoffame) May 28, 2024

Kimbrel has had down periods before, so do not be surprised if something like this happens again later in the season. Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe would be next in line and regardless, both are pitchers that can help your ratios. Coulombe especially can with his 3.20 ERA, 2.87 xERA, 0.66 WHIP, and 30 percent strikeout rate. He has been elite as a non-closer this season. 

The Mets did not pick up a single save in the last week. In their defense, it’s hard to close out games when you have a historic week of blowing leads. But it does us no favor trying to figure this bullpen out. Edwin Diaz continues to work through struggles and just like with Kimbrel above, you should practice patience. Perhaps you can get away from Diaz if you are in good standings in the saves category, but that seems unlikely given the premium price needed to draft Diaz. If you are struggling in the category, I think you continue to start him and hope he figures things out quickly. While his ERA sits at 5.40, his xERA is just 3.09, and his .310 BABIP, 63 percent strand rate, and 26 percent HR/FB ratio indicate a lot of poor luck. He is still picking up plenty of strikeouts. I would consider him a buy-low more than a cut candidate. 

However, with him not getting all the saves in Queens at the moment, you can take fliers on other pitchers here. Reed Garrett should be rostered in all but the shallowest formats. He has two saves this season with pretty elite ratios. He has a 2.67 ERA, 2.07 xERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 38 percent strikeout rate. Adam Ottavino and Jorge Lopez are worth fliers in deeper formats. 

The Dodgers did not pick up a save in the last week. Daniel Hudson has picked up the bulk of saves in Evan Phillips’ absence. Not only that but he has provided strong ratios. On the year, he has a 2.70 ERA, 2.76 xERA, 0.75 WHIP, and a 30 percent strikeout rate. He can continue to be rostered once Phillips returns due to the ratios and the fact that he is next in line for saves on the team that may win the most games this season. 

Speaking of Phillips, he made his first rehab appearance on Sunday, striking out two in a clean inning. He will need a couple more outings and then will return to the Dodgers. Once he returns, I would expect him to quickly return to the full-time closer. 

Look who's back, @Dodgers 👀

Rehabbing pitchers Bobby Miller and Evan Phillips combine for six strikeouts in four innings for the @RCQuakes. pic.twitter.com/Mf8R6rB9N2

— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) May 27, 2024

The Rockies have had three saves this week. A different pitcher with Jalen Beeks picked each up, with Matt Koch and Tyler Kinley each recording a save. On the year, Beeks leads the team with five saves and is the top fantasy option here. Just understand that he is not a strikeout pitcher (18 percent K rate), so he will pitch to contact in Coors Field. On the year, he has a 3.20 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, but understand the risk you take with your ratios.

Still, Beeks is worth rostering if you are in need of saves. After that, even with Justin Lawrence landing on the IL, I would avoid the other options unless extremely desperate. However, if you are in a deep league and desperate for saves, Tyler Kinley would be the second-best bet in this pen. 

Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball 

It was cool having a week without including the Phillies bullpen in this article. But in the last week, we have seen Jose Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman split opportunities. While Alvarado has received the bulk of save chances this year and is clearly a must-start fantasy option, Hoffman is someone I have been advocating to add for weeks now. On the season, he has four saves, a 1.19 ERA, 2.32 xERA, 0.97 WHIP, and a 33 percent strikeout rate. He provides elite ratios and strikeouts and is getting more save chances on the best team currently in MLB. Both he and Alvarado should start moving forward. 

Jeff Hoffman, Dirty 92mph Splitter. ✌️ pic.twitter.com/U0UOCKz6cU

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 23, 2024

I have written about the Reds bullpen for a few weeks now as I was worried about Alexis Diaz. It was a great week for the Reds closer, though, as he picked up three saves and did not allow a run. He now has 10 saves on the season and even with the inconsistencies, as long as he is getting the save chances, he is a must-start fantasy option. We did see Lucas Sims pick up a notable save this week. He has closer experience in the past and could be next in line if Diaz’s struggles pick back up. 

