Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Although many of us golf fans had axes to grind with the Tour's newest venue, you cannot argue that the finish at El Cardonal was as compelling as we've seen in some time on the PGA Tour. Playing with a heavy heart, Erik Van Rooyan funneled the motivation given to him by a terminally-ill friend into a back-nine 28 -- including three long-distance putts on 16, 17, and 18 that eventually sealed the deal on his second PGA Tour title. The Van Rooyan 80-1 ticket we wrote up in last week's article brings us to an unprecedented three-week winning streak in the PGA outright market! I'll be the first to admit this is unchartered territory in my time as a golf bettor, but we'll take the positive swings in variance wherever we can get them. The breaks won't go our way forever, but while they have, I hope each of you has enjoyed the ride.

In our quest for a fourth straight winner, we head about 600 miles off of America's east coast to the island of Bermuda. While this Championship has never boasted the strongest fields or the biggest purses, it has represented a yearly opportunity for golf bettors to cash some exorbitant tickets. Three years ago, Brian Gay opened as deep as 250-1 on betting boards, eventually defeating 80-1 longshot (and current U.S. Open Champion) Wyndham Clark in a sudden death playoff. The year after that, Flag Hunting hit its biggest-ever single outright ticket: a 175-1 live wager on Lucas Herbert. And last year, popular 100-1 longshot Ben Griffin held a two-shot lead on the back-nine before succumbing to the Sunday pressure. One look at this year's field (and the incoming forecast), and it seems as if we're in for another wild ride in 2023.

So, without further ado, here's everything you need to know about Port Royal GC and the 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship!

The Golf Course

Port Royal GC - Par 71; 6,828 yards

Past Champions

• 2022: Seamus Power (-19)
• 2021: Lucas Herbert (-15)
• 2020: Brian Gay (-15)
• 2019: Brendon Todd (-24)

In the four years we've come to Bermuda for this championship, one of the defining themes has been the wide disparity of scores recorded year over year. In 2020 and 2021, Port Royal played to a scoring average of 70.77 (just under a quarter-shot under par), and just 29 players between the two years managed to finish the week at double digits under par. In 2019 and 2022, however, we saw a cumulative scoring average of 69.59 (nearly a shot and a half under par) with a combined 64 players reaching the 10-under threshold.

It's not often we see this wide of a discrepancy between winning scores on the same golf course year over year, but take one look at the location of this event and the reasoning becomes clear: wind. Port Royal sits right on the coastline of an island 600 miles away from the nearest landmass. The finishing stretch of 15-18 sits just a few hundred feet from the Atlantic Ocean, and with no dense forests or natural barriers, players will be extremely exposed to any and all weather coming from offshore.

As of Tuesday night, the initial projections seem as if this year's rendition is in line to play more comparably to the difficult years of 2020/21, particularly on the weekend. Current forecasts (via WindFinder) have sustained winds of 15-25 mph throughout Saturday and Sunday, and although both Thursday and Friday do seem a bit more benign as of now, anyone who has ever lived on the coast will tell you how quickly things can change.

If tackling this tournament from a handicapping standpoint is something that interests you, I'd highly recommend you get acquainted with one of the many wind-tracking services on the web. From potential wave stacks to shifts in optimal player profiles, there may not be another tournament all year in which the result depends more heavily on the daily forecast.

For now, let's set aside the wind talk and actually get into the minutiae of Port Royal as a golf course. As I mentioned earlier, Port Royal GC measures just over 6800 yards on the scorecard -- making it the second shortest venue on the entire PGA Tour (behind TPC River Highlands). Shorter golf courses tend to open the door for a wider variety of skill sets to contend, and through four years in Bermuda, this tournament has fit that trend to a tee.

Look back through the last four champions of this event and you'll see exactly what I mean. In the first two iterations of the Bermuda Championship, we saw Brendon Todd and Brian Gay find the winner's circle -- two of the shortest, straightest hitters you’ll ever find in professional golf. Following them the very next year was Lucas Herbert, who ranked sixth in the field that week in Driving Distance (and 55th out of 75 players in Driving Accuracy). And last year, we had Seamus Power -- who provides a bit of middle ground between the two extremes. Not overly long, not overly accurate, but does just enough off-the-tee to not get himself in trouble.

One thing all four champions do share is an aptitude with the flat stick. As a collective: none of the four ranked outside the top 65 on the PGA Tour in SG. Putting the year they won, with Herbert actually leading the Tour in that category over the course of the 2021-22 season. Positive history on Bermuda grass has also been a consistent throughline between Todd, Gay, Herbert, and Power. Over the course of their careers, the four of them have averaged a whopping 0.405 strokes gained per round putting on Bermuda greens. To put that number in context, 0.4 SG/Round would have equated to being a top-30 putter on Tour last year.

