Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - ATT Byron Nelson

Like Hatton at Bay Hill, Spieth at Valspar, and Scheffler at Match Play, we’ve once again come up short from a winning position on Sunday afternoon. As someone with a Xander ticket in hand at Quail Hollow for the final round, it was pretty surreal watching Wyndham Clark beat him on five consecutive holes to flip a one-shot deficit into a four-shot lead, but it also allowed for a bit of reflection into the process we embark on every week when attempting to pick outright winners.

Win equity is a myth. Despite the myriad of statistical indicators that pointed to Clark’s name, many of us in the industry undermined Wyndham’s chances at Quail Hollow due to his repeated failures in much less pressure–packed environments. Nobody was surprised he played well, everyone was surprised he won.

The question of “Can he win?” is a blind spot that has bitten me on numerous occasions, but something about seeing one of the PGA Tour's bigger underachievers taking down a consensus top-five player in the world triggered a stark realization. The process of predicting winners of golf tournaments is tough enough without attempting to play armchair psychologist, so let's make a deal: if your only argument against a guy is that we've never seen it before, it's probably worth it to pull the trigger. With the heavy stuff out of the way, let's move on to the PGA Tour's final palette cleanser before our second main course in Rochester. Here's everything you need to know about the AT&T Byron Nelson from TPC Craig Ranch

The Golf Course

In the two-year history of this event, TPC Craig Ranch has established itself as one of the least rigorous tests on the PGA Tour. With winning scores of (-26) and (-25), and a whopping 20 players reaching the (-20) threshold, it’s left many in the industry scratching their heads as to why this venue was chosen over the likes of its traditional home at TPC Four Seasons or Trinity Forest.

To combat this cupcake reputation, the Tour has ushered in a few changes for this year's iteration. The most notable change comes in the form of a modification to the 12th hole: a 547-yard, par 5 which will now be played as a 493-yard par 4 - making it the second longest par 4 on the course. 

Although the transition of Craig Ranch to a Par 71 will make it more difficult for players to reach the dizzying heights we saw on last year’s leaderboard, it certainly isn’t enough to change the overall ethos of the golf course, and I still do not expect Craig Ranch to put up many meaningful obstacles in front of the world’s best.

Starting with the tee shot, Craig Ranch ranks as the 7th easiest course on Tour to gain strokes with the driver. At an average width of nearly 39 yards, Craig Ranch features the 8th widest fairways on the schedule, and despite attempts to grow the rough to 3” at its tallest points, uncooperative growing conditions have taken a bit of the sting out of what was already some of the most benign rough we see all year (32nd in Rough Penalty out of 46 courses).

Given this lack of penalty for wayward misses, we’ve routinely seen bombers like Bryson DeChambeau, Cameron Champ, and Jhonattan Vegas top the SG: OTT charts in Dallas (all whilst ranking inside the bottom ten in driving accuracy for the week). Elite driving isn’t nearly as much of a prerequisite as we saw last week at Quail Hollow, but I do believe this setup gives longer hitters an edge.

The second shot at TPC Craig Ranch has historically been where the money is made. Top five finishers over the last two years have gained 5.3 shots on average with their irons (43% of total strokes gained), and no player has managed a top-ten finish whilst losing strokes on approach. 

Because of Craig Ranch’s collection of long par 3s (3 of 4 measure over 215 yards), and ten other holes measuring over 450 yards, it’s no surprise that middle and long irons will be dominating the approach ranges this week. Over 50% of historic approach shots have come from 175 yards and beyond here, and only 16% have come from inside 125. If you want to create birdie chances on Craig Ranch’s more “difficult” stretches, you’ll have to do it with a long iron in hand.

Similar to the Mexico Open two weeks ago, short game does not project to be a significant factor this week. Not only does TPC Craig Ranch feature the second easiest green complexes to gain strokes around the greens (behind only Vidanta Vallarta), but with average GIR percentages hovering around 70% and winning scores projected to reach into the mid-20s, anyone forced to repeatedly rely on their scrambling acumen will likely be getting left in the dust by the field average.

Moving onto the greens themselves, and for the first time since Augusta, players will be on pure Bentgrass surfaces. Bentgrass tends to produce a more consistent roll than a bumpy Poa Annua or a grainy Bermuda, and with the lack of severe undulation to protect these hole locations, pros have been able to hole putts in bunches around Craig Ranch. (4th easiest on Tour to gain strokes putting and second easiest from 15 feet and beyond).  

As you’d expect from a tournament that routinely surrenders scores in the low-to-mid 20s, putting will be a significant factor when building a winning profile. Top five finishers have gained an average of 3.5 shots on the greens over the first two years here, and only Will Zalatoris managed to finish inside the top 20 in 2021 whilst losing strokes putting. 

Given the temperamental nature of putting splits from week to week, I’m still focusing most of my attention on projecting the field’s best ball strikers. However, with Will Zalatoris as our guide, be careful buying into the classic #TeamNoPutt profile in the outright market. The flat stick will need to carry at least some of the weight if you hope to contend in a shootout like this.

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be important to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside the holes he still has left to play. Fortunately for us, Craig Ranch makes it pretty easy in this regard. Only one hole in two years has managed to eclipse a 20% bogey rate (16), and 12 of the 18 holes here have played under par for the field.

