Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - Valspar Championship

As the PGA Tour’s Florida swing enters its final leg in Palm Harbor, golf bettors might be relieved to see that neither Scottie Scheffler nor Jon Rahm will be teeing it up at Innisbrook this week. It’s been quite a run for the top two players on the planet - combining to win four of the last five events they’ve both attended, and in the process, causing a great amount of headache to those of us that were unwilling to pay the steep prices at the top of the outright board. 

But new weeks always present new opportunities for golfers, and golf bettors alike, and what the Valspar field lacks in star power, it makes up for in an abundance of potential breakout stars all vying for a spot in the limelight. It has seemingly been a common thread in these non-elevated events (Sony, Pebble Beach, Honda, Valspar), for an assortment of 3-4 Top 20 players to be joined by a hybrid collection of Swing Season mainstays and recent Korn Ferry graduates. 

To this point, the big names have failed to maintain order - with winners ranging from 30 to 45-1 on the closing line. Time will tell if the stiff test ahead at Innisbrook is enough to separate the top tier, or if these smaller events will continue to act as a springboard for another surprise breakout. 

The Golf Course

Unlike the waterlogged coastal tracks we’ve grown accustomed to over the last three weeks in the Sunshine State, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook profiles a lot more like a course you’d find 100s of miles inland. Its tight, tree-lined fairways and striking elevation changes draw more comparisons to the foothills of North Carolina than the marshlands of West Florida. 

At over 7,300 yards as a Par 71, Innisbrook already plays as one of the longer par-adjusted courses on the PGA Tour, and the routing is made even longer by the multitude of forced layups off-the-tee. By my count, I’d estimate at least four or five instances where players will be forced to play to specific landing areas far short of where they’d ideally like to bomb driver. 

This design quirk, combined with five Par 3’s that measure over 190 yards, and four Par 5’s all measuring over 550 yards means that the Copperhead Course places as large of an emphasis on middle to long iron play as any course we’ll see all year. Around 47% of approach shots this week will come from >175 yards, a greater percentage than we’ll see at even the biggest ballparks on Tour.

Despite this effective length, and after being known for years as one of the more difficult non-major venues on the PGA Tour, Innisbrook Resort has shown a softer underbelly over the last two years. Sam Burns comes into the 2023 iteration as a back-to-back Champion at the Copperhead Course, reaching the (-17) mark on both occasions. 

But Burns isn’t the only one who has feasted on this recent, softer setup, however, as a combined 27 players have crested the (-10) mark since 2021 - a feat only accomplished by 50 others in the previous 19 tournaments held at Innisbrook.

These facts and figures have clearly not been lost on the course staff this week, as the rough height has been increased to nearly 4” from its traditional 3” benchmark (a similar change to what we saw last week at Sawgrass), and the intermediate-cut from off of the greens has been severely cut back - all but eliminating the buffer zone between the greenside rough and the putting surface. 

It’s quite clear that inaccuracies both off the tee and on second shots will be as harshly punished as we’ve seen in years, and judging by preliminary forecasts, they might have picked the perfect year to usher in these changes.

As if a conspiring grounds crew wasn’t enough, Palm Harbor looks to be in for some of the windiest four days we’ve seen thus far this year on the PGA Tour. Projections from Thursday-Sunday all feature sustained intervals of 20-30 mph gusts, and although a potential PM/AM wave advantage is shaping up based on these projections, it’s hard to believe any of these players will be able to avoid the wind over the course of all four days.

As a result, we’ll have to completely revise the requisite skillset for players in our player pool when compared to the last few Valspar iterations. Traditionally, this is an event that has favored great ball-striking, with players like Paul Casey, Keegan Bradley, Justin Thomas, and Matthew NeSmith repeatedly finding their way to the top of leaderboards by peppering greens with mid/long irons. 

However, with winds blowing 20-30 mph for much of the week, and miscues set to be acutely punished, one has to re-assess the viability of these pure ball-strikers. I don’t anticipate anyone cresting the 75-80% Green in Regulation mark no matter how prolific their long-iron splits have been. In my estimation, this severely limits the upside of players that can’t routinely scramble for par.

Scouting the Routing

Although not quite as difficult historically, the Copperhead Course can draw direct comparisons to Bay Hill in the scoring opportunities available within its routing. The four Par 5’s (1,5, 11, and 14), at Innisbrook are far-and-away the easiest birdie opportunities players will get over the course of the round, as well as the only holes on the entire golf course that carry birdie rates over 20%. 

Par 5 scoring has always been a key stat around Innisbrook, but on a week like this, I’d anticipate Bogey Avoidance to play just as crucial of a role in a player's overall win equity. Pars on the 3rd, 6th, 8th, and 13th holes have cut the average field by nearly two-tenths of a shot, and that’s before you venture into the infamous “Snake Pit.”

The 16th, 17th, and 18th holes at the Copperhead course are reserved for special mention, as they have long represented one of the more difficult finishing stretches on the PGA Tour. Carrying a cumulative scoring average of (+0.54), it’s absolutely imperative from a live-betting standpoint that you account for this finishing stretch when prospecting for live additions on Thursday and Friday. 