While we can safely agree that driving is largely deemphasized on a golf course measuring just 6,800 yards with a bevy of club-down opportunities and no discernible impediments off the fairway, and putting is propped up as it usually is in fields lacking a ton of elite ball-striking pedigree, the other two phases of the game are more reliant on the forecast in Bermuda this week.

In calmer conditions, I expect this course to essentially act as a point-and-shoot wedge-fest. Eight of the 11 Par 4s at Port Royal measure under 415 yards, and the short Par 3 third (just 148 yards on the scorecard) will give players another opportunity to knock down the flag stick with a scoring club. If the weather does in fact lay down, I don’t expect Port Royal to put up much resistance to even this beleaguered field. Wedge proximity (specifically from 100-150 yards) will unequivocally be a key stat this week, but certainly more so if guys are able to play in conditions where they can accurately dial in their yardages without the nuisance of swirling winds.

Should the weather get a little out of hand, I believe a path to victory can be carved out through sheer guts and guile around the greens. Brian Gay and Lucas Herbert were able to emerge victorious in back-to-back windswept years despite missing 33% of their greens in regulation. To compensate, each of them rated out inside the top 20 in both Scrambling % and Putts per GIR for the week (i.e. they emerged victorious not because they were the best ball-strikers in the field that week, but because they were able to consistently save par from out of position and take advantage of the limited opportunities they did generate with their ball-striking).

It’s not often I weigh short game stats comparably to something like Total Driving or SG: APP, but if wind forecasts get progressively dire through the week, we could very well see an opportunity emerge for some of the sport's preeminent scramblers to climb their way up the leaderboard around a bearish Port Royal.

Key Stats Roundup: 

• As a whole, I'll be largely de-emphasizing many of my typical driving stats, as I believe any sort of OTT profile can find success here. Bombers, accuracy mavens, or even mediocre drivers who recognize their deficiencies and club down off of most tee boxes; I don’t really care as long as you’re not hemorrhaging strokes off the tee every week. Bonus points if you’ve shown an acumen off-the-tee at other short courses, but definitely less weight as a whole on all driving metrics.
• Approach play is still the most reliable barometer for success from week to week on Tour, and I still characterize Port Royal as a second-shot golf course. Large emphasis on wedge proximity (<150 yards), and another big week for a stat like Birdie Chances Created.
• I would really prefer a player that has some long-term pedigree on Bermuda greens. Port Royal’s complexes tend to be slower than most (largely due to the prevalence of wind), so I’m placing special emphasis on other coastal Bermuda tracks (Harbour Town, Sea Island, Wai’alae, etc). But any positive history on this surface should be rewarded in your modeling.
• Given the current wind forecasts (particularly for the weekend), I have weighed around the green play about as highly as I have since the Swing Season started. GIR rates could easily fall into the high 50s/low 60s if we see 20 mph sustained gusts on Saturday and Sunday. If this becomes a reality, a trusty short game will be a tremendous asset.

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market, it will be imperative to contextualize a player's position on the leaderboard alongside where he is on the golf course and which holes he still has left to play.

While a 6,800-yard golf course in the Swing Season doesn't exactly paint the picture of extreme difficulty, there are a few holes around Port Royal that we must be wary of when assessing a player's viability in the live market. This week, the holes I'm alluding to also happen to be some of the shortest on the golf course. Port Royal possesses three of the most difficult Par 3s you'll ever see at a regular Tour stop, as the eighth, 13th, and 16th holes all measure over 210 yards and sit close enough to the Bermuda shoreline as to be extremely exposed to incoming weather fronts.

As a group, this trio of 3-Pars plays to a scoring average of 9.63 (+0.63), and carry bogey or worse rates of 25, 26, and 31%, respectively. This brutal collection of Par 3s, plus a back-nine stretch of 13-16 that all play at least a tenth of a stroke under par, are the primary reason why I wouldn't be in a hurry to chase after the hot starters on the front side.

If there is a buy-low opportunity to be had over the course of the first two days in Bermuda, it will likely come on players starting on Port Royal's inward half. Holes 10-18 here actually play to a cumulative scoring average of 0.17 shots OVER par compared to the front nine scoring average of -0.95. This difference of over a full shot between the two nines at Port Royal (combined with the fact that five of the six easiest holes in the routing come in a six-hole stretch from 2-7) means that any player who's able to hold their round around even par through nine holes starting on 10 will be an automatic target as he makes the turn to the easier side.

This strategy was the exact tactic I used to catch a 175-1 price tag on Lucas Herbert Thursday morning two years ago. With half the field almost assuredly taking it deep over the first 1-2 hours of their rounds, you'd be surprised just how far some marquee names fall down the board despite not taking any substantial steps back whilst navigating the more difficult of the two nines. Of course, this isn't to say that I'm automatically targeting every player to start on the inward half in Round 1, but if you do have the ability to track scores in real time, it could be worth your while to save some of your weekly budget for these potential buy-low opportunities.