Simply put, if a tour pro steps up to a hole at TPC Craig Ranch, he’s got a half-decent chance of making a birdie. The aforementioned 16th hole is the only hole I would classify as a “Bogey Avoidance Opportunity,” where par would gain you significant ground on the field, and although the easiest hole on the course now plays as a 490-yard par 4, its scoring average of 4.44 as a 547-yard par 5 doesn't inspire a lot of faith that this change will drastically increase the routing’s overall difficulty.

With the lack of real peril on property, let’s instead talk about some potential scoring stretches to look out for, as I see some potential buy-low opportunities for players starting on a particular side.

As the 12th is now unlikely to play to a scoring average of ½ a stroke under par, the back-nine at TPC Craig Ranch projects to be the more difficult half of the course by some distance. Not only has its easiest hole been taken away, but it also features the most difficult hole on the course (16), and only two of the six easiest holes (14 and 18).

By contrast, the back half of the front nine (holes 5-9) features the clearest scoring opportunities in close proximity to one another. The 5th and 9th are both reachable par fives with birdie or better rates of 54 and 49%, and the sixth hole is a reachable par four with a scoring average of 3.61. The 7th and 8th holes both look daunting on the scorecard, but have played to a cumulative scoring average of (-0.08) in two years. 

This is a stretch I expect to see a ton of birdies made, and could very well catapult many back-nine starters from the middle of the pack into the thick of contention. This is where I see the clearest buy-low opportunity in the live market. 

For players starting on 10 on Thursday and Friday, the first 13 holes on their routing feature the four most difficult holes on the golf course, and they won’t reach the extremely gettable closing stretch until the very end of their day. 

With the first-round leader reaching marks of (-9) and (-12) in two years, there is a considerable chance that a few big names could find themselves five or six shots back heading into this crucial stretch. The difference between an opening 69 and an opening 65 could be made right here, and books aren’t likely to be too in tune with where a player's upside truly sits as he’s mired back at two or three-under through 13 holes. 

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Tom Kim (22-1)

After a pretty distinct downturn in his results in February and March, Tom Kim looks like he’s finally found a hint of the ball-striking form that catapulted him onto the world stage last summer. 

His 9 strokes gained from tee-to-green at Quail Hollow marked the best performance he’s had in that department since the Rocket Mortgage Classic last August, and the 4 shots he gained on approach was his best mark since last October’s CJ Cup. 

The 20-year-old Korean has now finished 23rd and 16th at two golf courses (Augusta National and Quail Hollow), which many would have deemed too long for him when he first came on Tour, and the underlying stats tell an even more exciting story.

Last week, Kim hit the ball longer than he ever has in his short PGA Tour career - ranking right between Patrick Cantlay and Rickie Fowler in driving distance for the week, and he did so whilst ranking inside the top 25 in Good Drive %. His ability to tailor his off-the-tee game to the course put in front of him makes him a viable option at a much wider variety of tracks than the short courses we've seen him dominate in the past.

Given Craig Ranch's bias towards driving distance, I'd expect to see more of this new swing this week, and if the irons are truly back to peak form, Tom has a ceiling only matched by the guy sitting at 3-1 on most odds boards. He's done his best work to date in these birdie shootouts (2nd in Strokes Gained in Easy Scoring Conditions). This should be a great spot for the season to officially get back on the rails.

Tom Hoge (50-1)

After one of his worst performances in recent memory at the Heritage, Hoge got back to his usual ball-striking ways alongside teammate Harris English at the Zurich Classic. Hoge gained over seven shots between the irons and putter in New Orleans, which will serve as a great blueprint for this week's shootout in Dallas.

Hoge still rates out as the best iron player in the field over the last eight months (#1 in SG: APP, Birdie Opportunities Gained, and Proximity from 200 yards-plus), and he's 3rd in Total Strokes Gained in Easy Scoring Conditions. When he gets hot, there aren't many players on the planet that can keep pace.

Stephan Jaeger (50-1)

Speaking of getting hot, there aren't many players in the world coming into this week with the confidence Stephan Jaeger has. The 33-year-old German has put together two of the best tee-to-green weeks of his PGA Tour career in Charlotte and Mexico, and only Scottie Scheffler and Tyrrell Hatton rate out as better ball-strikers over the last three months.

A six-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour from 2016-21, Jaeger hasn't quite been able to translate that success onto the big stage, but these recent gains suggest that a breakout is coming soon.

The only thing holding him back over the last few months has been the flat stick, as he's currently in the midst of a ten-start stretch where he's lost strokes on the greens. However, Jaeger has proven to be a streakier putter over the course of his career - as before this run of bad form, he gained strokes in 8 of 9 starts on the greens last fall.

You don't win six times on the Korn Ferry Tour without the ability to pile on birdies. If the putter gets rolling again this week, you can be confident that Jaeger's in for a big week.

Davis Riley (55-1)

Another former KFT stud with some ball-striking chops, Davis Riley has found it difficult to replicate his phenomenal run of five consecutive top 15s last summer. However, just two weeks removed from his Zurich win with teammate Nick Hardy, and back at a venue where he shot (-21) in his final three rounds last year, Riley represents some enticing potential at 55-1 in this field.

Trailing just Kim and Hoge in long-term iron metrics (6th in Prox: 200+, 11th in SG: APP, 8th in Birdie Opportunites Gained since last August), Riley represents the exact type of profile I'm looking for in this week's race to 25-under. If the putter can be just a fraction of what it was down the stretch in NOLA, Riley could be in for his much-awaited solo PGA breakthrough in Dallas

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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