If a player has gotten through this stretch of holes unscathed, it can be as valuable as a birdie on any of the Par 5’s, and any player with the Snake Pit still ahead will need to temper their expectations until the final putt is holed. The Par 4 16th, nicknamed “Moccasin,” is the biggest hurdle to look out for, as it carries a nearly 30% Bogey or Worse rate, and plays to a ridiculous 4.28 scoring average.

With so many difficult holes to navigate, patience is once again the name of the game when scouting players in the live market. If we flashback to when scoring conditions at Innisbrook were routinely among the most difficult on Tour (2013-2019 in particular), you will see that six of the seven champions in that span were able to do so despite shooting a round of even par or worse over the course of the week.

Barring a Scottie Scheffler-esque performance from one of the four elite players in the field, I don’t believe the course conditions are conducive to a runaway winner. There simply aren’t enough birdie chances to counteract the amount of scrambling these players will be in for, and everything from the course setup to the elements is setting up for a throwback to the days of a (-7) or (-8) winning score. 

I’d expect a very condensed leaderboard come Sunday afternoon, which means an abundance of live opportunities for those that 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Jordan Spieth (13-1)

As much as I’d love to fill my card with some of my favorite hits from 40-1 and beyond, these last few months have taught me that you don’t need to be particularly creative to cash an outright winner. And frankly, no matter where I looked this week, the numbers pointed me to Jordan Spieth. 

First and foremost, Spieth has a phenomenal history around the Copperhead Course: logging a win in 2015, and three additional top 20s from 2013-2016. He also happens to possess victories at other club-down courses with an abundance of mid/long-irons (Colonial, Wyndham, Harbour Town).

The history is great, but it's the recent ball-striking form for Jordan that's perhaps the most compelling reason to back him this week. Spieth's about as streaky as they come at the top level, but he's also tended to prelude his wins with some flashy lead-in form: particularly with his irons.

Over the last month, nobody has gained more strokes from tee-to-green than Jordan, and in particular, his approach play and his short game (the two metrics I'm weighing most highly), are the factors that have carried Spieth's recent success. He rates out seventh in the field on approach and fourth around the greens over his last 24 rounds.

A wind-swept, difficult golf course with an emphasis on shot-shaping and navigating gnarled greenside lies? I don't know if you could draw up a better setup for Jordan Spieth. He's far and away my largest position of the week.

Ben Griffin (60-1) 

It’s taken some time to heal since the last time we backed the UNC alum (2022 Bermuda, Never Forget), but I can no longer ignore the model of consistency that Griffin has become. Ben’s made 13 of 15 cuts to start his PGA Tour career, and from a statistical standpoint, there really aren’t a ton of holes to poke in his game.

Griffin’s gained at least half a stroke per tournament in each of the 4 strokes-gained categories over his last 10 starts, he also ranks 2nd in Bogey Avoidance and 5th in overall tee-to-green play. That’s exactly the type of robust skillset I’m looking for around a golf course prepared to show its teeth. 

Griffin has faced and conquered similar tests already in his young career: finishing 16th at a long, difficult setup at Memorial Park, 14th in Major Championship-esque conditions at Bay Hill, and 3rd at a wind-swept Bermuda Championship last fall. With the form he’s currently in, and the lack of compelling names in the field, Valspar could be Ben’s best chance to atone for the collapse at Port Royal and officially stake his claim as the frontrunner for the 2023 PGA Rookie of the Year award.

Pierceson Coody (135-1)

Seemingly the latest golfing prodigy out of the Texas Longhorn factory, Coody shares a lot of the same pedigree we’ve seen in many of the young stars that have recently flown up the Professional Rankings. The grandson of 1971 Masters Champion Charles Coody, Pierceson is also a former #1 World Amateur, a National Champion at UT, and a two-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour since turning pro in June 2022.

The more notable of the two KFT wins came earlier this year in Panama, where ridiculous winds left just seven players under-par by the end of the week. One month later, he fired a Saturday 66 around Bay Hill - finishing a more than respectable T14 on the week.

Coody expressed afterwards how comfortable he feels in the wind, and how some of his biggest amateur wins have come in brutally tough conditions. With the talent we’ve already seen out of the 23-year-old Texan, a triple-digit price in a field like this feels like a very worthwhile gamble. 

Sam Burns (33-1)

And finally, for the sake of full disclosure, I did catch a Sam Burns repeat Valspar champion prop at 33-1 earlier this year. That number is obviously gone in the current market, but I wouldn’t sweat it too much. 

Despite his back-to-back wins here at Innisbrook, Burns hasn’t shown anywhere near the type of ball-striking upside we’ve seen in the leadup to his past triumphs in Tampa. From a tee-to-green perspective, Sammy ranks right in between Adam Schenk and Michael Thompson over the last six months. Not great company when books are pricing him at 16-1 on most pre-tournament odds boards.