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Bermuda Championship Betting Card

Brendon Todd (20-1)

As evidenced by his runaway 2019 triumph, you won’t find a better fit on Tour for Brendon Todd’s skill set than Port Royal. Todd is far from the flashiest name on this week’s odds board, but in terms of the attributes I prioritize most this week, he may very well be the most reliable.

Inside 150 yards, you won’t find a more well-rounded player in this field, as Todd ranks third in my modeling in Wedge Proximity, first in around-the-green play, and eighth in Bermuda putting. He’s consistently performed well at similar wedge-intensive tracks (Silverado, TPC Deer Run, Pebble Beach, Sedgefield), and if the wind does play a significant factor in this week’s outcome, the Georgia native is well prepared for that type of test as well; gaining over half a stroke per round in moderate/heavy wind conditions since the start of 2021.

As one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on the PGA Tour as well (season-long fairway percentage of 67.26%), there simply aren’t many holes to pick in Todd’s game around a 6,800-yard golf course. With three top-seven finishes over his last six starts, Todd is very much trending towards a fourth career trip to victory lane.

Lucas Glover (25-1)

Considering Glover was the favored choice of many Americans to claim the final captain’s pick on the 2023 Ryder Cup team, it feels awfully jarring to see his name posted at 25-1 in this beleaguered field. Looking back over the last six months, Glover is legitimately in a class of his own compared to his fellow fieldmates in every discernable ball-striking metric. He’s gained over a stroke per round with his iron play since the start of May (leading the field by eight shots from a gross perspective), and rates out second in both Birdie Chances Created and Wedge Proximity from <150 yards.

Apart from his stellar iron play, Lucas also rates out as one of the field's most reliable drivers of the ball (fourth in Driving Accuracy; 68.53%). Although his highly publicized switch to the broomstick putting method has proven far from perfect (lost strokes putting in five of his last seven starts), it has enabled Glover to enjoy some tremendous highs; he’s gained over three strokes putting on four separate occasions since the start of July.

In those four starts, he’s recorded finishes of fourth, sixth, first, and first. With those reference points as a guide, you can safely bet we’ll be seeing his name at the top of another leaderboard if the putter can find form here in Bermuda.

Alex Smalley (25-1)

If there’s one player in this field who can match Glover’s recent ball-striking heater, it’s none other than our favorite Dukie, Alex Smalley. In fact, when aggregating all of my key approach stats for the week (SG: APP, Birdie Chances Created, Wedge Proximity <150), Smalley is the only other player to rate out inside the top five in all three metrics. Given this aptitude from inside 150 yards, it should come as no surprise that Smalley has managed to put together the best ball-striking weeks of his season around similar wedge-intensive venues:

• +8.0 at TPC Deer Run
• +7.3 at Detroit GC
• +6.8 at PGA West
• +5.8 at TPC River Highlands
• +4.2 at Sedgefield

With these weapons at his disposal, Port Royal’s benign layout shouldn’t present much of a challenge to an in-form Smalley -- especially when you consider he’s recorded finishes of 11th and 12th at this track in two previous appearances. Smalley also grades out as a top-five wind player in this field (0.8 SG/Round in moderate/heavy winds over the course of his career), and ranks inside the top 25 in both my Short Game and Total Driving models. Although Akshay holds the distinction of being the flashiest breakout pick on the Bermuda betting board, I’ll gladly take the 5-7 point discount on Alex Smalley to steal the show.

Alex Noren (25-1)

Although Alex Noren was first regarded as one of the premier grinders in world golf, his most recent spike results have come on some of the Tour’s tamer layouts. Between the Rocket Mortgage Classic, the AT&T Byron Nelson, and the 3M Open, Noren has recorded five top-15 finishes in seven starts since 2020, and he’s recently coming off of his best ball-striking week in 6+ years at last month’s Shriners Children’s Open. Alex gained 3.3 shots off-the-tee and 5.5 shots on approach around TPC Summerlin’s positional, wedge-heavy layout, which is quite a good omen for his prospects around an even shorter course in Port Royal this week.

Noren has long been regarded as one of the premier putters on the PGA Tour; ranking fifth in this field over the last three seasons on Bermuda grass, and only Brendon Todd can claim to have a more well-rounded short game, barely edging out Noren in my comprehensive 2023 short game model. Whether this week’s weather turns Bermuda into a benign birdie-fest or a wind-swept slog, I believe Noren has the tools to tackle whatever the course throws his way.

In the short history of this event, we’ve seen our share of Europeans and European Tour veterans find success on these links (Herbert, Power, Detry, Knox, etc). At 25-1, Noren makes a very compelling case to carry on that tradition.

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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