Five Starting Pitchers To Target In 2023 Fantasy Baseball Drafts

February 27, 2023

Casey Wilson looks at five fantasy baseball starting pitcher sleepers to target for 2023 fantasy baseball drafts. These SPs are undervalued and have upside.

Regarding fantasy baseball and constructing the most competitive roster to win a championship, there is no position more impactful to that outcome than starting pitching. Starting pitching makes up the highest percentage of your roster, and being able to hit on that in drafts will ultimately be why you will hold up your league trophy in October.

Today, we will discuss options for you at different phases of the draft to help make sure your starting pitching room provides you with a good mix of safety and upside. We will discuss the best options, using their ADP, as you progress through your drafts, making sure we can find a good balance of quality arms while allowing you to still make a stout position player room on your team.

The five pitchers below, at their current ADP, all provide the value needed to help us win our leagues and still be able to compile a great group of hitters. Sure, five pitchers are not enough to fill out our starting pitcher spots on our rosters, but securing these five guys will give us a good start while being able to target them in different parts of our drafts.

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Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees

ADP: 46

Carlos Rodón enters 2023 wearing the daunted pinstripes and will look to help bring back a World Series to the Bronx after signing a six-year, 162-million-dollar deal this offseason. Rodón makes the Yankees rotation one of baseball's tops heading into this 2023 campaign. He will be joining the likes of Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino.

Rodón is coming off back-to-back seasons in which his numbers would suggest he is one of the true dominant aces at our disposal. In 2021, he finished fifth in Cy Young voting, and in 2022, he finished sixth. He earned his first two All-Star appearances during that span.

At 30 years old and coming off his most innings, there is some reason to be concerned, but the numbers do not lie, and like Jacob deGrom's surge in his early thirties, Rodón seems only to be getting better with age. Let's peek at Rodón's last two seasons and compare them to CUTTER and ATC projections for 2023.

• 2021: 13-5, 2.37 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 185 strikeouts, 132.2 innings pitched
• 2022: 14-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 strikeouts, 178 innings pitched
• CUTTER 2023: 15-8, 3.48 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 224 strikeouts, 174 innings pitched
• ATC 2023: 13-8, 3.06 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 220 strikeouts, 171 innings pitched

Although it looks like CUTTER and ATC project Rodón to have a slight dip in production, it is nothing alarming as his strikeouts still look to be there. The Yankees will be one of the MLB's most dominant teams. Hence, hitting the ceiling in wins is achievable and assumably should mean more quality starts in the process. Rodón has posted his best two seasons in back-to-back years regarding BB%, and the command shows no signs of falling off.

The only noticeable concern in advanced data is that his GB% has slowly decreased. That said, his home run-to-fly ball percentage was at a career low. An explanation for the decline is a change in how often he started throwing his four-seam fastball, a pitch he uses in the upper half of the zone often. In 2021, we saw a 9% increase in how often that pitch was thrown. In 2022, we saw another 3% increase. Intriguingly, in 2021, we saw a 6% decrease in GB%, and in 2022, the same 3% decrease.

Rodón has become a top-end starter because of how elite his four-seam fastball is. Last season, he led baseball with 135 strikeouts off this pitch. It also has a -22 run value, ranking it the fifth-best pitch in all of the MLB. He throws his heater 61.2% of the time, allowing him to deploy one of the best pitches in baseball at an extremely high rate. As long as his velocity stays in the 95 mph range instead of the 92 mph range, a jump he made in 2021, his fastball should continue to rank at an elite level.

The current ADP for Rodón has him as the 12th starting pitcher off the board. Both CUTTER and ATC projection systems have Rodón ranked 12th-best starting pitcher. He's being drafted after Aaron Nola, Dylan Cease, Jacob DeGrom, Justin Verlander, Sandy Alcantara, Shane McClanahan, and Spencer Strider. There are cases to be made that he should have a higher ADP than them all. Taking him anywhere as early as the seventh or eighth starting pitcher off the board is viable.

Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians

ADP: 92

Triston McKenzie burst onto the scene in 2022. In his sophomore campaign in the big leagues, McKenzie posted a 2.96 ERA, making 30 starts and throwing 191.1 innings. McKenzie, who debuted in 2020, made significant improvements in 2022, turning him into a high-end starting pitcher to anchor our fantasy teams this year.

McKenzie posted an 11-11 record in 2022, with a 2.96 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, 25.6% K, and a 5.9% BB. After the All-Star break, he had a 3.35 xFIP, 27.2% K, and a 4.9% BB. He only got stronger as the season progressed, saving two of his best outings for the postseason. In his two combined postseason starts against the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees, he had a 3.27 ERA with 13 Ks and three BBs in 11.0 IP. 

The BB% was the most significant difference in his success in 2022 statistically. He dropped his walk rate by almost seven percent from 2021, bringing his rate closer to what it was throughout his minor league career, where his command was always a strong point. The 27.2% K in the second half of the season was also very encouraging as that is closer to what we have seen his entire career. This could even take a step forward as he gains weight and gets stronger, improving velocity and spin rate.

From a pitch data standpoint, McKenzie also made a significant adjustment in 2022, leading to more success. He ultimately got rid of his changeup, deploying a three-pitch, a four-seam fastball, curveball, and slider. He throws his heater 56% of the time and his curveball and slider around 23% of the time. What made him so effective was changing the shape of his breaking balls to aid his four-seam fastball, which he likes to attack up in the zone with.

In 2021, his curveball and slider were very similar in vertical movement and the opposite in horizontal movement. In 2022, it was just the opposite, where the two became more alike in horizontal movement and dissimilar in vertical movement. This change was significant for him as he used his fastball up in the zone at a high rate. Creating more deception on vertical depth on these two pitches plays up to his fastball more, as he can now change hitters' eye levels more effectively, ultimately creating more swings and misses.

The adjustment ultimately made McKenzie ditch his slider to left-hand hitters and primarily focus on attacking them with his curveball. This led to his best season against lefties as a pro, dominating them to a .194 BAA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 28.0% K. We can only hope the slider continues to improve, as he had a .271 BAA and a .500 SLG on that pitch to all hitters last season.

McKenzie is being taken at an ADP of 92. He falls in the same tier with Cristian Javier, Kevin Gausman, Max Fried, Robbie Ray, Tyler Glasnow, and company. He has a top 10 upside at the position. He's everything you want in an ace and anchor on your fantasy team. He will get you wins, quality starts, and strikeouts while maintaining a sound ERA and WHIP. He is primed for another big season in 2023, and in the same ADP as others with a lot more risk. McKenzie provides us with a safe floor while not costing us a ceiling.

Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees

ADP: 113

Nestor Cortes may provide the most value of any pitcher at his current ADP. In 2022, he made 28 starts for the Yankees, where he was 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 26.5% K, and a 6.2% BB. His 2021 season, although a smaller sample size, was just as dominant. Cortes went 2-3 in half as many starts, posting a 3.32 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 27.5% K, and a 6.7% BB.

If we look at our own RotoBaller writer Eric Cross's tweet below, Cortes is on a short list of starting pitchers with an ERA under 3.00, a strikeout rate over 25%, and over 90 innings pitched in 2021 and 2022. For comparison, the others on the list include Corbin Burnes (16 ADP), Carlos Rodón (46 ADP), Max Scherzer (50 ADP), and Zack Wheeler (54 ADP), all of whom are being drafted at least 50 spots ahead of Cortes.

Cortes, like Rodón, has an elite four-seam fastball that ranks as the fifth-best pitch in the MLB with a -22 run value. In 2021, Cortes introduced a cutter to his arsenal, which has now blossomed into his second-best pitch. In 2022, he threw both of these pitches a combined 73.7% of the time. The two pitches averaged .174 BAA and .331 SLG, combining for 130 strikeouts. 

The cutter was introduced to help prevent damage against right-handed hitters, and that is precisely what it has done. In 2022, Cortes held righties to a .202 BAA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 24.7% K. In comparison, in 2019, his only season above 40 IP before introducing the cutter, righties had a .249 BAA, 1.40 WHIP, and a 23.1% K. In 2022, he threw his cutter 734 times, 665 of those pitches were to righties.