Obviously, the flat-stick always has the potential to carry Burns’ hopes on these overseeded Bermuda greens (far and away the best putter in the field on these types of surfaces). However, 16-1 is far too pricy to be banking on a guy to gain multiple shots per day on the greens. In the current market, I’d much prefer paying up for Spieth or going to Fitzpatrick at the same price. As it stands though, 33-1 is a pending bet in my account, so I’ll be hoping Sam can find some of his old magic at the happiest of his hunting grounds.

With these 4 names on the card, we’ve used up ~80% of our weekly outright budget. We still have plenty of room for another add in the 40s or a couple more above 80-1. Here are a few names I'm keeping a particularly close eye on:

The Shortlist

Justin Suh (40-1)

The 25-year-old Californian looks to finally be fulfilling his lofty expectations coming out of USC. Just a few months removed from winning the year-end Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour, Suh has gone on an absolute tear through the Florida swing: notching results of T5, T24, and T6 at Honda, API, and the PLAYERS.

The recent form on Approach has been brilliant: gaining in each of his last 5 starts and rating 8th in my Long-term weighted proximity model. Suh’s been great at keeping the ball in play off the tee (2nd in Good Drive %), and the only real wart on his profile (the short game), showed real signs of life last week at Sawgrass - gaining nearly 5 shots around the greens for the week and going 4/4 with positive ARG splits.

I’m very intrigued by the recent form, but at 35/40-1 on most books, the number isn’t compelling enough for me to go charging in. For what it’s worth, he’s on the tougher side of the projected weather wave. If those forecasts hold, we’ll get some pretty immediate insights as to where his short game really stands.

Gary Woodland (45-1)

Unlike Justin Suh, who still has question marks around the short game, I think we can pretty safely call Gary Woodland a bad chipper of the golf ball. Woodland's lost nearly half a shot per round around the greens over his last ten starts, and the primary reason he's not on my betting card revolves around my concerns if winds kick up and guys like Gary begin to miss an inordinate percentage of greens in regulation.

What Gary does possess, however, are some of the best ball-striking splits in the field. Between his driving and iron play, nobody in this field comes particularly close to Gary over his last 24 rounds. The long-irons in particular have been out of this world for a while now: as Woodland ranks #1 in long-term Proximity from >200 yards.

These elite tools, as well as a well-documented comfort in the wind, will certainly help Gary to navigate this difficult layout better than most. However,  I can also see catastrophe looming if a premier

Victor Perez (66-1)

Compared to his overall standing in the world game, a 66-1 on Victor Perez in this field does seem a bit disrespectful. Perez hasn't played since February, but he's routinely one of the best regulars on the DP World Tour: notching two wins in Abu Dhabi and the Netherlands within the last ten months.

The month-long layoff does come with a few question marks regarding his recent form, but Perez had finished First, 12th, 13th, and 28th in his last four starts across the pond, and he ranked inside the top 25 in both key ball-striking metrics over the whole of the 2022 European campaign.

Innisbrook does have a bit of a European flair to its setup, and Perez should feel right at home navigating a difficult, wind-swept venue. I think there's some untapped upside at his current price, and I'll be keeping a close eye on the Frenchman's live prospects as the week goes on.

Jhonattan Vegas (75-1)

When you spend way too much time looking at golf statistics and odds boards the way I do, you begin to notice inconsistencies from week to week. Jhonny Vegas sticks out to me as an under-the-radar play at 75-1 this week, just a few weeks after being all the rage at half the number heading into the Honda Classic.

Vegas possesses a lot of the same question marks as guys like Suh and Woodland above him, but if Innisbrook does reward ball-striking as it has in years past, Vegas is certainly swinging it well enough to take advantage of the opportunity. Jhonattan ranks second in this field in total ball-striking over the last 24 rounds and 20th in my weighed proximity model from 175 yards and above.

Vegas also happened to share the first-round lead at last year's Valspar Championship and just so happens to be on the better side of the projected weather draw this year. If he can turn that advantage into an early head start, I can certainly see the big Venezuelan hanging around deep into the weekend.

Alex Smalley (100-1)

When you talk about a tight, tree-lined setup with a ton of middle and long irons in hand into greens, there might not be another 26-year-old on Tour with the same level of comfort with those parameters as Alex Smalley. A four-year starter at Duke, and a member of Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, Smalley will have plenty of experience around this type of Carolina-style venue.

Smalley has notably had some of the best finishes of his career on longer setups with an emphasis on long-iron play (Memorial Park, Vidanta, Renaissance, Corales). He's also been an extremely proficient wind player over his short career (11th in SG: Total, 4th in GIRs gained in Moderate/Severe wind conditions).

The recent form in some of the marquee events to start the year has left much to be desired from Smalley, but he was on pace to be one of the breakout stars of the swing season last fall. I think contending in a field like this is a much more attainable task for the second-year pro, and the long-term profile fits well with what I'm looking for this week. He's certainly one of the more intriguing names for me >100-1.

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