Fernando Cruz continues to be a pitcher I will highlight in this bullpen. While he has a 4.07 ERA, his xERA sits at 2.40. He also has a 1.11 WHIP and the real reason to get excited is his 48 percent strikeout rate. Yes, he has struck out nearly half the batters he has faced this season. That alone puts him on the roto radar. 

In the last week, Jhoan Duran has picked up all four saves for the Twins. He now has a team-leading seven saves while pitching to a 3.75 ERA, 2.78 xERA, 1.08 WHIP, and a 25 percent strikeout rate. While it is awesome to see him get the bulk of chances (and he is a must-start fantasy option), I am not sure we have reached the point where we should expect every save to go his way. The Twins may still opt to use him in very high-leverage situations, though this past week has been great for Duran. Griffin Jax remains next in line but his fantasy value does take a hit if the bulk of chances are now going Duran’s way. 

Last year, Alex Lange picked up 26 saves for the Tigers. This year, he has a 4.34 ERA, just two saves, and was sent to the minors to work on throwing strikes after a weird altercation on the mound last week. Jason Foley, who was Lange’s setup man last year, continues to be the Tigers' full-time closer even after blowing a save on Sunday. He is a must-start fantasy option. But the thinking had been that if anything happened to him, Lange would be next in line. However, this past week, we did see Tyler Holton pick up a save. Just something to note in case something happens to Foley. 

Elite Strikeouts and Ratios for Fantasy Baseball

Remember Luke Weaver? The former starter came up with hype with the Cardinals but has had an ERA over six in three of the last four seasons. Yes, that guy has converted to a full-time reliever for the Yankees and is putting up elite numbers. He has pitched 32.1 innings in 19 appearances, so he often will give you multiple innings. That is the third-most innings by a reliever so far this season.

On the year, he has a 2.51 ERA, 3.70 xERA, 0.71 WHIP, and a 28 percent strikeout rate. That WHIP is the seventh best amongst qualified relievers. He will not get you saves, but since he often goes multiple innings, he can certainly be used in place of a shaky starter. He will provide a similar amount of innings in a week but much better numbers. 

Luke Weaver has been FLAWLESS over his last 15.1 IP:

0.00 ERA | 38.5% K% | 1.9% BB% | 0.26 WHIP pic.twitter.com/64pKVyErRZ

— Fireside Yankees (@FiresideYankees) May 13, 2024

Bryan Hudson has been a similar pitcher as Weaver. He has thrown 30.1 innings in 20 appearances, the sixth-most innings among any reliever this season. He has a 0.59 ERA, 1.98 xERA, 0.73 WHIP, and a 32 percent strikeout rate. I would not expect many saves since he has just four in his entire professional career including the minors, but the numbers he can give you are elite. And just like with Weaver, because he can go multiple innings, he can give you a similar workload to a back-end starter who may go five innings in a given week. But the results would be far better with Hudson. Take advantage and help stabilize your ratios. 

Just like the two above, Ryan Walker has been a workhorse reliever who can provide elite ratios and strikeouts, just no saves. Noticing a trend this week? Walker already has made 29 appearances this season, pitching to a 4-2 record with a 2.17 ERA, 2.76 xERA, 0.90 WHIP, and a 33 percent strikeout rate. While you will not get saves out of him, he can help stabilize those ratios. At this point, if you have already done damage to your team's ERA and WHIP, using a reliever like these three is better than a questionable starter. Trusting those starters is what damaged your ratios to begin with! 

While the trade deadline is two months away, it is never too early to think about teams that could be looking to trade relievers. No position gets a bigger shakeup due to trades than relief pitchers. Some relievers could see their fantasy value increase either by their team trading the current closer or by trading this pitcher to a team in need of late-inning arms. Some pitchers who fit this mold that are not mentioned above are Hunter Harvey, Jason Adam, Lucas Erceg, Jordan Leasure, A.J. Puk, Aroldis Chapman, and Chase Anderson. 

Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio. 

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