Cortes' current ADP is 113. Based on the data above, he should be no worse than 75 ADP, making him the best starting pitcher value in the top 10-15 rounds of drafts.

Garrett Whitlock, Boston Red Sox

ADP: 277

Garrett Whitlock enters the 2023 season hoping to earn an everyday role in the Red Sox rotation. In 2022, Whitlock appeared in 31 games and had nine starts. He finished the season with a 4-2 record, including six saves, a 3.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, .220 BAA, 26.4% K, and a minuscule 4.8% BB. He did struggle a bit as a starter. In his nine starts, he had a 4.15 ERA, .261 BAA, 1.26 WHIP, 23.2% K, and a 5.5% BB. These numbers are a bit more pedestrian and align with his current ADP.

If we project something between what he did as a starter and reliever, it aligns with CUTTER and ATC projections, creating value and upside at the current ADP. As reported by Christopher Smith, the Red Sox plan to have Whitlock in the rotation and move Tanner Houck to the pen, meaning it is Whitlock's job to lose.

The stuff is there for Whitlock to excel as a starter and be able to pitch deep into games. He lives off a sinker which, in 2022, he threw at a 59.3% rate—helping him create a 40.8% GB in the process. His groundball rate will help him induce double plays to pitch deeper into games and will inevitability help him keep runs off the scoreboard.

He has a three-pitch mix, as he only threw his 4-seam fastball 34 times last season. His slider is his best swing-and-miss pitch, possessing a 45.8% whiff. With that comes a .308 BAA and a .577 SLG. Improving the consistency of limiting damage when contact is made on this pitch is critical to his success. His changeup may be his best out pitch as it limited hitters to a .113 BAA and .225 SLG. If the slider gets anywhere near the rates of his changeup, his ceiling will be immense.

The stuff is there for Whitlock, but inevitably the key is if he will get the innings to let his stuff translate to an entire season. As we discussed earlier, he will get that chance, and at the current ADP, that assumption has a ton of value. We hope he performs and sustains a rotation spot in 2023 for the Boston Red Sox.

David Peterson, New York Mets

ADP: 399

Last, but certainly not least, comes the lefty out of Oregon, David Peterson, currently of the New York Mets. We aren't just looking for fillers at this point in the draft. We are looking for impact players with vast upside. Peterson fits the mold more than most because of his massive strikeout potential. He also has a very encouraging GB%, with a 48.2 career average, only getting better each season.

Peterson finished 2022 with a 7-5 record, making 19 starts where he put up a 3.83 ERA, .233 BAA, 1.33 WHIP, 27.8% K, and a 10.6% BB. The walks are a significant concern, but the ground balls and strikeouts should help limit the damage. We're considering Peterson mainly because of the strikeouts, so let's get to why we're all here.

In 2022, Peterson was 41st in Whiff% and 43rd in K%. Remember, this includes relief pitchers since Peterson didn't face enough batters to qualify. Peterson's Whiff% sits in the same range as Brandon Woodruff (34 ADP), Carlos Rodón (46 ADP), Max Scherzer (50 ADP), Cristian Javier (67 ADP), and fantasy darling Nick Lodolo (131 ADP). His K% sits around Aaron Nola (38 ADP), Justin Verlander (44 ADP), Kevin Gausman (63 ADP), and Robbie Ray (100 ADP).

To say his strikeouts give him immense upside is an understatement. David Peterson is going at an ADP of 399. That is more than 350 spots lower than some on the list above. Sure, he has more holes in his game than the guys listed, but in an excellent pitching environment on a great Mets team, all he needs is an opportunity, and he has a chance to become an every-week fantasy starter for us.

The Mets announced Peterson would begin Spring training to be stretched out as a starter, according to Anthony Dicomo, Mets beat writer for MLB.com. This could mean one of two things: he will win a rotation spot for the Mets in Spring training or stay ready in Triple-A Syracuse.

At pick 399, few risks are involved in taking a chance on the current ADP. You never know what will develop during the Spring. At worst, we add a standout prospect from Spring training on our waiver wire and drop him if he starts in Triple-A.

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